China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[efialtes76]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It will have 0 impact on any of box office IMO. The film was supposed to be online on THU itself anyways, so anyone who wanted to watch it on his devices in free will be watching it then only. Now they just watching a few days early.

Thanks!

Too much drama for 3 days.

[Issac Newton]

Zero (0) Impact

[TigerPaw]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It will have 0 impact on any of box office IMO. The film was supposed to be online on THU itself anyways, so anyone who wanted to watch it on his devices in free will be watching it then only. Now they just watching a few days early.

Hard to quantify though, i mean there are GA outside of US that does not know it will be a simultaneous streaming release in the US. Fans or people who knows BO and studios obviously knows though.

 

Especially leading to the final days of presales; if i was a GA searching for showtimes or reviews on weibo to decide whether to book a ticket this weekend and saw a HD link out there..i think i will definitely rethink about buying the ticket? I am not sure about the magnitude of impact but i genuinely doubt it will be 0.

 

If GvK opened in China day-and-date vs HBO max release instead of being theaters 1 week earlier - there would definitely have been some impact right? I just think that timing of piracy also matters.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Hard to quantify though, i mean there are GA outside of US that does not know it will be a simultaneous streaming release in the US. Fans or people who knows BO and studios obviously knows though.

 

Especially leading to the final days of presales; if i was a GA searching for showtimes or reviews on weibo to decide whether to book a ticket this weekend and saw a HD link out there..i think i will definitely rethink about buying the ticket? I am not sure about the magnitude of impact but i genuinely doubt it will be 0.

small movie. doesn't really matter 👀

[Issac Newton]

Nothing matters. Warner Bros is not dependent on Box Office. HBO Max will also add some profit. Also, it is not a very heavily budget film.

[LPLC]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Monday Estimates:

The Battle At Lake Changjin : ¥50M (~$7.8M) / ¥4965M (~$772.2M) 19D

My Parents, My Homeland : ¥12M (~$1.9M) / ¥1355M (~$210.7M) 19D

Saturday Fiction : ¥1.6M (~$250K) / ¥16.1M (~$2.5M) 4D

Turandot : ¥1M (~$160K) / ¥15.8M (~$2.5M) 4D

Waterboys : ¥0.9M (~$140K) / ¥59.2M (~$9.2M) 18D

$795M by Thursday and $820M-$825M by Sunday ?

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, LPLC said:

$795M by Thursday and $820M-$825M by Sunday ?

I can not say much about the USD value because one site says $770M until Sunday, so it should be $778M on Monday.

 

BTW, ¥5000M is sure for tomorrow. 

 

Total Projection by WK as I expect

10/24 : ¥5500M-¥5600M

10/31 : ¥5800M-¥5900M

Complete Run : ¥6200M+

[LPLC]

18 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I can not say much about the USD value because one site says $770M until Sunday, so it should be $778M on Monday.

 

BTW, ¥5000M is sure for tomorrow. 

 

Total Projection by WK as I expect

10/24 : ¥5500M-¥5600M

10/31 : ¥5800M-¥5900M

Complete Run : ¥6200M+

¥5500M-¥5600M by Sunday ? Do you expect a flat weekend at ¥400M-¥500M ?

You are very optimistic, I expect more of a weekend around ¥200M and a cumulative ¥5300M by Sunday. 

[Issac Newton]

@LPLC, it's actually not like. Perhaps, for ages China Box Office actually can't be determined well. Only WOM and big OW work out. Legs were never satisfying. That's why many forecast like Deadline Hollywood $1000M+ final for DC3....are never found to be fulfilled. I am fine with your forecast unless there's any major release, TBALC is unlikely to affected. I just have a tensed on Douban ratings that has been reducing each day (will ultimately affect legs) After today's estimate, I will be able to figure out it's weekend.

[titanic2187]

So when can we expect the non-market factor ticket purchase for Chang Jin Lake to subside? A lot of countries have patriotic movies and it is understandable but none of it going this shameless like in China. This is like North Korea, or HItler or ww2 Japan in making.  

[Issac Newton]

Please do not speak about 🗾 Japan in WW2. 

Edited October 19, 2021 by Issac Newton

[The GOAT]

People and their World War 2 analogies 

[Issac Newton]

TBALC has broken ¥5000M barrier (adding ¥33.3M today as of 19:18 CST). Now, running behind Ne Zha (¥5032M), Hi Mom (¥5413M) &Wolf Warrior 2 (¥5689M)

Edited October 19, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

Tuesday Estimates:

The Battle At Lake Changjin : ¥46M (~$7.2M) / ¥5013M (~$785.1M) 20D

My Parents, My Homeland : ¥11M (~$1.7M) / ¥1366M (~$214M) 20D

Knock Knock : ¥1.5M (~$230K) / ¥9.2M (~$1.4M) 🅿️ (Open at 10/22)

Saturday Fiction : ¥1.2M (~$190K) / ¥17.2M (~$2.7M) 5D

Waterboys : ¥0.7M (~$120K) / ¥59.8M (~$9.4M) 19D

 

After surpassing ¥5000M, TBALC immediate target is to reduce Ne Zha (¥5032M) to fourth. With each passing day, the Cumulative total is strongly approaching Hi Mom &Wolf Warrior 2.

 

MPMH is doing excellent with each passing day. Will try ¥1450M+ by Sun (10/24).

Edited October 19, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

TBALC Dailies Projection:

Wed : ¥45-¥50M (¥5058-¥5063M)

Thru : ¥45-¥50M (¥5103-¥5107M)

Fri : ¥70-¥100M (¥5173-¥5203M)

Sat : ¥90-¥120M (¥5263-¥5323M)

Sun : ¥90-¥120M (¥5353-¥5443M)

 

By 10/24, TBALC will target ~¥5400M. Dune opens at 10/22. Box Office might be affected on the opening day. But, if the film follows the former one then TBALC will win the Weekend (10/22-10/24)

[Issac Newton]

TBALC Weekend Projection:

Only by total 

By 10/24 : ¥5350M - ¥5450M (vs Dune)

By 10/31 : ¥5500M - ¥5600M (vs NTTD)

By 11/07 : ¥5700M - ¥5800M (vs Venom 2)

By 11/14 : ¥5850M - ¥5900M (vs Venom 2)

By 11/21 : ¥5900M - ¥5925M

By 11/28 : ¥5925M - ¥5930M

Finals : ¥5800M - ¥6000M

 

NTTD release is going to affect the Daily Box Office and also the weekend. So, forecast after 10/31 can not be determined well. 

 

Note: Venom 2 release date is not confirmed. 

 

[LPLC]

My TBALC Weekend Projection :

 

By 10/24 : ¥5300M - ¥5350M 

By 10/31 : ¥5450M - ¥5500M 

By 11/07 : ¥5550M - ¥5600M 

By 11/14 : ¥5600M - ¥5650M 

Finals : ¥5650M - ¥5700M

 

TBALC will overtake Hi, mom without problems but I still have doubts for WW2, the final run will be very tight.

[Gavin Feng]

Venom 2 is down to 5.8/10 on Douban.

 

Mostly, Douban score doesn't matter so much. But under 6.0/10 is definitely not a good signal. For Hollywood movies, only F9(hail Vin Diesel), The Great Wall(co-pro), xXx(hail Vin Diesel again), The Meg(co-pro) hit ¥1,000M under that situations. 

[LPLC]

9 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Venom 2 is down to 5.8/10 on Douban.

 

Mostly, Douban score doesn't matter so much. But under 6.0/10 is definitely not a good signal. For Hollywood movies, only F9(hail Vin Diesel), The Great Wall(co-pro), xXx(hail Vin Diesel again), The Meg(co-pro) hit ¥1,000M under that situations. 

Let's hope for $150M.

[KP1025]

14 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Let's hope for $150M.

 

That would be a similar drop that F9 had from F8 in China. Will be interesting to see if Maoyan score for Venom 2 does go below 8 like F9.