Fri: SW 20.3m; MIB 8.3m; TA 5.65m/Sat DHD: SW 21.5m; MIB 12m; TA 9m

[Shawn Robbins]

For Madagascar 3, $60m should be doable, possibly even as high as The Lorax.

Wow... that would be interesting to say the least. I'm a little more bearish on it due to the relatively poor reception of the second film and Cars 2 / KFP2's performances last year.

[Bitcher]

Prometheus will definitely open above 40M (really anything below 45 will be disappointing) but it'll most likely have as much legs as Watchmen. As in, none.

[Ozymandias]

If Prometheus opened above Inception that would the coolest thing ever, being an R-rated space horror flick. I do think its very possible, but far from a lock.

[Shawn Robbins]

Prometheus will definitely open above 40M (really anything below 45 will be disappointing) but it'll most likely have as much legs as Watchmen. As in, none.

That would suck.

[ddddeeee]

I would be astonished if Prometheus' CS is above a B-. The ending is the worst part and will be fresh in their minds.

[Moviefanatic]

Prometheus will definitely open above 40M (really anything below 45 will be disappointing) but it'll most likely have as much legs as Watchmen. As in, none.

I said the same thing about this behaving like Watchmen domestically. Nice opening. Very quick exit.

[lab276]

Wow... that would be interesting to say the least. I'm a little more bearish on it due to the relatively poor reception of the second film and Cars 2 / KFP2's performances last year.

There's no doubt that animation in general is in a much better state this year compared to last year, not to mention the lack of similar films since The Lorax compared to last year when you had Hop and Rio doing well up until KFP2 opened. The reviews for it are generally positive for the moment. Maybe $70m is too high, but I don't see why $60m should be out of reach.

[lab276]

I can't believe I'm now providing arguments as to why Madagascar 3 will break out. I gave it so much shit before.

Edited June 3, 2012 by lab276

[Chewy]

I still remember people were trying to claim Watchmen's legs were mostly down to the hard R rating, and not ridiculously bad WOM. Then Green Lantern came along and basically duplicated its run

[Gopher]

I think the good hold for MIB3 shows how desperate the family market is right now. Kids movies this year have mostly broken out to some degree (Journey, Lorax, Stooges) because they're so few and far between. The door's wide open for Madagascar this weekend. I'll go a little conservative because I don't think teens/young adults will drive this one as much as the last two, but 60m wouldn't surprise me. I don't know whether to compare Prometheus to Watchmen or Super 8. Reviews between the three are very similar. It certainly won't have the legs that the latter film had, though. I'm also weary of Snow White's WOM because no one seems to love the movie and Prometheus should be pretty direct competition. Should drop in the mid fifties. I see next weekend looking something like this- Madagascar- 56m Prometheus- 48m Snow White- 25m Men in Black- 16m Avengers- 11.5m

[lab276]

Snow White- 25m

I'm expecting about the same.

[CJohn]

So many big numbers for Madagascar 3. I am predicting something around 35M, tbh.

[Shawn Robbins]

There's no doubt that animation in general is in a much better state this year compared to last year, not to mention the lack of similar films since The Lorax compared to last year when you had Hop and Rio doing well up until KFP2 opened. The reviews for it are generally positive for the moment. Maybe $70m is too high, but I don't see why $60m should be out of reach.

I don't think that can be said yet. The Lorax alone isn't enough of a sample to know where the animation genre stands right now. I do agree that less offerings in the genre is good news for M3, but, even Panda 2 and Cars 2 were sequels to very well liked family films and they didn't just disappoint ... they REALLY disappointed. With Mad2's poor legs and Brave just around the corner, I'm hesitant to say it can break out anywhere near the level of The Lorax (which had a lot going for it).But stranger things have happened. Edited June 3, 2012 by ShawnMR

[JonnyCraig]

Here are my big predicts:Prometheus - 40-50 (the lowest I can see it going is 37-39 and a 50+ opening requires monster WOM, 140 DOM finish and 200m OS seems fairly likely)Madagascar 3 - 45 (DOM is unpredictable due to Brave coming out two weeks after, OS will follow pattern of previous entries)SW- 24.5 (steeper U.S. drop due to mixed WOM and the fact that the rush might have had something to do with crossover from Twilight due to Kristen Stewart, 150m DOM, 400 WW)MIB 3 - 15 (looks to cross 180 since comps to MIB 2 are unfair, as that had a 5 day weekend and opened in July and the gap will narrow due to superior WOM, 500+ WW is looking fairly likely too)

Edited June 3, 2012 by JonnyCraig

[RTX]

Prometheus will definitely open above 40M (really anything below 45 will be disappointing) but it'll most likely have as much legs as Watchmen. As in, none.

No chance of this happening. Prometheus is leagues ahead of Watchmen in terms of quality and mainstream appeal. The biggest difference is that Prometheus is not a comic book film.

[rcalcagn]

I still remember people were trying to claim Watchmen's legs were mostly down to the hard R rating, and not ridiculously bad WOM. Then Green Lantern came along and basically duplicated its run

The difference I always felt wasn't quite its hard R rating as much the kind of R rating it was. To me at least it seemed like the majority of people's complaints about the movie had to do with Dr Manhatten's radioactive junk. Seriously, anyone I knew who was told that about the movie and hadn't read the comic previously was immediately turned off by the movie.

[Shawn Robbins]

The difference I always felt wasn't quite its hard R rating as much the kind of R rating it was. To me at least it seemed like the majority of people's complaints about the movie had to do with Dr Manhatten's radioactive junk. Seriously, anyone I knew who was told that about the movie and hadn't read the comic previously was immediately turned off by the movie.

That was definitely an unnecessary adherence to the source material in terms of a big budget movie. But honestly, the film had other problems that turned off people too. The only reason it even opened so high was because of mainstream audiences who loved 300. Watchmen wasn't popular enough in its own right to generate that kind of opening weekend just from a fan base alone.

[Ozymandias]

No chance of this happening. Prometheus is leagues ahead of Watchmen in terms of quality and mainstream appeal. The biggest difference is that Prometheus is not a comic book film.

I agree, no comparison at all. I'm thinking more like District 9 legs honestly.

[Gopher]

So many big numbers for Madagascar 3. I am predicting something around 35M, tbh.

I was downplaying Madagascar for a while, too. But Madagascar 2's opening adjusts to ~80m with inflation/3D. To suggest it won't sell half as many tickets, when the market is this barren, doesn't make sense to me anymore.Yes, Panda 2/Cars 2 compare poorly to their predecessors when factoring in inflation, but during neither of those openings was the family market as empty as it is now. Rio saturated the animation market for Panda, not to mention it had Pirates on its heels, and there was plenty of family fare in the marketplace when Cars opened.

[RTX]

I feel like its somewhere in between those two films on the "hype" scale. As well-known as Scott is, I don't think his name is as intriguing to audiences as Nolan's was in 2010 (or now for that matter). But at the same time, the film seems to have a broader appeal than Super 8.

Prometheus built-in audience is probably even bigger than Inception (Scott + Alien is more popular than Nolan + Dicaprio at least in North America). The marketing has been outstanding. I think matching Inception opening in admissions is a far shot, but 60M OW is definitely possible.