Omni Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 An opening weekend higher than MU's would be CRAZY. Monsters University was a Pixar film and a prequel to one of the 3 most attended foreign animated films of all time. I'm expecting an OW around Doraemon's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 An opening weekend higher than MU's would be CRAZY. Monsters University was a Pixar film and a prequel to one of the 3 most attended foreign animated films of all time. I'm expecting an OW around Doraemon's. HATER. I think it can beat howl's moving castle OW admissions. just kidding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Omni is always pessimistic about Frozen,and there is no rational reasons to that given the movie went well beyond everybody's expectations.So maybe he's a hater.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 About its japanese gross I expect sthg between 70-100m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 To be fair to omni I think he's a pretty strong frozen fan. He just bases his predictions within the realms of reason. Frozen destroys reason 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 If you say so,it's fine then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 (edited) Omni is always pessimistic about Frozen,and there is no rational reasons to that given the movie went well beyond everybody's expectations.So maybe he's a hater.. Omni maybe a pessimist, or just being realistic, but definitely not a hater. In fact, I agree with his OW prediction. Heck I even think Frozen will open lower than Doraemon. Not because I'm pessimistic, but because that's reasonable. Just like it's reasonable to expect great legs from Frozen, based on the market and its performance in other countries. It's true though, Frozen destroys reasons, mainly with WOM after people see the movie. That's why I think reasons still apply on its OW. But that's just me. Edited March 12, 2014 by catlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Myself, I prefer to be conservative and be pleasantly surprised when something exceeds expectations. For China I kept using 30m as my expectation when figuring out WW numbers, and several people were saying even that was too high, and in the end it will come in just under 50m. I think I had a measly 20-25M for South Korea, in line with the highest predictions out there and was way short. Now we have Japan. I'm going to go higher for this and say 70m, and hopefully be surprised again with 100+. Japan is the last market, why don't we all put an estimate down for the record so we can look back on them and shake our heads in disbelief. Japan Prediction: 70m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuck0 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 My prediction is $90M :)So basically MU territory... might be a little high, but oh well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Heh $100m for me don't make me a liar Japan!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABAS Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 South Korea ($76.3M), the United Kingdom ($63.8M), Germany ($47.9M), China ($46.1M), France ($42.6M), Russia ($33.3M), and Australia ($30.8M). Hope that China number will pass Germany number, and China will be #4 OS market for Frozen, very good performance. According to the official data released by China's national movie agency, the box office of Frozen ending last Sunday is 293.5m RMB. This number has passed Germant number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Sweden has been updated to include the March 7-9 weekend. Frozen finally gave up the #1 spot in its 6th weekend dropping to #3 with $261,997 for a total of $8,718,697 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Turkey is all but done now, finishing #14 in it's 7th weekend (Feb. 28-March 2) with $25,706 and an impressive total of $5,421,229 for such a tiny market. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonicjr Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 LOL Hater Omni even said he had dreams of Frozen's BO run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Omni is always pessimistic about Frozen,and there is no rational reasons to that given the movie went well beyond everybody's expectations. The problem with Japan is that it's Frozen's last country, and we have to separate early expectations from late expecations. Rational and reasonable expectations just three months ago put it around 40/50M I think. Then Frozen's legs exploded and South Korea gave us an insane run (more than 10M admissions and 2nd highest grossing imported movie ever). And people went nuts, with predictions above 100M or even above Toy Story 3 and Wind Rises. Even Avatar's and Spirited Away's #'s were suggested (and remember that Avatar made more than 150M only because of a very favorable exchange rate and an insanely high 3D ratio - would have been much closer to 100M otherwise). My prediction fluctuates around 70M, which is more than the grosses of Tangled and WIR combined, and with a worse exchange rate. Talk about pessimism. Omni maybe a pessimist, or just being realistic, but definitely not a hater. In fact, I agree with his OW prediction. Heck I even think Frozen will open lower than Doraemon. Not because I'm pessimistic, but because that's reasonable. Just like it's reasonable to expect great legs from Frozen, based on the market and its performance in other countries. It's true though, Frozen destroys reasons, mainly with WOM after people see the movie. That's why I think reasons still apply on its OW. But that's just me. Exactly. Now, sometimes Frozen has crushed our reasonable guesses, while other times it just met them or went a little below. Take Sweden for example: reasonable predictions put it around 10M and that's where it's going to finish. The 15/20M boutades were just emotional throws. Just like Avatar numbers in South Korea or the domestic gross surpassing Catching Fire's. I just don't like following the excitement and shooting insane numbers and broken records all around just because a film is overperforming. A gross around 7 billion yens in Japan is already an overperformance for an original animated film not created by Miyazaki & Co. It can fall below that, or of course go higher. Also, a reminder: on KJ Corpse, who has been intensively following the japanese box office for many years and has just nailed the opening weekend of Doraemon, predicted 40/50M for Frozen just a month ago or so. So everyone should keep in mind that, while Frozen has a 100+ potential if everything works, it also isn't even locked for 50M and it has many reasons to fall under MU. LOL Hater Omni even said he had dreams of Frozen's BO run. Haha, so you remember it. I like that people see as a hater someone who's just trying to keep his feet on the ground. No matter if he saw Frozen 3 times, listened to Let it Go about 3000 times, bought the soundtrack, etc etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
23IsEverywhere Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'll go with 100M I think it has a chance of breaking out even more. As for the OW I'd say 8.5M. I have much more faith in my total prediction than my OW one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABAS Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'll go with 100M I think it has a chance of breaking out even more. As for the OW I'd say 8.5M. I have much more faith in my total prediction than my OW one. Just one simple question. Since Frozen screens on Friday, the box oofice of OW will include Friday or merely Weekend performance (3.15-16) ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfantin65 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'm sticking w 110. No fun being cautious here. Caution is good when having sex in tijuana though;)I think it explodes and matchs TS3 minus yen adjustment.Omni, you're not a hater but you are overly conservative. Even when it was apparent than china would come in at 30m by the second weekend, you still said no more than 35m total. Being way under is just as poor a predictor as shooting the moon.At least you offered to eat your hat at 50m! Close call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gokai Red Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 (edited) Assuming the rest of the world stops at about 1.020B, I would be more than happy if we do 45M in Japan and pass TS3 WW. But, what would make me REALLY happy is if it makes the 105M needed to claim #6 all time. For my prediction though, I'll be a little conservation and go with 80M in Japan, for a nice round total of 1.1B WW. Edited March 13, 2014 by Gokai Red Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Just one simple question. Since Frozen screens on Friday, the box oofice of OW will include Friday or merely Weekend performance (3.15-16) ? I forgot it opens on Friday! The OW in official reports from Japan will only include Sat & Sun, so it's gonna be deflated because of that Friday opening. Although reports from screendaily etc. sometimes include Friday gross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I forgot it opens on Friday! The OW in official reports from Japan will only include Sat & Sun, so it's gonna be deflated because of that Friday opening. Although reports from screendaily etc. sometimes include Friday gross. Is a Friday opening not the norm there? Does that mean most or all those other openings from before were two-day totals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
