South Korea Box Office

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

IMO the worst case scenario now is following War for the Planet of the Apes which had a 89% CGV and opened on a holiday Tuesday in 2017 with heavy competition, it dropped like this

Day Adm. %YD Oppenheimer Tue 568308   552900 Wed 159618 -72% 155290 Thu 123108 -23% 119770 Fri 139591 +13% 135806 Sat 283207 +103% 275529 Sun 260690 -8% 253622 Mon 71141 -73% 69212 Oweek 1605663   1562130

 

The best case would be following Logan which had a 96% CGV and opened on a holiday Wednesday in 2017 to this

Day	Adm.	%YD	Oppenheimer
Wed	256255		552900
Thu	91603	-64%	197644
Fri	120875	+32%	260802
Sat	269116	+123%	580649
Sun	243001	-10%	524303
Mon	87367	-64%	188504
Tue	78915	-10%	170268
Oweek	1147132		2475070

 

Obviously the dates don't perfectly line up here but the Wed -> Thu drop for Logan should be somewhat comparable to the Tue -> Wed drop for Oppy. I'd be surprised if Oppy drops this well tomorrow though since it's been a weekend movie in every market pretty much. I'm thinking around 2m (~$16m) for the OWeek, what do you guys think?

 

 

 

[cannastop]

15 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Naver - 8.60 (Split 8.61 M / 8.62 F) 

Megabox - 8.9⭐

 

I hope walk-up gets better tomorrow as I want 10M admits for Oppenheimer here - 

Maybe it can beat Interstellar, if your hope comes true. Biggest Nolan movie ever, and in the top 10 foreign movies in South Korea.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Oppy's CGV start for tomorrow is 36,000 (-77%)

 

 

 

 

[MrPink]

Ratings don't seem particularly strong to me, what kind of total do we think is possible if it does around 2m opening week?

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

8 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Ratings don't seem particularly strong to me, what kind of total do we think is possible if it does around 2m opening week?

2x OWeek seems like a good multi in this market, in exceptional cases you can go higher (GOTG3 did 2.3x on a 98% CGV, Avatar 2 did 3.38x on a 96% CGV, Elemental will probably do 11x on a 98% CGV but that's obviously not happening here). I could see it playing like an Avatar 2-lite and try for 3x if there's a lot of backloading for PLFs but at the same time the walkups might be weaker since it's not as GA-friendly. There's also not much competition in the upcoming weeks which will help.

Edited August 15, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[MrPink]

Just now, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

2x OWeek seems like a good multi in this market, in exceptional cases you can go higher (GOTG3 did 2.3x on a 98% CGV, Avatar 2 did 3.38x on a 96% CGV, Elemental will probably do 11x on a 98% CGV but that's obviously not happening here). I could see it playing like an Avatar 2-lite and try for 3x if there's a lot of backloading for PLFs but at the same time the walkups might be weaker since it's not as GA-friendly.

 

So somewhere around 30-40m might be a reasonable expectation I guess. That will probably be enough to get it around 850m WW.

[TalismanRing]

Aug 15, 2023: TUESDAY

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Oppenheimer U.S.	Aug 15, 2023	$4,315,290 ($4,323,233)	552,894 (553,518)	1,607	44.21%
2		Concrete Utopia South Korea	Aug 09, 2023	$2,242,344 ($15,611,746)	303,069 (2,136,468)	1,133	22.97%
3		HONEYSWEET South Korea	Aug 15, 2023	$897,586 ($967,590)	122,191 (132,643)	779	9.19%
4		Smugglers South Korea	Jul 26, 2023	$716,715 ($33,026,008)	96,408 (4,569,762)	797	7.34%
5		Elemental U.S.	Jun 14, 2023	$533,795 ($49,774,347)	71,725 (6,767,220)	632	5.46%
6		Meg 2: The Trench U.S.	Aug 15, 2023	$332,688 ($335,289)	42,221 (42,575)	407	3.4%
7		A Man of Reason South Korea	Aug 15, 2023	$306,584 ($335,399)	40,210 (44,100)	685	3.14%
8		Octonauts: Above and Beyond U.K.	Aug 10, 2023	$89,518 ($369,798)	12,958 (55,624)	216	0.91%
9		Ransomed South Korea	Aug 02, 2023	$74,470 ($7,370,729)	10,561 (1,022,207)	342	0.76%
10		Running Man : Revengers South Korea	Aug 10, 2023	$52,125 ($229,078)	7,888 (36,193)	186	0.53%

[Giorno]

36 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Maybe it can beat Interstellar, if your hope comes true. Biggest Nolan movie ever, and in the top 10 foreign movies in South Korea.

10m admissions doesn't seem feasible with the scores that it's gotten, I think 5 is a good number to aim for 

[Issac Newton]

 

Just based on ratings, Koreans clearly like this movie pic.twitter.com/UQ2WR7q9WE

— 본드 (@SxFisthebest) August 15, 2023

 

 

 

A long-term box office hit may be difficult

— 본드 (@SxFisthebest) August 15, 2023

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

 

Only 2k Koreans were able to participate in Barbenheimer today

 

 

[eeetooki]

36 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I feel like this is a good indication of how it will do in China too.

[upriser7]

 

[keysersoze123]

I am hoping it does at least 40m in Korea. It all depends on how long it has Imax/PLF and how well it holds over there. Only time will tell. 

[mr1006]

The biggest complaints on CGV seem to be:

• it's long and boring (e.g., not a lot of action)
• it's hard to understand without prior knowledge about US politics
• there are too many characters, and it's hard to follow if you don't have background knowledge about the Manhattan Project
• the nude scene 

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, mr1006 said:

t's hard to understand without prior knowledge about US politics

yeah I mean there were parts I didn't really know about. I didn't have any idea who the Strauss guy was before seeing the movie. I can understand being overwhelmed if you have no idea about US politics though.

 

Quote

• there are too many characters, and it's hard to follow if you don't have background knowledge about the Manhattan Project

I think it helps that the vast majority of the movie centers on Oppenheimer himself.

 

Like I know there's this guy named Richard Feynman who worked on the Manhattan Project but I don't know who he is in the movie.

Edited August 16, 2023 by cannastop

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, mr1006 said:

The biggest complaints on CGV seem to be:

• it's long and boring (e.g., not a lot of action)
• it's hard to understand without prior knowledge about US politics
• there are too many characters, and it's hard to follow if you don't have background knowledge about the Manhattan Project
• the nude scene 

These are all exact same things it had in India. Korea and India are so similar in many regards. Its a shame cinemas from both countries don’t travel much between them.

 

That said, being a Nolan film, it got way more audience than a WW2 psychological thriller would have got, so WOM will be mixed. India still trended well, expect the same here.

[charlie Jatinder]

I didn’t follow CGV yday, nor I see anyone filling Pre-sales sheet. @pepsa booo.

 

Guess will do around 75-80K today for 175-200K.

550

175

150

200

425

375 // 1.85-1.9M ish I guess.

 

Full run could be 5M+.

Edited August 16, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[eeetooki]

6 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

These are all exact same things it had in India. Korea and India are so similar in many regards. Its a shame cinemas from both countries don’t travel much between them.

 

That said, being a Nolan film, it got way more audience than a WW2 psychological thriller would have got, so WOM will be mixed. India still trended well, expect the same here.

It's the same complaints I have seen on Chinese social media, from Chinese overseas who have seen the movie in other countries. They also had an additional complaint of the English being hard to understand without subtitles, but I suppose this issue should be resolved when it actually releases in China.

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

It's the same complaints I have seen on Chinese social media, from Chinese overseas who have seen the movie in other countries. They also had an additional complaint of the English being hard to understand without subtitles, but I suppose this issue should be resolved when it actually releases in China.

I myself had issues without subtitles, so I am waiting for digital release to watch it properly.

[The GOAT]

6 hours ago, mr1006 said:

• the nude scene 

I'm curious, what did they say about it?