China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[XXR & Friends]

It feels like this 4/24 debut in China may be even bigger than we think, because it’s garnering a lot of extra hype that they get it first. No 2 weeks of seeing/hearing spoilers or ripped copies on the internet. 

 

I’m not going to let the hype consume me, and I’ll stick to $235m OW / $375m total; but I feel like this might be the equivalent (American film at least) of what TFA was to North America.

Edited March 29, 2019 by VenomXXR

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

It feels like this 4/24 debut in China may be even bigger than we think, because it’s garnering a lot of extra hype that they get it first. No 2 weeks of seeing/hearing spoilers or ripped copies on the internet. 

 

I’m not going to let the hype consume me, and I’ll stick to $235m OW / $375m total; but I feel like this might be the equivalent (American film at least) of what TFA was to North America.

if the weekend will be 235 i dont see how it wont cross 400

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

if the weekend will be 235 i dont see how it wont cross 400

I assume he's talking 5-day is 235, 3-day being 235 is simply impossible with work-day Sunday.

 

In this case 400 wouldn't be exactly likely. Will depend largely on how it fairs during holiday and what locals are around.

[NamakFiskKa]

10 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I’m not going to let the hype consume me, and I’ll stick to $235m OW / $375m total; but I feel like this might be the equivalent (American film at least) of what TFA was to North America.

Is nobody considering that runtime in the equation ?

 

It's like anticipating a Furious 7 like run but with extra ~1hr of feature 

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I assume he's talking 5-day is 235, 3-day being 235 is simply impossible with work-day Sunday.

 

In this case 400 wouldn't be exactly likely. Will depend largely on how it fairs during holiday and what locals are around.

 

Yes I mean 5 day. 

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, NamakFiskKa said:

Is nobody considering that runtime in the equation ?

 

It's like anticipating a Furious 7 like run but with extra ~1hr of feature 

 

Like many people on here (with knowledge of how movie theaters work) have explained, if there is demand it will be met. They will stagger the showings and drop weaker films to boost the screen count. 

[peludo]

5 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Is nobody considering that runtime in the equation ?

 

It's like anticipating a Furious 7 like run but with extra ~1hr of feature 

Well, Endgame (182 minutes) is 22 minutes longer than IW (160). It could have some effect, but not as big as one could think at first.

[peludo]

14 minutes ago, john2000 said:

if the weekend will be 235 i dont see how it wont cross 400

235 in 5-day opening, not 3-day.

[cdsacken]

3 day vs the 5 day may not matter? What will be coming out the next week? Basically nothing?

 

Pikachu isn't till May 10th. I seriously don't see how the 2nd week wouldn't be totally awesome.

[Assassin]

 

[XXR & Friends]

Fun fact...

 

The “anticipation” number on Maoyan for Endgame jumped from 330k to 485k in the last 24 hours 😱

 

If I recall correctly, Infinity War was at about 1 million just before it opened.

[Gavin Feng]

previous record for the daily increase of Maoyan want-to-see is 50-60k. 

 

But still, Highest-grossing import film / $400M lifetime gross is more realistic. 

[charlie Jatinder]

$235mn 5 days will be awful TBH. Nothing below $250mn is satisfactory.

[Olive]

It will have better legs than AIW, also may not have midnights this time.

[UserHN]

9 minutes ago, Olive said:

It will have better legs than AIW, also may not have midnights this time.

Is the early date considered a factor in giving high Maoyan ratings? I'm just thinking that after watching EG, some audiences might be so grateful that they got to see the film first before many countries that they decide to give back by giving the film a high Maoyan rating like 9 or 10.

[charlie Jatinder]

57 minutes ago, Olive said:

It will have better legs than AIW, also may not have midnights this time.

I was suspecting the latter. IMO first 5 days will be roughly double of (Tue + Wed) + (Fri + Sat + Sun) of Ultron IMO.

 

I.e. 

Wed ~ 2X Ultron Tue ~ ¥380mn

Thursday ~ 2X Ultron Wed ~ ¥250mn

 

Friday + Sat + Sun ~ 2X Ultron FSS ~ ¥1075mn

 

If there are midnight screenings, add another ¥70mn.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Is the early date considered a factor in giving high Maoyan ratings? I'm just thinking that after watching EG, some audiences might be so grateful that they got to see the film first before many countries that they decide to give back by giving the film a high Maoyan rating like 9 or 10.

Now I understand why Aquaman worked. It releases 2 weeks before US.

[Gavin Feng]

Don't overestimate or underestimate the power of chinese date before or after US debut. It can be good or not. The news that Aquaman can open on Dec.7 definitely make audience feel more excited, but it is also little harder for WB China to do their promotion job because they have to establish high expectation for local audience who don't really know much about AQM. Venom opened on Nov.9 in China, but it's surprising performance in the rest of the world make Chinese audience know what's more they are going to expect from this Sony film. 

[druv10]

One thing folks should keep in mind, IW was extremely presales heavy which led some doom and gloom on OD and OW. 400M total should be the realistic goal, anything more should be icing on the cake.

[MrGlass2]

6 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Don't overestimate or underestimate the power of chinese date before or after US debut. It can be good or not. The news that Aquaman can open on Dec.7 definitely make audience feel more excited, but it is also little harder for WB China to do their promotion job because they have to establish high expectation for local audience who don't really know much about AQM. Venom opened on Nov.9 in China, but it's surprising performance in the rest of the world make Chinese audience know what's more they are going to expect from this Sony film. 

From these two opposite examples of amazing CBO runs, it doesn't look like the release date matters much tbh.