Monday (7/23/12) Numbers: The Dark Knight Rises - 19.5M

[Michael Yun Xia]

Again, it remains your prediction, not a fact. Many reports suggested 90m OD, which could have been enough for 200m. Xiayun, who's not a bad predictor said 204m after its midnights. It really annoys me when people are claiming statement over things that we don't know. Did you see me saying that 200m would have happened. No. I simply say that it remains unknown.

A minor correction: my weekend predictions are already done on Thursday night, so the $204m number was before the midnight figure was known, although I did think $60m w/o midnight was still possible for Friday before realizing the impact the shooting had. Edited July 25, 2012 by xiayun

[ACCA]

Wow, just wow is all I have to say.Some of you people are arguing about "correct" predictions in a situation and time like this, and bringing up one of the troll of all trolls, who has trolled all across the internet? You people should be ashamed of yourselves. It is indisputable that this tragedy is affecting TDKR's box office run. There really isn't much else to say than that. Whatever TDKR finishes with domestically is not of great importance, due to the tragedy. Overseas numbers will end up being great, as it seems it's performing beyond expectations there. It's also pointless to try and compare the effect of the tragedy for other films and TDKR. The media has sensationalized this as the "TDKR shooting" and due to a combination of fear and panic in the US, the media continues to report on several other instances at TDKR shootings where cops have been called and several people have been arrested in fights, as well as drunken disturbances. If there is any film that people are going to be afraid to watch in the US right now, it is TDKR.It is an incredible shame this tragedy occured, an incredible shame this madman has affected so much. First and foremost the lives of the victims and families, the city of Aurora, Colorado. Also, it has affected the reputation of TDKR as well as tainted the perception of many dark films. It has affected everyone who was involved with making TDKR. It has also affected moviegoers in the US, as well as theaters themselves and finally film studios and Hollywood itself.Myself personally, I do not live in fear. I will continue to go to the movies, as for me the theater is a peaceful, calm place and going to the movies is something I love to do. The fact is though it has affected quite a number of people in the US. For how long is anyone's guess. Even though other moviegoers including myself are not living in fear, this tragedy has hit close to home for everyone who are fans of cinema. Terrible tragedies occur all over the world all the time yes, but for film fans this hits close to home, and some are simply more fearful than others.It is a good move for WB to be making that donation to the city, and also how Bale has visited the victims personally. These are all good gestures, even though WB is not responsible for this in any way.All things considered, TDKR is a great film and great films deserve to be supported by moviegoers in the cinema. I feel that the less US moviegoers are fearful, and the more they are hopeful, the better. Personally, people should not give in to the fear and panic that this madman caused, but everyone reacts and is affected differently and I totally understand that.I have somewhat lost interest in following the box office for the time being, and I feel that the box office will have a somber feeling to it for a while. I hope TDKR gets the domestic success it deserves, as it has great WOM, and other good films this year get the success they deserve.

Edited July 25, 2012 by ACCA

[Eldenfirefly]

If this keeps on underperforming, regardless of what happens, the knives will come out soon. Sure, there was a national tragedy, and it will be associated with the movie unfairly. The way I see it. TDKR is getting off light. The detractors are giving respect in light of the tradgedy, and so, they have reined in their emotions. If the shooting had never happened, and say TDKR's BO was 10% or 15% higher, then there would have been a heck of a meltdown on these boards by now (in a fun way). I so much wish that would have happened instead.Now we can't even discuss the movie's BO without people saying its all irrelevant because it would have made over 600 million if the shooting never happened, or that we shouldn't even be discussing BO in light of the events... This is a BO forum, so why shouldn't we discuss its BO? I am with Baumer on this one. TDK was a perfect storm, made perfect by Ledger's death. TA was a perfect storm as well. TDKR ... is performing like a typical front loaded block buster so far and that's about it.

[Hatebox]

The detractors are giving respect in light of the tradgedy, and so, they have reined in their emotions. If the shooting had never happened, and say TDKR's BO was 10% or 15% higher....

If, if, if...

I had it at 185m OW just before it opened and still feel fine with that prediction. If its legs are bad for the rest of its run we can talk about that, but as far I'm concerned the OW was a write-off. I don't even live in the US and even I can see what a huge deal it was there. A huge deal it still is.

Edited July 25, 2012 by Hatebox

[darthdevidem01]

Hope Rth gives us an update soon!No pressure Rth lol

[Sims]

Hope Rth gives us an update soon!No pressure Rth lol

He did in the Predict the Week thread, 17.8-18.3 Tues

[ACCA]

If this keeps on underperforming, regardless of what happens, the knives will come out soon. Sure, there was a national tragedy, and it will be associated with the movie unfairly. The way I see it. TDKR is getting off light. The detractors are giving respect in light of the tradgedy, and so, they have reined in their emotions. If the shooting had never happened, and say TDKR's BO was 10% or 15% higher, then there would have been a heck of a meltdown on these boards by now (in a fun way). I so much wish that would have happened instead.Now we can't even discuss the movie's BO without people saying its all irrelevant because it would have made over 600 million if the shooting never happened, or that we shouldn't even be discussing BO in light of the events... This is a BO forum, so why shouldn't we discuss its BO? I am with Baumer on this one. TDK was a perfect storm, made perfect by Ledger's death. TA was a perfect storm as well. TDKR ... is performing like a typical front loaded block buster so far and that's about it.

Stop acting like you know what's going on in the US, or how much fear and panic a lot of US moviegoers still have. The media in the US continues intensely negative coverage of the film and associating it with the tragedy. TDKR is getting off light? Not even close. You also need to stop pretending that you know how TDKR will perform the rest of it's run. Performing like a frontloaded blockbuster is incorrect. Such silly statements are not needed.TDKR beat TDK's OW, despite this tragedy. The "Ledger passing away added to a perfect storm for TDK" argument has been disproven. At most, Ledger's passing contributed to the hype for TDK's OW, but beyond that it had almost no effect. The legs TDK had may have been partly due to Ledger's performance in the film, but not due to his passing.As Hatebox said, this is still a huge deal in the US, so it is obviously having an effect on the film's domestic run.Discussing BO is fine, but as I said, it is indisputable that the the tragedy has affected the film's domestic run. This simply cannot be argued. That is why I personally will not be following TDKR's domestic run too closely because we will never know what the film could have or would have done without the tragedy happening. Edited July 25, 2012 by ACCA

[darthdevidem01]

He did in the Predict the Week thread, 17.8-18.3 Tues

Oh bummer, I thought it would go a bit up.

[Sims]

Oh bummer, I thought it would go a bit up.

I think it's a pretty decent number.

[hasanahmad]

Tuesday looks like TDKR 17.8-18.3, IA4 3.9, TASM 2.1, TED 1.7, Brave 1.3

This is a great number, drop of just 5-7% is better than TDK which dropped 15 percent, Deathly Hallows 2 which dropped 16 percent, nearly on par with inception (which dropped 5%) which had great legs,

[StarSaber]

Only down 5-8%, pretty good...

[lab276]

Just wait for the huge Wednesday drop...

[Eastwood47]

I think some good will might come to this picture since Christian Bale went to visit the victims. I thought that was a classy thing to do. I went to see it for a second time last night and our theater was 3/4 full for a 5 o'clock showing. When we got out a considerable line had formed for the 7:45 viewing. I was surprised to see that on a Tuesday. But reading the article about Bale visiting the victims was very heartening. For me that took the stigma off Batman and placed him more on the side of the victims. Perhaps those feeling negative feelings towards Dark Knight Rises will recede. Here's the article...http://www.denverpost.com/theatershooting/ci_21147699/christian-bale-town-visiting-victims-shooting

Edited July 25, 2012 by Eastwood47

[baumer]

He did in the Predict the Week thread, 17.8-18.3 Tues

So about an 8% drop....pretty much what most realistic people expected.

[baumer]

I think some good will might come to this picture since Christian Bale went to visit the victims. I thought that was a classy thing to do. I went to see it for a second time last night and our theater was 3/4 full for a 5 o'clock showing. When we got out a considerable line had formed for the 7:45 viewing. I was surprised to see that on a Tuesday. But reading the article about Bale visiting the victims was very heartening. For me that took the stigma off Batman and placed him more on the side of the victims. Perhaps those feeling negative feelings towards Dark Knight Rises will recede. Here's the article...http://www.denverpost.com/theatershooting/ci_21147699/christian-bale-town-visiting-victims-shooting

When a film is making 18 million dollars a day, lines like the one you describe are normal. It's not something shocking or out of the ordinary when a film opens to 160 mill for it to have huge weekdays. It's not like this made 20 mill opening weekend and you have a 3/4 full theater on a Tuesday, that would be worth reporting. But when you make 18 mill, of course there are going to be huge crowds for many showings across the continent.

[baumer]

Just wait for the huge Wednesday drop...

I had it at 13.5 on Thursday. I think it should drop about 20% today and another 6-10% tomorrow.

[#ED]

So this movie will take 6 days for $200M...

[MagnetMan]

So this movie will take 6 days for $200M...

But it's hard to derive anything from that fact in this case. I never thought this would do TDK numbers, but I'm hoping for an unorthodox run on this. I WANT it to do huge. Same as I want any good-quality CBM to do good, and therefore spawn future good-quality CBMs.

[hasanahmad]

So this movie will take 6 days for $200M...

Legs

[Eastwood47]

When a film is making 18 million dollars a day, lines like the one you describe are normal. It's not something shocking or out of the ordinary when a film opens to 160 mill for it to have huge weekdays. It's not like this made 20 mill opening weekend and you have a 3/4 full theater on a Tuesday, that would be worth reporting. But when you make 18 mill, of course there are going to be huge crowds for many showings across the continent.

Uhm... I was just making an observation about the crowd at my local theater, then added the comment about Bales visit as a projected scenario for down the road. I didn't try and corelate last night's attendance as being the result of Bale visiting the victims. I know you didn't care for this film. But do you honestly need to negate every positive comment about the movie simply because you didn't like it? Lets take a deep breath here and not champion it's demise just because it didn't pleasure your palet enough. Let people have their opinion without you having to run over them with your pessimistic outlook.