South Korea Box Office

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, UserHN said:

So for an expectation of more than 500K, CM is still currently at 32K? Isn't that bad?

Thats why I said it didn't seem right. No way this does less than 300k today like there is litarly no way. So that 32k would be wrong.

[terrestrial]

21 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Once reviews start to come in, you can see them here http://moviestory.cgv.co.kr/fanpage/mainView?movieIdx=81533&iTab=2

It seems to have a rather high female % for a CBM in those presales or reviews or....?

52% female if I understand it right. If its about reviews, at IMDb in the past the action/SH/CBMs had 10-15% female raters then.

I know MCU movies in the US can have high female %, is that typical for SK?

[ZeeSoh]

19 minutes ago, UserHN said:

So for an expectation of more than 500K, CM is still currently at 32K? Isn't that bad?

 

14 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Thats why I said it didn't seem right. No way this does less than 300k today like there is litarly no way. So that 32k would be wrong.

It's not at 32k. That number is incorrect. 

Cgv is the theatre chain that used to have live numbers. Generally their numbers were half or little less than half of the actual numbers.

Edit: lemme confirm this before I make a mistake

Edited March 6, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

It's not at 32k. That number is incorrect. 

Cgv is the theatre chain that used to have live numbers. Generally their numbers were half or little less than half of the actual numbers.

If the above holds true (and if I am reading this correctly) then Captain Marvel has already exceeded 300k as of 4.30pm

Where did you base the 'exceeded 300K'? Is there a figure in the link indicative of that?

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, UserHN said:

Where did you base the 'exceeded 300K'? Is there a figure in the link indicative of that?

Honestly it would be pretty normal we (I) am expecting over 530k today 😛

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Where did you base the 'exceeded 300K'? Is there a figure in the link indicative of that?

On this link - http://moviestory.cgv.co.kr/fanpage/mainView?movieIdx=81533&iTab=1

On the right hand side there is a number (very tiny) which right now says 171 thousand. Next to it says 624 (which is how many tickets CM sold yesterday). Generally speaking this is the current tickets sold at this theatre and you would take this number and double (or slightly more than double) to get overall numbers. If I am not wrong the numbers update 20 minutes past the hour every hour. 

 

I edited my earlier post as I wanted to be a bit cautious. I was a bit hesitant whether the 171k number is the overall number or half the number of tickets sold. But I think its half the number which would mean close to 350k tickets sold as of 4-4.30ish

[UserHN]

24 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

On this link - http://moviestory.cgv.co.kr/fanpage/mainView?movieIdx=81533&iTab=1

On the right hand side there is a number (very tiny) which right now says 171 thousand. Next to it says 624 (which is how many tickets CM sold yesterday). Generally speaking this is the current tickets sold at this theatre and you would take this number and double (or slightly more than double) to get overall numbers. If I am not wrong the numbers update 20 minutes past the hour every hour. 

 

I edited my earlier post as I wanted to be a bit cautious. I was a bit hesitant whether the 171k number is the overall number or half the number of tickets sold. But I think its half the number which would mean close to 350k tickets sold as of 4-4.30ish

Based on that link, seems like this movie appeals more to girls than boys: 52% girls vs 48% boys.

[ZeeSoh]

4 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Based on that link, seems like this movie appeals more to girls than boys: 52% girls vs 48% boys.

Yup that was expected. It increased about 11k in the last hour. I have no comparisons at this point but maybe heading to 500ish for the day. We'll see how my half assed eye balling works out.

 

Early rating on Naver by critics is at 9.10. Can't be arsed finding out early ratings for other movies but I have for Aquaman and it was at 8.95 so thats good.

 

However, it seems fragile men exists everywhere cuz its audience ratings on Naver is being review bombed and stands at 5.15 when in normal circumstances it should be around the same as the other rating. To give an example of the kind of reviews fragile manbabies are leaving, is this on the main page "Feminism is a mental illness".

[Olive]

expect an OD of around 500k

[UserHN]

39 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yup that was expected. It increased about 11k in the last hour. I have no comparisons at this point but maybe heading to 500ish for the day. We'll see how my half assed eye balling works out.

 

Early rating on Naver by critics is at 9.10. Can't be arsed finding out early ratings for other movies but I have for Aquaman and it was at 8.95 so thats good.

 

However, it seems fragile men exists everywhere cuz its audience ratings on Naver is being review bombed and stands at 5.15 when in normal circumstances it should be around the same as the other rating. To give an example of the kind of reviews fragile manbabies are leaving, is this on the main page "Feminism is a mental illness".

Is the Naver audience rating the counterpart of Maoyan rating in China? We should expect a short legs then. I hope it makes so much in its OW so even with short legs it will still gross decent.

[UserHN]

19 minutes ago, Olive said:

expect an OD of around 500k

BP opened on a holiday right? What is BP's OD?

[Stewart]

39 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yup that was expected. It increased about 11k in the last hour. I have no comparisons at this point but maybe heading to 500ish for the day. We'll see how my half assed eye balling works out.

 

Early rating on Naver by critics is at 9.10. Can't be arsed finding out early ratings for other movies but I have for Aquaman and it was at 8.95 so thats good.

 

However, it seems fragile men exists everywhere cuz its audience ratings on Naver is being review bombed and stands at 5.15 when in normal circumstances it should be around the same as the other rating. To give an example of the kind of reviews fragile manbabies are leaving, is this on the main page "Feminism is a mental illness".

Yes!!! I was hoping you would return for some more live tracking  

 

I saved the posts from when we started with JW2. Still updates at 20 past, though only shows to the nearest 1000. Here's the data I've pulled for today: (I had the hunch to start tracking live data for when Endgame shows)

 

Wednesday, 6 March
Hour	Sales
09:20	113,000
10:20	119,000
11:20	125,000
12:20	132,000
13:20	140,000
14:20	150,000
15:20	161,000
16:20	171,000
17:20	182,000
18:20
19:20
20:20
21:20
22:20
23:20
Actual:

 

As you can see it is solidly doing 11k per hour at the moment, and will continue to do so. Now last time we found 47% was best as the % of the market CGV holds, so extrapolating an average of 11k (since kiddos will be out of school, this is reasonable) for next 6 hours gives 248k. Then using percentage gives:

 

Estimate as of 5:20pm: 525k ±5%

 

Now of course at the moment we have no comps, but once I've gathered the hourly data for a week we shall see. The point to note is that the sales already include presales for the data, which appear to be ~110k, which means roughly half (since this chain is 47%) of the total presales were for OD. 

 

Here's the previous posts for live data:

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

Now my guess would be Thursday will run similar to Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday will be more spread out and Friday will be somewhere in between. It'll be interesting to see what happens though!

[ZeeSoh]

7 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Is the Naver audience rating the counterpart of Maoyan rating in China? We should expect a short legs then. I hope it makes so much in its OW so even with short legs it will still gross decent.

I don't really know. Olive can answer that better perhaps. And it's only being review bombed there. It's ratings on CGV stands at 92% which is actually where Jurassic World 2 was (maybe a bit lower) around its release too. 

 

You cannot take obviously manipulated ratings and predict short legs as thats not actual general audience rating. As I had mentioned earlier, audience rating for all other movies are usually around the critic rating which stands at 9.1. So if trolls were not attacking this movie then the audience ratings would be in the 9 or very high 8 range which would be pretty good. 

 

We'll have to wait and see how it behaves over the weekend to see if legs will be short or not. But generally speaking I think legs will be somewhat on the shorter side than long. MCU movies are getting more and more frontloaded and I reckon people would be rushing out to see this to avoid spoilers and to see how it connects to Endgame. 

[Stewart]

I found this, doesn't have 2018 releases on it though:

 

BP opening day: 624,714

 

So Carol is looking to do 6th best guaranteed, maybe approach 5th best beating Homecoming Opening Day. All without a holiday I believe too!

Edited March 6, 2019 by feasby007

[Legion Again]

Behind CW, AoU, BP, IW, and maybe SMHC is 6th, maybe 5th, no? Still either 2nd or third best not to feature Iron Man+Cap.

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Behind CW, AoU, BP, IW, and maybe SMHC is 6th, maybe 5th, no? Still either 2nd or third best not to feature Iron Man+Cap.

Whoops! I mistyped. Thanks for the correction. Given the sheer popularity of Spider-Man in South Korea, I say beating him would be a fantastic result. And getting that close to BP when it had the holiday too!

 

Also at 6:20pm it's at 192,000. Using historical data for JWFK which (on a Thursday) was at 83k at 6:20pm and finished with 229k that day, this extrapolation gives 529k for CM's OD. Giving me more confidence that my 525k estimate above might just hold up.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Whoops! I mistyped. Thanks for the correction. Given the sheer popularity of Spider-Man in South Korea, I say beating him would be a fantastic result. And getting that close to BP when it had the holiday too!

 

Also at 6:20pm it's at 192,000. Using historical data for JWFK which (on a Thursday) was at 83k at 6:20pm and finished with 229k that day, this extrapolation gives 529k for CM's OD. Giving me more confidence that my 525k estimate above might just hold up.

JW Thursday being 2nd day would have less frontloaded during the morning hours as compared to opening day. I suggest taking 500k for now. 

 

Then again, I am speaking this on basis of purely my experience on India and US tracking recently. Should be same with South Korea.

 

Other fact, that you should note is what is total screen size of Jurassic World and Captain Marvel and how many screens that chain had for both (if available).

Edited March 6, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

JW Thursday being 2nd day would have less frontloaded during the morning hours as compared to opening day. I suggest taking 500k for now. 

 

Then again, I am speaking this on basis of purely my experience on India and US tracking recently. Should be same with South Korea.

Agreed, however I accounted for that and also the fact that JW skews younger than MCU in SK (iirc), so therefore CM's evening shows should account for this. We will have to see, at the moment we have very limited data to go by!

[Stewart]

25 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Other fact, that you should note is what is total screen size of Jurassic World and Captain Marvel and how many screens that chain had for both (if available).

Screens for Captain Marvel are at 2236, with 924 coming from CGV. So 41%, meaning my 525k could be too small. Though I seem to remember that the % of screens does not align with the % of box office. 

 

JW2 on its 2nd day (as we were comparing above) was 720 CGV out of a total of 1740... 41% again 

 

So looks like CGV's % of the market is pretty consistent thus far, just need to work out whether that 47% was good enough or not.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Yes!!! I was hoping you would return for some more live tracking  

 

I saved the posts from when we started with JW2. Still updates at 20 past, though only shows to the nearest 1000. Here's the data I've pulled for today: (I had the hunch to start tracking live data for when Endgame shows)

 

Wednesday, 6 March
Hour	Sales
09:20	113,000
10:20	119,000
11:20	125,000
12:20	132,000
13:20	140,000
14:20	150,000
15:20	161,000
16:20	171,000
17:20	182,000
18:20
19:20
20:20
21:20
22:20
23:20
Actual:

 

As you can see it is solidly doing 11k per hour at the moment, and will continue to do so. Now last time we found 47% was best as the % of the market CGV holds, so extrapolating an average of 11k (since kiddos will be out of school, this is reasonable) for next 6 hours gives 248k. Then using percentage gives:

 

Estimate as of 5:20pm: 525k ±5%

 

Now of course at the moment we have no comps, but once I've gathered the hourly data for a week we shall see. The point to note is that the sales already include presales for the data, which appear to be ~110k, which means roughly half (since this chain is 47%) of the total presales were for OD. 

 

Here's the previous posts for live data:

  Hide contents

 

 

 

 

Now my guess would be Thursday will run similar to Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday will be more spread out and Friday will be somewhere in between. It'll be interesting to see what happens though!

I might not be checking properly, its 202k at 18:20. Last hour added 20k. Comparing it with China, the peak hour start at 18:00 to 21:00. Saying it is the case here as well, we shall be having 20k per hour next 2.5 hours, it will be around 252k and another 25-30k in rest time. 275k could be possible. 

 

Edit: Naah, its 19:20.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder