TDKR Weekend: $160.89M - #3 ALL TIME HIGHEST OW

[baumer]

New numbers from Deadline are in..."Friday $76.1M, Saturday $45.2M, Est Sunday $39.8M, Weekend $161.1M"Bad weekend if true.

To be fair, the Saturday number is excellent as it stayed flat minus the midnights and they are giving it a 14% drop for Sunday which is also fantastic.

[CloneWars]

B if this has a 60% drops we are now talking "Spider-man 3" terrority, Do you really think it's going to fall that hard?

I'm not Baumer, but I think it can fall that hard not because of WOM but association with James Holmes.

[baumer]

B if this has a 60% drops we are now talking "Spider-man 3" terrority, Do you really think it's going to fall that hard?

Yes I do. Besides TA and TDK, can you find me another massive opener that didn't fall close to 60% the second weekend? I haven't looked to be honest, but even 55%. TA and TDK are exceptions, not the rule.

[CloneWars]

To be fair, the Saturday number is excellent as it stayed flat minus the midnights and they are giving it a 14% drop for Sunday which is also fantastic.

However, Sunday is a complete guess at this point. They are predicting that it will drop that low because the effects of the shooting will start to wear off, but I'm not so sure.

[redfirebird2008]

Personally I'm still on board for a 60-62% drop second weekend. The wOM for this is good, but not TDKR like. And even the good WOM still cannot overcome the fact that this may be a great movie, but it is dark and depressing and bleak. That, to me, does not seem like something that people will want to rush back to see again. Maybe I'm wrong, but at this point, I think this is logical.

This was my point as soon as the news broke. This film is not the lighthearted escapism that helped SM1 after 9/11. It's a bad mixture for this film.

[baumer]

B if this has a 60% drops we are now talking "Spider-man 3" terrority, Do you really think it's going to fall that hard? I agree it's showing signs of Frontloadedness but what if TDKR is going to be a weekend movie like TA?

The box office has changed dramatically since Spiderman 3. That 63% drop in 2007 is like a 70-75% drop today. That drop was unprecedented for a blockbuster. Now 60% second weekend drops are more common due to midnights. So not only do I think it's possible to drop 60%, I think it is almost locked to do so.

[JCS]

To be fair, the Saturday number is excellent as it stayed flat minus the midnights and they are giving it a 14% drop for Sunday which is also fantastic.

Perhaps, but a $3M OW increase for TDKR is awful when TDK was huge and everyone liked it and the hype for this was huge.The shooting has decimated the OW thanks to the sensationalist USA media but hopefully the OS markets will make up for it.

[baumer]

This was my point as soon as the news broke. This film is not the lighthearted escapism that helped SM1 after 9/11. It's a bad mixture for this film.

Even TDK, as dark as it was, was much more fun, lively, humourous and exciting. It wasn't dark and depressing like this one. The joker obviously had EVERYTHING to do with that. He was a maniac but he had fun doing it, and subsequently the audience had fun with him. There isn't much fun in this one. Bane's about as much fun as the plague.

[redfirebird2008]

Keep in mind SM3 had awful weekday numbers.

[Olive]

When Monday numbers come out, we will know what kind of drop it will be.Too early to tell.

[cratos]

Last time I thought about it I had the idea "being killed" is worse than *being wounded". But, whatsoever...

It is a fact that it's the largest mass shooting in US history. You can't argue with that. When you have the media repeating this 24/7 that's what will resonate. LARGEST MASS SHOOTING. How does that come across?

[Mayhem2x3]

If Saturday stays flat, doesn't that suggest a limit to how much the shooting affected the film's gross? Sat was supposed to be flat with Friday.

[redfirebird2008]

Baumer, I thought Bane was awesome.

[Punishment]

Business was gargantuan Friday but definitely off Saturday and may be off Sunday, too. I was told Friday night there were a lot of admissions still to count. On Saturday morning my sources said The Dark Knight Rises brought in $77.2 million Friday (give or take one million) from 4,404 domestic theaters. Now that Friday number has been adjusted to $76.1M as either more theaters reported a lesser number, or refunds hit the books. Either way, when looking at it closely this morning, it went down a little. That is still the 3rd all-time opening day and the best 2D single day. There was indeed a huge -41% drop Saturday mostly because of those $30.6M in midnight shows (including $2.2M IMAX grosses) which expanded Friday’s tally. Previous installment The Dark Knight dropped -29% its Saturday. I can now tell you that The Dark Knight Rises made $46.2M Saturday and is projected at $39.3M Sunday (-12%). My sources now say the 3-day weekend cume looks around $161.1M with the caveat that the Colorado tragedy may have an impossible-to-predict effect until Monday actuals. This could still be the largest grossing 2D North American opening weekend ever, past 2008′s The Dark Knight at $158M. However, despite the “like nothing ever happened” box office momentum which Warner Bros saw Friday morning, it is clear that Dark Knight Rises numbers won’t be record-breaking overall. Yes, because of pre-sales, midnights shattered the $18.4M generated by Marvel’s The Avengers earlier this summer. But The Dark Knight Rises didn’t beat Avengers‘ $80.5M Friday and won’t come near Avengers‘ all-time $207.4M collected from 2D, Digital 3D, RealD, and IMAX 3D.Here’s the Top Ten list based on weekend estimates:1. The Dark Knight Rises (Legendary/Warner Bros) NEW [4,404 Theaters]Friday $76.1M, Saturday $45.2M, Est Sunday $39.8M, Weekend $161.1M2. Ice Age 4 (Blue Sky/Fox) Week 2 [3,886 Theaters]Friday $6.6M, Saturday $7.5M, Weekend $20.2M (-57%), Cume $88.7M3. The Amazing Spider-Man (Columbia/Sony) Week 3 [3,753 Theaters]Friday $3.3M, Saturday $4.1M, Weekend $10.7M, Cume $228.5MREST OF NUMBERS STILL BEING ADJUSTED…4. Ted (MRC/Universal) Week 4 [3,214 Theaters]Friday $3.1M, Saturday $4.0M, Weekend $10.3M, Cume $180.7M5. Brave (Pixar/Disney) Week 5 [2,899 Theaters]Friday $1.9M, Saturday $2.3M, Weekend $5.7M, Cume $209.3M6. Magic Mike (Warner Bros) Week 4 [2,606 Theaters]Friday $1.6M, Saturday, Weekend $4.3M, Cume $102.1M7. Savages (Universal) Week 3 [2,336 Theaters]Friday $986K, Saturday, Weekend $3.3M, Cume $40.0M8. Madea’s Witness Protection (TPerry/Lionsgate) Week 4 [1,540 Theaters]Friday $744K, Saturday, Weekend $2.2M, Cume $60.3M9. Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features) Week 9 [895 Theaters]Friday $551K, Saturday, Weekend $1.9M, Cume $36.2M10. Madagascar 3 (DreamWorks Anim/Par) Week 7 [1,261 Theaters]Friday $447K, Saturday, Weekend $1.5M, Cume $207.8M

Edited July 22, 2012 by Baumer Rises

[AniNate]

Baumer, I thought Bane was awesome.

Ditto. He was even more fun to watch for me because he had interesting motivations for his actions, and Tom Hardy's delivery was scenery-chewing goodness.

[Gopher]

Friday and Saturday went down. and 11.9% Sunday drop is a far too generous projection. Weekend probably won't top TDK unadjusted.

[Orestes]

Ditto. He was even more fun to watch for me because he had interesting motivations for his actions, and Tom Hardy's delivery was scenery-chewing goodness.

Out of all the movies so far, I would say Bane has been the 3rd best villain, behind Ledger's and Nicholson's Jokers.

[doctoru2]

I'd like someone to answer my question, if you please.

Do you think this WILL drop less than 45% next weekend, due to the shooting and the incredible WOM?

The fact that TDKR "only" made $160M this weekend - give or take a few million - has some thinking this movie flopped. The second highest opening ever is an accomplishment (and it received no 3D boost).

So with that type of huge opening, I think enough people have seen it for WOM to spread. And I'm still not sure on how great the WOM is for this film. TA seemed to have phenomenal WOM - everyone was talking about it. Yet that film still dropped slightly 50% - despite being released in May where weekdays are softer.

With the summer holidays, the weekdays will be stronger for TDKR, meaning less demand for the weekend. The drop may be slightly softer due to the horrific shootings (meaning a larger second weekend audience than normal), but not much. I feel it will still be over 50% or higher due to some mixed WOM, continued fear of the shootings, and weekday viewings.

Edited July 22, 2012 by doctoru2

[Dementeleus]

Bane was incredibly awesome. Heath's Joker is unique and chilling and worthy of every distinction, but I thought Bane -- while a completely different sort of villain -- was unforgettable in his own way.

[Gopher]

Holy hell, Spider-Man is actually down 70%.