CloneWars Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 This weekend is showing that moviegoers are starting to get over the whole shooting thing. So, that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Aren't wednesday drops always higher than Tuesdays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 This weeks numbers should look like...Monday: $9MTuesday: $8MWeds: $5MThurs: $4MHopefully better numbers...You're not doing Tuesday;s right. The only reason TDKR fell on it's first Tuesday is because it's a massive opener and these kinds of films almost always fall on their first Tuesday. Going by 21 mill for TDKR, it might look more like this:Monday: 9.5 (-55%)Tues: 10.65 (+12%)Wed: 8.75 (-18%)Thur: 9.01 (+0.3%)This is more typical, give or a take a few dollars, of how films perform in the summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 So 300 million by Tuesday then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Seng Wah Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 You're not doing Tuesday;s right. The only reason TDKR fell on it's first Tuesday is because it's a massive opener and these kinds of films almost always fall on their first Tuesday. Going by 21 mill for TDKR, it might look more like this:Monday: 9.5 (-55%)Tues: 10.65 (+12%)Wed: 8.75 (-18%)Thur: 9.01 (+0.3%)This is more typical, give or a take a few dollars, of how films perform in the summer.I am also predicting 10+ for Tuesday, if it can go to 11, much better. giving away Wed drop a bit steeper to just 8milThat's a good prediction reference =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Which would make it the third fastest and yet people are still somehow disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 You're not doing Tuesday;s right. The only reason TDKR fell on it's first Tuesday is because it's a massive opener and these kinds of films almost always fall on their first Tuesday. Going by 21 mill for TDKR, it might look more like this:Monday: 9.5 (-55%)Tues: 10.65 (+12%)Wed: 8.75 (-18%)Thur: 9.01 (+0.3%)This is more typical, give or a take a few dollars, of how films perform in the summer.IMAX tends to prevent the drastic drops and increases that we see with regular films. There is no Discount Tuesday for IMAX after all. So I think it will probably drop each day of the week, but it certainly won't drop 37.5% on Wednesday or 20% on Thursday like he predicted. I expect around -55% Monday, then around -5% Tuesday, around -20% Wednesday, and around -5% Thursday. So around $32.5m for the dailies. That would be around $4m ahead of Pirates 2, which gives it even more cushion in Gopher's tracking for $450m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 Look at TDKR like this:DH2 made 71% of its total by the end of week 2. It is one of the most frontloaded series in the history of cinema. If TDKR were to make 71% of it's total after this weekend, that means it would end with 407 mill. It's not going to be like dH2. So 410 is locked, it should finish between 440-460. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 IMAX tends to prevent the drastic drops and increases that we see with regular films. There is no Discount Tuesday for IMAX after all. So I think it will probably drop each day of the week, but it certainly won't drop 37.5% on Wednesday or 20% on Thursday like he predicted. I expect around -55% Monday, then around -5% Tuesday, around -20% Wednesday, and around -5% Thursday. So around $32.5m for the dailies. That would be around $4m ahead of Pirates 2, which gives it even more cushion in Gopher's tracking for $450m.Yes, my %'s are probably skewed a bit, but they will be closer than his when you take into consideration he is giving TDKR a drop on Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 This weeks numbers should look like...Monday: $9MTuesday: $8MWeds: $5MThurs: $4MHopefully better numbers...Those are way to steep of drops on Wed and Thu. Don't worry, it'll do better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 445 is where I see it landing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 You're not doing Tuesday;s right. The only reason TDKR fell on it's first Tuesday is because it's a massive opener and these kinds of films almost always fall on their first Tuesday. Going by 21 mill for TDKR, it might look more like this:Monday: 9.5 (-55%)Tues: 10.65 (+12%)Wed: 8.75 (-18%)Thur: 9.01 (+0.3%)This is more typical, give or a take a few dollars, of how films perform in the summer.So about a $37M week? Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 You're not doing Tuesday;s right. The only reason TDKR fell on it's first Tuesday is because it's a massive opener and these kinds of films almost always fall on their first Tuesday. Going by 21 mill for TDKR, it might look more like this:Monday: 9.5 (-55%)Tues: 10.65 (+12%)Wed: 8.75 (-18%)Thur: 9.01 (+0.3%)This is more typical, give or a take a few dollars, of how films perform in the summer.Wow. Asuming your numbers and a 35 million 3rd weekend, that would give us a 362 cume by next Sunday, 41 million more than DMC in the same point (12.7% better). A 12.7% increase over DMC's total is 476, wide better than numbers we had imagined a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Seng Wah Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 (edited) Does anyone see the Magic Mike's number here in BOM?I THINK it is a mistake?! Bump up 110% from last week LOLhttp://boxofficemojo.../weekend/chart/they have edited and it is correct now~ Edited July 29, 2012 by Michael89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Look at TDKR like this:DH2 made 71% of its total by the end of week 2. It is one of the most frontloaded series in the history of cinema. If TDKR were to make 71% of it's total after this weekend, that means it would end with 407 mill. It's not going to be like dH2. So 410 is locked, it should finish between 440-460.Agreed. I'm also tracking it against SM3 adjusted ($174m weekend, $387m total) and TDKR keeps gaining on SM3 despite TDKR having a $13m disadvantage on opening weekend. Based on some numbers I ran through next weekend ($30m dailies, $34m weekend), it feels like it's creeping up on "lock" for $425m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Which would make it the third fastest and yet people are still somehow disappointedbecause it should have been locked to be fastest according to many here...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 Wow. Asuming your numbers and a 35 million 3rd weekend, that would give us a 362 cume by next Sunday, 41 million more than DMC in the same point (12.7% better). A 12.7% increase over DMC's total is 476, wide better than numbers we had imagined a few days agoWell, I've been predicting 465 for this since 2011. I have never wavered from that and I'm not about to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 Does anyone see the Magic Mike's number here in BOM?I THINK it is a mistake?!http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/Yep, its a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 My 458m prediction in the BSG is looking mighty good right now. Too bad I bombed Avengers/Prometheus/Madagascar/Ted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 But it won't so it's time stop being disappointed and appreciate the run for what it is and what it will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
