XO21 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, a2knet said: I feel Thor3 will be most hurt and may do sub 90m usd unless it's very well received (9/10 or more). Sony is handling BR49's OS so Warner Bros won't mind BR49 and JL so close to each other. Thor 3 at first glance does look (imo) too much like GOGT2 so I agree I don't think BR will last long if the plot is more philosophical driven than action...like Covenant JL might do less than Thor 3 Edited September 28, 2017 by XO21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 1 minute ago, XO21 said: Thor 3 at first glance does look (imo) too much like GOGT2 so I agree I don't think BR will last long if the plot is more philosophical driven than action...like Covenant JL might do less than Thor 3 yes yes no ... $90.5m of WONDR and $95.8m of BVS well within reach. Thinking $95-100m for JL. Might do less than GOTG2 but not less than Thor3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 china release dates are always messed up. Thor 3 date is horrible. JL probably will also be hit by some big local movie but if it has at least 2 weeks of open run, it will be highest of mid level grossers( 600-800m). BR2049 will struggle in China. Thor around 600m. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: china release dates are always messed up. Thor 3 date is horrible. JL probably will also be hit by some big local movie but if it has at least 2 weeks of open run, it will be highest of mid level grossers( 600-800m). BR2049 will struggle in China. Thor around 600m. John Woo's Manhunt Nov.24. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 24 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: John Woo's Manhunt Nov.24. just 1 week after JL. Looks like Thor3, BR49 and JL will collect 80%+ of their boxoffice in week 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said: china release dates are always messed up. Thor 3 date is horrible. JL probably will also be hit by some big local movie but if it has at least 2 weeks of open run, it will be highest of mid level grossers( 600-800m). BR2049 will struggle in China. Thor around 600m. Doctor Strange has almost the same release date in China last year. That film grossed more than $100 million. So I think release date for Thor 3 is just alright. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 2 hours ago, a2knet said: yes yes no ... $90.5m of WONDR and $95.8m of BVS well within reach. Thinking $95-100m for JL. Might do less than GOTG2 but not less than Thor3. No MCU movie has grossed less than $100 million since 2015. So I think you're underestimating Thor 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Is there a BOM like site for chinese grosses? I wanted to see daily grosses of zootopia and dangal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 (edited) @damnitgeorge08 China Box Office Zootopia Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change RMB / M USD / M USD / M USD / M Fri Mar. 4 2 ¥22.62 $3.47 - - $3.47 1 $23.88 - Sat Mar. 5 2 ¥60.54 $9.29 267.63% - $12.76 2 Sun Mar. 6 2 ¥72.45 $11.12 19.69% - $23.88 3 Mon Mar. 7 2 ¥36.42 $5.59 -49.74% - $29.46 4 $89.14 273.36% Tue Mar. 8 1 ¥68.85 $10.56 89.07% - $40.03 5 Wed Mar. 9 1 ¥44.50 $6.83 -35.36% - $46.85 6 Thu Mar. 10 1 ¥43.13 $6.62 -3.08% - $53.47 7 Fri Mar. 11 1 ¥71.44 $10.96 65.64% 215.82% $64.43 8 Sat Mar. 12 1 ¥166.94 $25.61 133.69% 175.77% $90.05 9 Sun Mar. 13 1 ¥149.71 $22.97 -10.32% 106.62% $113.02 10 Mon Mar. 14 1 ¥43.20 $6.63 -71.14% 18.63% $119.65 11 $59.23 -33.55% Tue Mar. 15 1 ¥38.11 $5.85 -11.78% -44.64% $125.49 12 Wed Mar. 16 1 ¥33.49 $5.14 -12.13% -24.74% $130.63 13 Thu Mar. 17 1 ¥28.93 $4.44 -13.63% -32.93% $135.07 14 Fri Mar. 18 2 ¥47.34 $7.26 63.64% -33.74% $142.33 15 Sat Mar. 19 1 ¥108.93 $16.71 130.11% -34.75% $159.05 16 Sun Mar. 20 1 ¥86.04 $13.20 -21.01% -42.53% $172.25 17 Mon Mar. 21 1 ¥18.34 $2.81 -78.68% -57.54% $175.06 18 $27.14 -54.17% Tue Mar. 22 2 ¥17.05 $2.62 -7.06% -55.27% $177.68 19 Wed Mar. 23 2 ¥15.20 $2.33 -10.84% -54.62% $180.01 20 Thu Mar. 24 2 ¥14.09 $2.16 -7.30% -51.29% $182.17 21 Fri Mar. 25 2 ¥19.39 $2.98 37.62% -59.04% $185.15 22 Sat Mar. 26 2 ¥49.89 $7.65 157.27% -54.20% $192.80 23 Sun Mar. 27 2 ¥42.94 $6.59 -13.92% -50.09% $199.39 24 Mon Mar. 28 2 ¥9.85 $1.51 -77.07% -46.33% $200.90 25 $18.63 -31.38% Tue Mar. 29 2 ¥9.72 $1.49 -1.30% -43.00% $202.39 26 Wed Mar. 30 2 ¥9.25 $1.42 -4.85% -39.17% $203.81 27 Thu Mar. 31 2 ¥9.13 $1.40 -1.30% -35.24% $205.21 28 Fri Apr. 1 5 ¥9.43 $1.45 3.28% -51.39% $206.66 29 Sat Apr. 2 3 ¥32.12 $4.93 240.75% -35.62% $211.58 30 Sun Apr. 3 3 ¥41.92 $6.43 30.52% -2.39% $218.02 31 Mon Apr. 4 3 ¥30.18 $4.63 -28.01% 206.51% $222.65 32 $13.09 -29.75% Tue Apr. 5 5 ¥4.51 $0.69 -85.06% -53.62% $223.34 33 Wed Apr. 6 5 ¥4.02 $0.62 -10.73% -56.48% $223.96 34 Thu Apr. 7 5 ¥3.83 $0.59 -4.80% -58.03% $224.54 35 Fri Apr. 8 4 ¥6.35 $0.97 65.78% -32.63% $225.52 36 Sat Apr. 9 3 ¥19.66 $3.02 209.58% -38.79% $228.53 37 Sun Apr. 10 3 ¥16.74 $2.57 -14.87% -60.08% $231.10 38 Mon Apr. 11 4 ¥3.17 $0.49 -81.05% -89.49% $231.59 39 $3.74 -71.45% Tue Apr. 12 4 ¥2.94 $0.45 -7.44% -34.86% $232.04 40 Wed Apr. 13 4 ¥2.87 $0.44 -2.41% -28.79% $232.48 41 Thu Apr. 14 5 ¥2.53 $0.39 -11.83% -34.05% $232.87 42 Fri Apr. 15 8 ¥1.27 $0.19 -49.90% -80.07% $233.06 43 Sat Apr. 16 4 ¥5.83 $0.89 360.56% -70.35% $233.95 44 Sun Apr. 17 4 ¥5.76 $0.88 -1.20% -65.59% $234.84 45 ExRate: $1=¥6.5175 Total Gross = $234.84 million Multiple = 9.84 Edited September 28, 2017 by Gavin Feng 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 @damnitgeorge08 China Box Office Dangal Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change RMB / M USD / M USD / M USD / M Previews Apr.30 - May. 2 - ¥0.33 $0.05 - - $0.05 0 $0.05 - Fri May. 5 2 ¥15.87 $2.30 - - $2.35 1 $12.63 - Sat May. 6 2 ¥32.52 $4.71 100.83% - $7.06 2 Sun May. 7 2 ¥38.46 $5.57 18.28% - $12.63 3 Mon May. 8 2 ¥21.06 $3.05 -45.25% - $15.68 4 $48.83 286.57% Tue May. 9 2 ¥24.57 $3.56 16.66% - $19.24 5 Wed May. 10 1 ¥27.48 $3.98 11.82% - $23.22 6 Thu May. 11 1 ¥27.61 $4.00 0.47% - $27.22 7 Fri May. 12 1 ¥44.41 $6.43 60.86% 174.24% $33.66 8 Sat May. 13 1 ¥97.10 $14.07 118.67% 198.60% $47.72 9 Sun May. 14 1 ¥94.78 $13.73 -2.39% 146.40% $61.46 10 Mon May. 15 1 ¥34.81 $5.04 -63.27% 65.29% $66.50 11 $52.17 6.86% Tue May. 16 1 ¥32.74 $4.74 -5.94% 33.27% $71.24 12 Wed May. 17 1 ¥29.33 $4.25 -10.41% 6.77% $75.49 13 Thu May. 18 1 ¥26.36 $3.82 -10.13% -4.51% $79.31 14 Fri May. 19 1 ¥42.02 $6.09 59.38% -5.38% $85.40 15 Sat May. 20 1 ¥113.36 $16.42 169.82% 16.75% $101.82 16 Sun May. 21 1 ¥81.47 $11.80 -28.14% -14.04% $113.63 17 Mon May. 22 1 ¥23.68 $3.43 -70.94% -31.98% $117.06 18 $23.34 -55.26% Tue May. 23 1 ¥21.69 $3.14 -8.41% -33.77% $120.20 19 Wed May. 24 1 ¥19.92 $2.89 -8.16% -32.11% $123.09 20 Thu May. 25 1 ¥17.70 $2.57 -11.10% -32.84% $125.65 21 Fri May. 26 2 ¥13.21 $1.91 -25.40% -68.56% $127.57 22 Sat May. 27 2 ¥19.85 $2.88 50.32% -82.49% $130.44 23 Sun May. 28 2 ¥45.07 $6.53 127.01% -44.68% $136.97 24 Mon May. 29 2 ¥56.18 $8.14 24.65% 137.28% $145.11 25 $30.41 30.27% Tue May. 30 2 ¥44.10 $6.39 -21.51% 103.34% $151.50 26 Wed May. 31 2 ¥13.40 $1.94 -69.62% -32.74% $153.44 27 Thu Jun. 1 3 ¥32.44 $4.70 142.16% 83.23% $158.14 28 Fri Jun. 2 3 ¥11.83 $1.71 -63.53% -10.43% $159.86 29 Sat Jun. 3 3 ¥27.36 $3.96 131.32% 37.83% $163.82 30 Sun Jun. 4 3 ¥24.58 $3.56 -10.17% -45.46% $167.38 31 Mon Jun. 5 3 ¥8.06 $1.17 -67.20% -85.65% $168.55 32 $9.73 -68.00% Tue Jun. 6 3 ¥8.51 $1.23 5.59% -80.69% $169.78 33 Wed Jun. 7 3 ¥7.91 $1.15 -7.05% -40.92% $170.93 34 Thu Jun. 8 4 ¥7.51 $1.09 -5.13% -76.85% $172.02 35 Fri Jun. 9 5 ¥7.17 $1.04 -4.56% -39.42% $173.06 36 Sat Jun. 10 4 ¥14.64 $2.12 104.31% -46.50% $175.18 37 Sun Jun. 11 4 ¥13.36 $1.94 -8.75% -45.65% $177.11 38 Mon Jun. 12 4 ¥4.92 $0.71 -63.17% -38.98% $177.83 39 $6.11 -37.17% Tue Jun. 13 4 ¥4.77 $0.69 -3.14% -44.03% $178.52 40 Wed Jun. 14 4 ¥4.49 $0.65 -5.87% -43.32% $179.17 41 Thu Jun. 15 5 ¥4.39 $0.64 -2.09% -41.50% $179.80 42 Fri Jun. 16 5 ¥3.92 $0.57 -10.83% -45.35% $180.37 43 Sat Jun. 17 5 ¥9.28 $1.34 136.89% -36.63% $181.72 44 Sun Jun. 18 4 ¥10.44 $1.51 12.56% -21.83% $183.23 45 Mon Jun. 19 5 ¥3.60 $0.52 -65.52% -26.82% $183.75 46 $2.96 -51.57% Tue Jun. 20 5 ¥3.58 $0.52 -0.68% -24.96% $184.27 47 Wed Jun. 21 5 ¥3.58 $0.52 -0.01% -20.29% $184.79 48 Thu Jun. 22 6 ¥3.49 $0.51 -2.28% -20.44% $185.29 49 Fri Jun. 23 9 ¥1.04 $0.15 -70.32% -73.52% $185.44 50 Sat Jun. 24 7 ¥2.44 $0.35 134.93% -73.74% $185.80 51 Sun Jun. 25 6 ¥2.72 $0.39 11.58% -73.96% $186.19 52 Mon Jun. 26 6 ¥1.60 $0.23 -41.28% -55.67% $186.42 53 $1.73 -41.45% Tue Jun. 27 6 ¥1.85 $0.27 15.64% -48.38% $186.69 54 Wed Jun. 28 6 ¥1.98 $0.29 7.10% -44.71% $186.97 55 Thu Jun. 29 8 ¥1.57 $0.23 -20.63% -55.09% $187.20 56 Fri Jun. 30 9 ¥1.13 $0.16 -28.00% 8.94% $187.37 57 Sat Jul. 1 11 ¥1.70 $0.25 50.64% -30.15% $187.61 58 Sun Jul. 2 8 ¥2.15 $0.31 26.14% -21.03% $187.92 59 Mon Jul. 3 8 ¥1.02 $0.15 -52.40% -35.98% $188.07 60 $0.29 -83.14% Tue Jul. 4 8 ¥1.00 $0.14 -2.54% -46.05% $188.22 61 Lifetime Gross = $188.12 million Multiple = 14.9 Exchange Rate: $1=¥6.902 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 ^^^ Both those runs blew my mind away. Dangal beating GOTG2 was some story. And Zootopia's China gross is bigger than DOM of all animations this year except DM3, and only $30m below DM3 (using the ER when Zootopia released). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, a2knet said: ^^^ Both those runs blew my mind away. Dangal beating GOTG2 was some story. And Zootopia's China gross is bigger than DOM of all animations this year except DM3, and only $30m below DM3 (using the ER when Zootopia released). Dangal beating GOTG2 was just start of surprise. It beat every hollywood film this year sans TF5 and F8. Zootopia run was similar to it's run everywhere. In O/W- decent After months- IT DID THIS MUCH!! Is it possible for a major blockbuster to get more than 2.5x legs in china? Let's say thor 3. With BR49 and JL in upcoming weeks, in any stretchable condition, can it retain it's audience or screens or maybe both to attain normal american legs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said: Dangal beating GOTG2 was just start of surprise. It beat every hollywood film this year sans TF5 and F8. Zootopia run was similar to it's run everywhere. In O/W- decent After months- IT DID THIS MUCH!! Is it possible for a major blockbuster to get more than 2.5x legs in china? Let's say thor 3. With BR49 and JL in upcoming weeks, in any stretchable condition, can it retain it's audience or screens or maybe both to attain normal american legs. DR Strange surprised with legs. Exactly 2.50x : $109.19m with $43.67m ow http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel716.htm Not sure what sort of competition it had. But China has gotten front-loaded yearly with increasing number of screens in the ow. I think Thor3, JL, BR49 will be lucky to get 2x. Both War of Apes and SMH are well below 2x. Apes will get to 1.8x while SMH around 1.65x. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 THUafter service feesWar for the Planet - 11.4m / 706.3mHitman's Bodyguard - 9.15m / 132.1m Contratiempo - 6.6m / 131.6m Homecoming - 2.76m / 767.3m Wolf Warrior 2 - 1.23m / 5,666m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Apes3 only 18m away from 724.3m which is $110m according to the ER on OW (402.1m=>$61.07m). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 (edited) Bit surprised by how well Apes 3 is doing in China, just an other example in a long list of me not being good at all to predict that market. Edited September 28, 2017 by Barnack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 29, 2017 Share Posted September 29, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted September 29, 2017 Share Posted September 29, 2017 (edited) 15 hours ago, Barnack said: Bit surprised by how well Apes 3 is doing in China, just an other example in a long list of me not being good at all to predict that market. China is tough to predict and seems to be in constant flux. Looking at the CBMs this year it's tough to find a pattern. For eg: I thought till WONDR DOM and China legs had some similarity (relative to fellow movies) but SMH completely surprised. Movie China OW China Total Ch Multi Dom Multi LOGAN $48,836,328 $105,962,988 2.17x 2.56x GOTG2 $48,563,935 $100,663,260 2.07x 2.66x WONDR $37,676,314 $90,498,909 2.40x 3.99x SMH $69,240,992 $114,398,704 1.65x 2.85x Edited September 29, 2017 by a2knet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hades Posted September 29, 2017 Share Posted September 29, 2017 4 hours ago, a2knet said: China is tough to predict and seems to be in constant flux. Looking at the CBMs this year it's tough to find a pattern. For eg: I thought till WONDR DOM and China legs had some similarity (relative to fellow movies) but SMH completely surprised. Movie China OW China Total Ch Multi Dom Multi LOGAN $48,836,328 $105,962,988 2.17x 2.56x GOTG2 $48,563,935 $100,663,260 2.07x 2.66x WONDR $37,676,314 $90,498,909 2.40x 3.99x SMH $69,240,992 $114,398,704 1.65x 2.85x Interesting data, could you do one for the 2016 CBMs please. How come Spiderman legs were so poor? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted September 29, 2017 Share Posted September 29, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hades said: Interesting data, could you do one for the 2016 CBMs please. How come Spiderman legs were so poor? In 2016 the Ch and Dom legs seem to mirror each other very nicely across all the 4 movies (DP and SS did not release in China). Movie China OW China Total Ch Multi Dom Multi BVS $55,739,150 $95,769,365 1.72x 1.99x CA3 $93,640,448 $180,794,517 1.93x 2.28x APOC $59,587,048 $120,765,095 2.03x 2.36x DR.S $43,666,292 $109,194,913 2.50x 2.74x I don't know why SMH would do only 1.65x. Edited September 29, 2017 by a2knet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...