China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[peludo]

3 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Friday Estimates:

1. 🇨🇳 Be Somebody : ¥21M (~$3.3M) / ¥33M (~$5.2M) 2D

2. 🇨🇳 Anita : ¥12M (~$1.9M) / ¥13M (~$2M) 🆕

3. 🇨🇳 The Battle At Lake Changjin : ¥6.5M (~$1M) / ¥5621M (~$880.9M) 44D ↗️

4. 🇬🇧 007: No Time To Die : ¥6.3M (~$990K) / ¥349M (~$54.7M) 15D ↘️

5. 🇺🇲 Jungle Cruise : ¥4.2M (~$660K) 🆕

 

Unplaced Numbers (Total):

Dune : ¥241M (~$37.8M)

Departures : ¥57.3M (~$9M)

My Parents, My Homeland : ¥1470.3M ($230.4M)

 

TBALC barely ¥68M away from Wolf Warrior 2 (¥5689M). Dune might miss $40M (I am in doubt). Jungle Cruise opened a lot better than Snake Eyes, will target a ¥15M+ OW.

Since it seems that it will be a photo finish ending, just to point that Maoyan has WW2 with 5.694b, not 5.689b

[Elessar]

How's Dune doing, $40m still possible?

[LPLC]

I would say that everything will depend on the weekend and especially this Saturday for TBALC to overtake WW2, but that seems less and less likely to me. Now I think WW2 will stay on top of the Chinese box office, at least TBALC can claim the biggest Chinese movie in terms of usd dollars ahead of WW2, but it will surely end up below in local currency and far behind in admissions. I also wonder if it will be able to overtake Hi, mom in terms of admissions, it will be very tight again and only time will give us the answer.

[LPLC]

2 hours ago, peludo said:

Since it seems that it will be a photo finish ending, just to point that Maoyan has WW2 with 5.694b, not 5.689b

Unfortunately I did not foresee that TBALC fall so strongly, it is losing ground day by day in WW2.

[Issac Newton]

8 hours ago, peludo said:

Since it seems that it will be a photo finish ending, just to point that Maoyan has WW2 with 5.694b, not 5.689b

EnData has Wolf Warrior 2's values as ¥5688.**M so I didn't check Maoyan considering as same value. Quite strange to see ¥5M difference.

https://www.endata.com.cn/BoxOffice/MovieStock/movieShow.html?id=641515

5 hours ago, LPLC said:

Unfortunately I did not foresee that TBALC fall so strongly, it is losing ground day by day in WW2.

Today is it's 45 days of release &I don't know how much we can add in next 45 days Edited November 13, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

6 hours ago, Elessar said:

How's Dune doing, $40m still possible?

I can say $39M or + in surety. But, $40M is in doubt. Well, this weekend will give us finishing line.

[Issac Newton]

Afternoon Interval (14:10 CST)

1. Be Somebody : ¥14.6M /$47.9M (D3)

2. TBALC : ¥7.2M /¥5628M (45th) ↗️

3. Anita : ¥5.5M /¥17.9M (D2) ↘️

4. NTTD : ¥4.8M /¥354M (16th)

5. Jungle Cruise : ¥3.1M /¥7.4M (D2)

[xieh tie]

 

theatrical release is most-likely planned for Chinese New Year 2022

[Issac Newton]

Evening Interval (17:00 CST)

1. Be Somebody : ¥24.5M /¥57.8M (D3)

2. TBALC : ¥9.3M /¥5630M (45th)

3. Anita : ¥8.3M /¥20.5M (D2)

4. NTTD : ¥7.6M /¥357M (16th)

5. Jungle Cruise : ¥4.6M /¥8.9M (D2)

[Issac Newton]

Jungle Cruise's total passed ¥10M. Currently, projecting ¥15M-¥20M+ OW.

[Issac Newton]

Saturday Estimates:

1. 🇨🇳 Be Somebody : ¥49.5M (~$7.8M) / ¥82.8M (~$13M) 3D /OW

2. 🇨🇳 Anita : ¥15M (~$2.3M) / ¥27.2M (~$4.3M) 2D /OW

3. 🇨🇳 The Battle At Lake Changjin : ¥14M (~$2.2M) / ¥5635M (~$883.3M) 45D

4. 🇬🇧 007: No Time To Die : ¥13M (~$2M) / ¥362M (~$56.7M) 16D

5. 🇺🇲 Jungle Cruise : ¥9M (~$1.4M) / ¥13M (~$2M) 2D /OW

 

Unplaced Numbers (Total):

Dune : ¥243M (~$38.2M)

Departures : ¥59M (~$9.3M)

My Parents, My Homeland : ¥1471M ($230.7M)

 

TBALC at ¥5635M, barely ¥59M away from Wolf Warrior 2 (¥5694M) per Maoyan. Tomorrow, the cumulative total will lift up to ¥5645M. By 11/18, it should be over ¥5653M, while weekend until 11/21, should add it's total to ¥5663M. Interesting thing is that, we don't know if it can pass Wolf Warrior 2 or not (Maoyan currently forecast a lower finishing line).

 

In two days, The Rock's Jungle Cruise passed Snake Eyes (¥11.3M). Denis Villeneuve's Dune is likely to end weekend passing $38.5M, while Daniel Craig's NTTD will pass $58M tomorrow.

[LPLC]

To tell the truth, this Saturday reassures me a little for TBALC, but nothing is gained. It will be a really tight race until the end.

[juni78ukr]

4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

TBALC at ¥5635M, barely ¥59M away from Wolf Warrior 2 (¥5694M) per Maoyan. Tomorrow, the cumulative total will lift up to ¥5645M. By 11/18, it should be over ¥5653M, while weekend until 11/21, should add it's total to ¥5663M. Interesting thing is that, we don't know if it can pass Wolf Warrior 2 or not (Maoyan currently forecast a lower finishing line).

 

TBALC would make 50,5-51 mln ¥ from Monday to Sunday with 45% weekend drop, With ¥25-27 mln next week it will be around ¥5670-5671 mln. Another 50% drop will give us ¥12-14 mln and at least ¥5682 mln by November, 28. Don't see how it can miss the record. 

Edited November 13, 2021 by juni78ukr

[poweranimals]

Is there anything coming out next weekend?

[Issac Newton]

5 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

TBALC would make 50,5-51 mln ¥ from Monday to Sunday with 45% weekend drop, With ¥25-27 mln next week it will be around ¥5670-5671 mln. Another 50% drop will give us ¥12-14 mln and at least ¥5682 mln by November, 28. Don't see how it can miss the record. 

We have another 45 days. But, you have provided projection until 21 days. So at 28 days, we will be at ¥5688M (50% drop each week). By 35 days, we will be over ¥5691M, by 42 days, we will be over ¥5693M, by 45 days, we will be over ¥5694M. Somewhere finishing at ¥5695M. I don't see any delimited figure. But, drop should be less than 50% each week. Other things, is that, TBALC will top EnData chart because it did not add re-release figure for Wolf Warrior 2.

 

Wolf Warrior 2 Box Office

At Maoyan : ¥5694M

At EnData : ¥5689M (¥5688.74M)

[charlie Jatinder]

The figure to beat is ¥5,694,543,000.

[Olive]

Don't worry , Bona will fudge it to beat the record, they always do.

[charlie Jatinder]

43 minutes ago, Olive said:

Don't worry , Bona will fudge it to beat the record, they always do.

Yeah don't make sense to let it go getting this near. Just need ¥10M of pumping the sales to make it comfort.

Edited November 14, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Issac Newton]

Just a question. Is large scale ticket buying like ¥1M - ¥10M by a single individual possible? Example like manager buying tickets for all of his/her colleagues &staff at Office /Owner buying big-big screens for all of his/her employees.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

Sunday Estimates:

1. 🇨🇳 Be Somebody : ¥56M (~$8.9M) / ¥140M (~$21.9M) 4D /OW

2. 🇨🇳 Anita : ¥14M (~$2.2M) / ¥42M (~$6.6M) 3D /OW

3. 🇨🇳 The Battle At Lake Changjin : ¥11M (~$1.7M) / ¥5646M (~$885M) 46D

4. 🇬🇧 007: No Time To Die : ¥8.5M (~$1.3M) / ¥371M (~$58.1M) 17D

5. 🇺🇲 Jungle Cruise : ¥7.9M (~$1.2M) / ¥21M (~$3.3M) 3D /OW

 

Unplaced Numbers (Total):

Dune : ¥245M (~$38.4M)

Departures : ¥61M (~$9.6M)

My Parents, My Homeland : ¥1472.5M (~$230.8M)

 

Be Somebody, added is up more than its estimated Saturday Gross with over ¥140M (~$21.9M) on it's OW (4D), accounting more than 50% of market share. Looks like a promising ¥300M+ (~$47M) finishing line.

 

Anita is always tricky in terms of daily ranking, which starts below TBALC at morning shows, rising slowly at afternoon, nearing at evening, &passed TBALC at Night Shows. Good Starts with ¥41M (~$6.4M) on it's OW (3D). Should try for a finishing line with ¥100M ($15.7M)+.

 

TBALC ranked third, although overtaking NTTD, yet felt behind two new weekend release (Be Somebody &Anita). Nearing Wolf Warrior 2 (¥5694M) where distance between the two is less than ¥50M, still have a market share higher than 10%. Although, competition seem to be tough yet Bona not ready to give up as commented by Olive.

 

NTTD decently passed $58M, approaching $60M+ before next weekend. While The Rock's Jungle Cruise enjoyed ¥20M+ weekend, better than Snake Eyes (¥11.3M). On the other hand, Denis Villeneuve's Dune minted $38.4M until today, planned to end with ± $40M as finals.