Legion Again Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Olive said: night shows should be stronger than OD Exactly what I was assuming, but prompt expert confirmation is much appreciated. So that 265k, -42.5% should serve as more of a lower bound than the expected value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 minute ago, LexJoker said: Is that usually a holiday? nope. it's just you can see movie at cheaper price(-50%) betwen 5~9PM. that's all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Just now, Thanos Legion said: Exactly what I was assuming, but prompt expert confirmation is much appreciated. So that 265k, -42.5% should serve as more of a lower bound than the expected value. 14:20 update indeed better than 13:20. so there's hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 I hope it picks up at night. The WoM seems decent. Do not expect a 40%-ish drop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) 2PM+linear extrapolation from OD timing leads to a pretty unreliable number. I wanted to do the math cause I just like multiplying stuff, but for a good estimate we really need another half dozen hours or so I think. Edited March 7, 2019 by Thanos Legion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) 15:20 93k (+7k) -42.2% Edited March 7, 2019 by imbruglia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LexJoker Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 So its going to drop in the 35-40% range today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) 16:20 102,000(+9k) -40.3% Edited March 7, 2019 by imbruglia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) 50 minutes ago, LexJoker said: So its going to drop in the 35-40% range today? 30-35 I'd guess. Could still use another several hours to hone in. Edited March 7, 2019 by Thanos Legion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) failed Edited March 7, 2019 by feasby007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=0 So, @Thanos Legion, it seems that a linear extrapolation won't be enough, since it's gained on every hour since yesterday so far. Raw data: Wednesday, 6 March Thursday, 7 March Time Adm. Time Adm. 09:20 113,000 09:20 57,000 10:20 119,000 10:20 62,000 11:20 125,000 11:20 66,000 12:20 132,000 12:20 71,000 13:20 140,000 13:20 78,000 14:20 150,000 14:20 85,000 15:20 161,000 15:20 93,000 16:20 171,000 16:20 101,000 17:20 182,000 17:20 18:20 192,000 18:20 19:20 202,000 19:20 20:20 211,000 20:20 21:20 218,000 21:20 22:20 224,000 22:20 23:20 229,000 23:20 Actual: 460,857 Actual: Percentages: predictions based on yesterday 09:20 24.5% 232468 10:20 25.8% 240110 7643 11:20 27.1% 243332 3222 12:20 28.6% 247885 4553 13:20 30.4% 256763 8878 14:20 32.5% 261152 4389 15:20 34.9% 266209 5057 16:20 37.1% 272202 5993 17:20 39.5% 0 18:20 41.7% 0 19:20 43.8% 0 20:20 45.8% 0 21:20 47.3% 0 22:20 48.6% 0 23:20 49.7% 0 So what we see in the bottom right is the linear extrapolation of what the final total will be, as you can see this has increased every hour relative to yesterday by 4k+. I think this is primarily due to presales being a smaller % of the sales today, but using Olive's news of evenings being stronger I could see something like this: +6k rel. to yesterday from 5:20-9:20 then +3k as sharp cut off, giving 272k + 5*6k + 2*3k = aroudn 310k for today, which would be a -33% drop off, steeper than AM2. we'll see how it progresses. Here's the Thursday table with the predictions put in: Thursday, 7 March Time Adm. 09:20 57,000 10:20 62,000 11:20 66,000 12:20 71,000 13:20 78,000 14:20 85,000 15:20 93,000 16:20 101,000 17:20 109,867 18:20 118,403 19:20 127,200 20:20 135,614 21:20 142,951 22:20 148,344 23:20 153,146 Actual: 312,542 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) 17:20 11.1k -39% Also CM OD was new reocrd, "biggest March OD". previous was 386k in 2017(holiday release) Edited March 7, 2019 by imbruglia 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 here is 2014~2018 March release, some of foreign movie's opening wks. Beauty and the Beast 2017 (5,138,328) *Biggest March release record 3-16(Thu) 166,930 3-17(Fri) 234,961 +40.8% 3-18(Sat) 602,569 +156.5% 3-19(Sun) 564,477 -6.3% = 1,571,430 *Biggest opening week record including local movies Pacific Rim 2 2018 (1,077,235) 3-21(Wed) 114,862 3-22(Thu) 87,997 -23.4% 3-23(Fri) 119,455 +35.7% 3-24(Sat) 296,735 +148.4% 3-25(Sun) 239,152 -19.4% =858,401 Ready Player One 2018 (2,254,430) 3-28(Wed) 149,784 *Culture day 3-29(Thu) 91,641 -38.8% 3-30(Fri) 134,675 +47% 3-31(Sat) 323,881 +140.5% 4-01(Sun) 283,181 -12.6% =986,709 Logan 2017 (2,169,109) 2-28(Tue) 97,9943-01(Wed) 256,255 +161.5% *Holiday 3-02(Thu) 91,603 -64.3% 3-03(Fri) 120,875 +32% 3-04(Sat) 269,110 +122.6% 3-05(Sun) 242,997 -9.7% =1,079,865 Kong Skull Island 2017 (1,689,717) 3-08(Wed) 93,804 3-09(Thu) 89,323 -4.8% 3-10(Fri) 120,878 +35.3% 3-11(Sat) 365,391 +202.3% 3-12(Sun) 336,936 -7.8% =1,011,350 BvS 2016 (2,256,913) 3-23(Wed) 18,4353-24(Thu) 219,794 3-25(Fri) 228,198 +3.8% 3-26(Sat) 511,107 +124% 3-27(Sun) 408,709 -20% = 1,386,658 Noah 2014 (2,026,574) 3-20(Thu) 177,380 3-21(Fri) 191,246 +7.8% 3-22(Sat) 416,632 +117.9% 3-23(Sun) 342,950 -17.7% =1,133,153 Captain America Winter Soldier 2014 (3,963,964) 3-26(Wed) 166,787 *Culture day 3-27(Thu) 135,839 -18.6% 3-28(Fri) 211,127 +55.4% 3-29(Sat) 514,736 +143.8% 3-30(Sun) 444,520 -13.6% = 1,473,941 march is really slow month, no movie had that huge pre-sale and also Big "OD" like CM. so hard to predict CM's run. it will easily break biggest march opening week tho. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 18:20 12.1k(+10k) -36.9% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, imbruglia said: 18:20 12.1k(+10k) -36.9% how is the word of mouth there and also any idea about the ow Edited March 7, 2019 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) Biggest March Thursday 2012-03-01 Love Piction 271,196 *Holiday 2018-03-01 The Princess and the Matchmaker 254,670 *Holiday 2016-03-16 BvS 219,794 Biggest March Friday 2013-03-01 New World 307,805 *Holiday 2017-03-17 Beauty and the Beast 234,961 2016-03-17 BvS 228,198 so far CM's Boxoffice Record is Fastest Passing 100k/200k/300k presale for Marvel solo movie Highest presale for Marvel solo movie Highest presale for March release Biggest March Opening Day Biggest March Wednesday Edited March 7, 2019 by imbruglia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, john2000 said: how is the word of mouth there and also any idea about the ow wom is okay and there's nothing to see right now other than this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/htmlview has been drastically improving throughout the evening so far, looking at sub 30% drop now along lines of AM2. Finishing around 330k I guess. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 4 hours ago, imbruglia said: what do you mean by summer days? it was july release so it was released in summer -> bigger audience in general. July and August is busiest month for movie in korea while march is one of weakest. I was thinking mabye thursday to friday bump would be bigger because if more people are still in school. Just like in the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Man, and to think I edited my post from 25-35 to 30-35 because I didn't want to look like some crazy optimistic fanboy 😅 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
