South Korea Box Office

[Legion Again]

23 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Times 1.9 gives 545k final CGV, about 1.18M admits

Damn, was 544k and gonna be super close to 1.18

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$8,422,983 ($53,542,542)	1,171,772 (7,602,007)	2,367	79.48%
2		Bring Me Home South Korea	Nov 27, 2019	$850,380 ($2,313,831)	114,333 (353,737)	771	8.02%
3		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$665,927 ($15,563,774)	91,637 (2,176,186)	718	6.28%
4		CRAWL U.S.	Nov 27, 2019	$198,491 ($575,043)	26,586 (85,902)	551	1.87%
5		Love at Second Sight Belgium,France	Nov 27, 2019	$98,467 ($275,282)	13,412 (41,452)	141	0.92%

CGV PS for tomorrow are also very close to expected at 237k. Gonna bump the PSm forecast to 1.99, final CGV 470k, day of 1M or so for a 2.6M weekend.

Edited November 30, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[PKMLover]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Damn, was 544k and gonna be super close to 1.18

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$8,422,983 ($53,542,542)	1,171,772 (7,602,007)	2,367	79.48%
2		Bring Me Home South Korea	Nov 27, 2019	$850,380 ($2,313,831)	114,333 (353,737)	771	8.02%
3		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$665,927 ($15,563,774)	91,637 (2,176,186)	718	6.28%
4		CRAWL U.S.	Nov 27, 2019	$198,491 ($575,043)	26,586 (85,902)	551	1.87%
5		Love at Second Sight Belgium,France	Nov 27, 2019	$98,467 ($275,282)	13,412 (41,452)	141	0.92%

CGV PS for tomorrow are also very close to expected at 237k. Gonna bump the PSm forecast to 1.99, day of 1M or so for a 2.6M weekend.

Around -30% weekend? 

[pepsa]

Great second weekend

[Legion Again]

32 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Great second weekend

Yup, looks like 2nd biggest after Roaring Currents 2.823M. Would be cool to get top 2nd Sun, but that takes 1.033 and it looks tough.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Yup, looks like 2nd biggest after Roaring Currents 2.823M. Would be cool to get top 2nd Sun, but that takes 1.033 and it looks tough.

Yep it will need crazy walk ups (compared to normal) to get there. I am curious about next weekend if it holds 40% or better 12m is  100% happening (it would be at around 10.85m with a 1.5m 3day). And that would open up crossing avatar. That said I am expecting a drop more around 45%

 

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Yep it will need crazy walk ups (compared to normal) to get there. I am curious about next weekend if it holds 40% or better 12m is  100% happening (it would be at around 10.85m with a 1.5m 3day). And that would open up crossing avatar. That said I am expecting a drop more around 45%

 

12M is toast. After today we’ve got an 8.6M cume from a 4.2M (Mon-Sun week) — BUT, the Wed is inflated about 300k by Culture day, so call it a virtual 3.9M week for sake of forward projection. Then here’s how things go with various average week-to-week drops:

cume week % drop Weekly multi  Final admits
8.6    3.9    60%    1.67    11.200
8.6    3.9    55%    1.82    11.791
8.6    3.9    50%    2.00    12.500
8.6    3.9    45%    2.22    13.367
8.6    3.9    40%    2.50    14.450
8.6    3.9    38%    2.67    15.100
8.6    3.9    35%    2.86    15.843
8.6    3.9    33%    3.00    16.400
 

So even like 52% drops would get it done. 50% and Aladdin is a nail biter. I think 40-45ish should be realistic, which is the zone where Avatar and Endgame get nervous.   
 

I’ll be keeping this updated daily at the far right on the sheet.

Edited November 30, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[pepsa]

5 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

12M is toast. After today we’ve got an 8.6M cume from a 4.2M (Mon-Sun week) — BUT, the Wed is inflated about 300k by Culture day, so call it a virtual 3.9M week for sake of forward projection. Then here’s how things go with various average week-to-week drops:

cume week % drop Weekly multi  Final admits
8.6    3.9    60%    1.67    11.200
8.6    3.9    55%    1.82    11.791
8.6    3.9    50%    2.00    12.500
8.6    3.9    45%    2.22    13.367
8.6    3.9    40%    2.50    14.450
8.6    3.9    38%    2.67    15.100
8.6    3.9    35%    2.86    15.843
8.6    3.9    33%    3.00    16.400
 

So even like 52% drops would get it done. 50% and Aladdin is a nail biter. I think 40-45ish should be realistic, which is the zone where Avatar and Endgame get nervous.   
 

I’ll be keeping this updated daily at the far right on the sheet.

The biggest problem with SK is that once it's start dropping it could drop very hard and not just 50% like many other markets later on. 2-3 weeks could totaly kill a movie;

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, pepsa said:

The biggest problem with SK is that once it's start dropping it could drop very hard and not just 50% like many other markets later on. 2-3 weeks could totaly kill a movie;

Yeah, there is a real concern about hitting demand satiation and then plummeting. That’s why I’m not totally confident in, say, 13. But dropping 45% next week and 60% after still gets past 12, so it seems pretty safe.

[PKMLover]

9 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Yeah, there is a real concern about hitting demand satiation and then plummeting. That’s why I’m not totally confident in, say, 13. But dropping 45% next week and 60% after still gets past 12, so it seems pretty safe.

Is there something we can based on to know if WOM is good there? 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Is there something we can based on to know if WOM is good there? 

WOM is obviously good from the egg and days 4-10. It’s difficult to know when/if it might reach a point where the vast majority of people who were receptive to the idea of seeing it have done so, at which point it could start dropping hard. That’s how Aladdin’s run ended, and I believe also BoRhap, F1, and several other really leggy movies in the market.

[UserHN]

45 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

WOM is obviously good from the egg and days 4-10. It’s difficult to know when/if it might reach a point where the vast majority of people who were receptive to the idea of seeing it have done so, at which point it could start dropping hard. That’s how Aladdin’s run ended, and I believe also BoRhap, F1, and several other really leggy movies in the market.

We also shouldnt forget that Into the Unknown and Show Yourself are currently ranking high in the digital music charts. Both are breaking out and it could only help the movie's legs.

[Damien]

There are  6 Frozen 2 songs that are charting on Melon right now (including taeyeon's version) and both show yourself and Into the unknown are top 10. Some will drop out of top 100 till evening but still great performance.

[danhtruong5]

5 minutes ago, Damien said:

There are  6 Frozen 2 songs that are charting on Melon right now (including taeyeon's version) and both show yourself and Into the unknown are top 10. Some will drop out of top 100 till evening but still great performance.

2 songs in top 10 melon. Wow

[Legion Again]

Still looking like it’ll be between 1M and the 2nd Sun record. This movie has been almost creepily predictable so far. 
 

I’m feeling quite optimistic about Monday’s drop given the KOBIS patterns, but in 10 hours we’ll have a much better idea.

[Jamiem]

4 hours ago, Damien said:

There are  6 Frozen 2 songs that are charting on Melon right now (including taeyeon's version) and both show yourself and Into the unknown are top 10. Some will drop out of top 100 till evening but still great performance.

This is a great sign as I believe music is important for films like this and this is a great early sign of the songs catching on with the public, Bohemian Rhapsody and Aladdin broke it in a large part due to their music in my opinion. 

 

Speechless was huge for propelling Aladdin and was covered by many singers including Kim Jong Kook recently on one the country’s most popular variety shows Running Man. Let’s hope that either Show Yourself or Into the Unknown has an influence on Frozen II that is even half as pronounced as Speechless. 

[danhtruong5]

@Arendelle Legion any update for sunday?

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, danhtruong5 said:

@Arendelle Legion any update for sunday?

Evening was ever so slightly weaker than I thought, probably O/U 990k depending on CGV ratio. Should still be 2nd largest 2nd Sun ever.   Initial official estimates available in 40 minutes anyway.

[danhtruong5]

Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

Evening was ever so slightly weaker than I thought, probably O/U 990k depending on CGV ratio. Should still be 2nd largest 2nd Sun ever.   Initial official estimates available in 40 minutes anyway.

Anything bad sign for legs appeared yet???

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, danhtruong5 said:

Anything bad sign for legs appeared yet???

Nope, on the contrary.  Here’s today:  

1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$7,081,307 ($60,715,076)	979,419 (8,583,630)	2,351	78.79%
2		Bring Me Home South Korea	Nov 27, 2019	$776,717 ($3,114,347)	104,287 (461,107)	769	8.64%
3		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$593,106 ($16,175,846)	80,425 (2,259,051)	715	6.59%
4		CRAWL U.S.	Nov 27, 2019	$168,194 ($752,861)	22,425 (109,574)	557	1.87%
5		Love at Second Sight Belgium,France	Nov 27, 2019	$91,902 ($369,122)	12,510 (54,212)	141	1.02%

So a roughly 2.59M 2nd weekend, -32.4%.     
 

As for Monday, the CGV PS are 31k.   
 

Conservatively, PSm may be flat from last Mon or even drop a little, giving as low as 200k (-42% weekly).  
 

Optimistically it could have the same PSm bump from a Sunday as last Mon did, giving 245k (-31% weekly).   
 

I will actually forecast a modest PSm growth, 113k final CGV, 225k admits for -36% weekly.

[titanic2187]

Korean love to musical reached new height! they give almost three 10m admission grosser to musicals in the span 12 months!  

 

This make me even more wonder how BATB didn't really click here, to some extent TLK, too