China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Isn’t that highly unlikely tho? Especially with Wandering Earth 2 coming on CNY?

Yeah now more so with improving opening situation. It was just a IF statement.

[interiorgatordecorator]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

ATP is still ¥83. It can actually stay ¥75+, if it does need 92M admits for $1B.

 

Doable, especially if it is allowed to play through Chinese New Year like first one.

 

Its all coming together for avatar 2, I just hope its a movie worthy (quality wise) of reaching 3 billion

[Borobudur]

China daily new Covid cases drop to below 20k, it was above nearly 2 weeks ago.

 

And the cinema opening rate is now at 59% or ~7300 cinema. Beijing start showing major opening. 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Borobudur

[JustLurking]

70%+ should be quite doable by OD. Cases and restriction will still deter peeps, but conditions should be acceptable enough I guess.

Edited December 9, 2022 by JustLurking

[interiorgatordecorator]

maoyan stagnating?

[Gavin Feng]

34 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

maoyan stagnating?

 

nope. The film slows down. I'm not sure if the rest of people are eager to buy ticket so early. It would be horrible that you test positive just before you're about to see it. I tested positive yesterday without knowing how it happened. I was worried that I had to give up my original plan of watching it. But I was lucky because I almost recovered 12 hours after testing. But some people I know still feel uncomfortable after few days.

[Borobudur]

42 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

nope. The film slows down. I'm not sure if the rest of people are eager to buy ticket so early. It would be horrible that you test positive just before you're about to see it. I tested positive yesterday without knowing how it happened. I was worried that I had to give up my original plan of watching it. But I was lucky because I almost recovered 12 hours after testing. But some people I know still feel uncomfortable after few days.

Will there be a huge infection wave coming soon? I hope the number of cases can stay stable until end of the year and thenafter is a bonus for Avatar 2. 

[Gavin Feng]

8 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Will there be a huge infection wave coming soon? I hope the number of cases can stay stable until end of the year and thenafter is a bonus for Avatar 2. 

 

it will be. The peak is probably going to appear around Dec.15, according to local expert. 

 

But it may not be a real limitation. Especially Chinese authorities, now trying to dissipate fears about COVID, keep saying omicron is nothing, adding 80~90% people could be tested positive. Feels like we have a whole different government and party in recent weeks. Some people on social media say they realize there is possibility of contracting the coronavirus during watching Avatar, but they would be fine with the potential result, because it's totally worthwhile.

 

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

it will be. The peak is probably going to appear around Dec.15, according to local expert. 

 

But it may not be a real limitation. Especially Chinese authorities, now trying to dissipate fears about COVID, keep saying omicron is nothing, adding 80~90% people could be tested positive. Feels like we have a whole different government and party in recent weeks. Some people on social media say they realize there is possibility of contracting the coronavirus during watching Avatar, but they would be fine with the potential result, because it's totally worthwhile.

 

The peak is projected to come on around Dec 15? Hong Kong and South Korea experience harsh wave in early 2022, I hope that doesn't happened to China during the first 2 weeks of Avatar because I still believe there is a risk the government will impose back restriction on leisure activities if crazy wave like in HK and SK happened. 

[Gavin Feng]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

The peak is projected to come on around Dec 15? Hong Kong and South Korea experience harsh wave in early 2022, I hope that doesn't happened to China during the first 2 weeks of Avatar because I still believe there is a risk the government will impose back restriction on leisure activities if crazy wave like in HK and SK happened. 

they probably wouldn't do restriction any more. The government are more afraid about student activism.

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

they probably wouldn't do restriction any more. The government are more afraid about student activism.

#studentpower

[GOGODanca]

https://twitter.com/Franspeech/status/1601208313714442241?s=20&t=qsAfQQ07nM8vuGv7gr7_LA

[XXR & Friends]

On 12/7/2022 at 6:57 PM, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Maoyan WTS = 1316164

 

 

WTS has slowed down significantly now that tickets are on sale. It has only gone up 48K in nearly 2 days. Probably won't hit 1.5M

 

Maoyan WTS = 1363988

[Sheldon Cr]

8 hours ago, Borobudur said:

The peak is projected to come on around Dec 15? Hong Kong and South Korea experience harsh wave in early 2022, I hope that doesn't happened to China during the first 2 weeks of Avatar because I still believe there is a risk the government will impose back restriction on leisure activities if crazy wave like in HK and SK happened. 

Hows the tracking for OW in China.. Oh  and Boro what was the biggest OW in china so far. I know everyone is yelling  finally in China now that its finally happening and  having showings. The way of the Water finally debuts.

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Hows the tracking for OW in China.. Oh  and Boro what was the biggest OW in china so far. I know everyone is yelling  finally in China now that its finally happening and  having showings. The way of the Water finally debuts.

 

Biggest OW in China is $398M. 

 

A2 is probably looking at $175-200M.

[Sophia Jane]

Interesting,some people on China social media said is James Cameron is the backroom man of the entire protest to let his Avatar 2 success in China

Somebody even believe this ridiculous conspiracy theory but not believe James Cameron and his Avatar is just so lucky

Edited December 9, 2022 by Bruce

[Sheldon Cr]

11 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

Biggest OW in China is $398M. 

 

A2 is probably looking at $175-200M.

Thank you brother XXR.. Was that one of Chinas own behemoths  that had that crazy OW??

Thats some good numbers for Avatar 2 OW in comparison. Is that 398 from a 4-6 day OW?? Wow!!

 

I have no idea on china, but I hope it it hits your numbers. Whats the highend you think> 

 

250-300M for the OW?

 

[XXR & Friends]

8 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Thank you brother XXR.. Was that one of Chinas own behemoths  that had that crazy OW??

Thats some good numbers for Avatar 2 OW in comparison. Is that 398 from a 4-6 day OW?? Wow!!

 

I have no idea on china, but I hope it it hits your numbers. Whats the highend you think> 

 

250-300M for the OW?

 

 

Yes it was a Chinese film (Detective Chinatown 3) and that was a 3 day weekend I believe. Avengers Endgame holds the non-Chinese film China record @ $330M w/ a 5 day opening.

 

As for the high end, it's really hard to tell. Right now, 60% of theaters are open. Hopefully we get up to 70% by opening day. Lets say $400M was the max if everything was totally normal and open. If we just go by the most basic math and say 70% of 400 = 280 then maybe $280M is the max right now? Not really sure. 

 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

Yes it was a Chinese film (Detective Chinatown 3) and that was a 3 day weekend I believe. Avengers Endgame holds the non-Chinese film China record @ $330M w/ a 5 day opening.

 

As for the high end, it's really hard to tell. Right now, 60% of theaters are open. Hopefully we get up to 70% by opening day. Lets say $400M was the max if everything was totally normal and open. If we just go by the most basic math and say 70% of 400 = 280 then maybe $280M is the max right now? Not really sure. 

 

avatar will have all the imax and plf screens. So if it can get 70% of screen share it will probably be close to 85-90% of BO potential. That said that is max and not what is expected. For all you know audience will avoid crowding and will wait for following week to see the movie. 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

avatar will have all the imax and plf screens. So if it can get 70% of screen share it will probably be close to 85-90% of BO potential. That said that is max and not what is expected. For all you know audience will avoid crowding and will wait for following week to see the movie. 

 

Correct.