catlover Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'm sure that won't happen. Why? Demographics! Japan loses inhabitants every year, more and more, and the number of births collapse while the growth of retired people explodes. It's not only dangerous zconomically, that also means the potential audience is decreasing year after year. And cinemas could be hit by the next VAT increases. Yeah, I know that. But who knows, maybe there will be a movie that resonates to the Japanese audience so much that it will be as big as Spirited Away. Also, maybe Japan's demographics and economic situation will change in the future. You never know. There's always a possibility of that, no matter how small. So I can't really say it will never happen, because I don't know about the future. And that's why I said what I said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah, I know that. But who knows, maybe there will be a movie that resonates to the Japanese audience so much that it will be as big as Spirited Away. Also, maybe Japan's demographics and economic situation will change in the future. You never know. There's always a possibility of that, no matter how small. So I can't really say it will never happen, because I don't know about the future. And that's why I said what I said. I sometimes think people just don't understand how big Spirited Away was. The biggest film since then was Howl's and that was still 10b yen off. In other words, it was still off by TS3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 (edited) I sometimes think people just don't understand how big Spirited Away was. The biggest film since then was Howl's and that was still 10b yen off. In other words, it was still off by TS3. THIS. I think it's easier (bigger possibility) to break Avatar WW record than Spirited Away's record in Japan. Btw, I have mixed feelings about Frozen beating TS3 WW. TS3 is one of my all time favorite movies (and it's actually close to #1 on my all time favorite list). At the same time I LOVE Frozen so much and it deserves every penny it's getting, but I still think TS3 deserves more than what it got. Edited February 22, 2014 by catlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan9 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Records can't be kept forever, and whilst I love both Frozen and TS3, at least it's a great original movie with a great story that'll be taking over the crown and not Ice Age 5... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Records can't be kept forever, and whilst I love both Frozen and TS3, at least it's a great original movie with a great story that'll be taking over the crown and not Ice Age 5... Good point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
23IsEverywhere Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Answer to mfantin65's post in the China thread: Locks China 45M SK 75M Japan 40M DOM 395M Global 1.06B Reasonable China 50M SK 80M Japan 60M DOM 401M Global 1.1B Optimistic scenario China 60M SK 90M Japan 100M DOM 410M Global 1.17B Frozen needs to reach the insane level of MU, MI, Nemo and TS3 in Japan to even struggle to your 'lock'...enough said Locks China 47.5M SK 75M Japan 70M DOM 400M Global 1.1B Reasonable China 55M SK 85M Japan 110M DOM 403M Global 1.15B Optimistic scenario China 65M SK 90M Japan 180M DOM 410M Global 1.2B I could see it doing really well in Japan, and I don't think Disney will take it out of theaters until it clears 400M DOM. Frozen recovered nicely on Saturday in China, and should clear 40M this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfantin65 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 LocksChina 47.5MSK 75MJapan 70MDOM 400MGlobal 1.1B ReasonableChina 55MSK 85MJapan 110MDOM 403MGlobal 1.15B Optimistic scenarioChina 65MSK 90MJapan 180MDOM 410MGlobal 1.2BI could see it doing really well in Japan, and I don't think Disney will take it out of theaters until it clears 400M DOM. Frozen recovered nicely on Saturday in China, and should clear 40M this weekend.Your optimistic numbers total 152.5m more. So you're saying 1.252 then? I love a long shot. IM3 here we come! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 China will end at $50-$55m SK will end at $75-80m Japan I'm hoping for MU numbers, $90-$100m that will get it over TS3 but it won't beat IM3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainJackSparrow Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Who could have guessed this would gross over a billion? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Calling 180M for Japan "optimistic" feels like an understatement. It's got an Olaf's chance in summer. ...oh wait... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Who could have guessed this would gross over a billion? Frozen should be crossing a billion on Oscar weekend! I can't wait! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murgatroyd Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 (edited) To put things in perspective for Japan: In all of history, 25 movies have made over $100M there. (Unadjusted gross in yen, converted at today's exchange rate). 9 have made over $150M. 2 have made over $200M. One of those is Titanic, at $256M. The other is Spirited Away, at $297M. Unless you're predicting that it will do even more spectacularly well in Japan than anywhere else in the world, 100-150M should be the top of your range. Edited February 23, 2014 by Murgatroyd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxx93 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Actually according to BOM: Titanic made $201.4M and Spirited Away made $229.6M in Japan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 (edited) Actually according to BOM: Titanic made $201.4M and Spirited Away made $229.6M in Japan. Murgatroyd said "today's exchange rate". Edited February 23, 2014 by catlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 BOM is not a good source when it comes to international box office for individual country. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfantin65 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Calling 180M for Japan "optimistic" feels like an understatement. It's got an Olaf's chance in summer. ...oh wait... Olaf has a great chance in summer... in anarctica anyway;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 SK sunday box office numbers for frozen daily admission: 153,923 total admission: 9.61m Total gross: $72m Basically 300k admission for this weekend. It's lost a lot of steam but as long as it's still running by next weekend 10m admission is a lock. Frozen atm is 11th in the all time SK box office admissions ranking, an incredible performance considering it isn't a local film and it's an animation(traditionally not very popular in SK). 10m is seen as a significant figure over here only 10 films have ever managed it so frozen will be joining a very exclusive club On a side note, I really can't believe pompei is #1 in SK box office...that film literally blows 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 @BoxOffice: FROZEN: $596.3M Overseas Total / $980.3M Global Total #Frozen 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
portgas Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 No wonder the run was extended for two weeks in China. HK's theatres are packed. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wait...What?? They extended it for 2 weeks in China???? That's wonderful! 真让人难以置信 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
