China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Olive]

several local movies will open Thursday to Saturday to take advantage of NYD holiday.

Mojin will finish around Lost in HK, and Devil and Angel will collapse to earth.

New Years Eve showtimes:

Detective Chinatown 35%

Heart for Heaven 21.5%

Mr. Six 16.5%

Mojin 13.9%

D&A 9.4%

 

Early presales for SW7 are not outstanding, IMAX shows in big cities selling fast while normal formats selling slow.

Edited December 30, 2015 by The Good Olive

[A Marvel Fanboy]

So Decmeber looks to clock on 4.3B, finally +60%+ from Dec 2014. That makes a 44B 2015.

 

As for Jan 2016, lets be a little conservative: DC 600m + Sherlock 200m + SW 1.2B + Panda 700m + others 1B = 3.7B (4B possible) should be floor, already 40% increase from Jan 2015. 

 

Feb should be 6B+. In fact, the first six months of 2016 should all be able to increase 40~50%, at least.  It will rely on the second half year, which seems to have much weaker slate of both local and imported films.

Edited December 30, 2015 by firedeep

[keysersoze123]

if it increases 40-50% in April/May I will be impressed.

 

Wait. Panda will make 700m just in January. Wont that require crazy OW number?

Edited December 30, 2015 by keysersoze123
z

[A Marvel Fanboy]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

if it increases 40-50% in April/May I will be impressed.

 

Wait. Panda will make 700m just in January. Wont that require crazy OW number?

Apr 2015 was 4.1B, but May only 3.2B, combined 7.3B.

 

Apr + May 2016 could do 10B+ ... (+36%). it wont be easy but achivable I think. I am confident 30% yearly increase is floor ...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

For KFP3, 700m OW is not hard (that's about 65 people per show, similar to Mojin and  ), (its the legs into CNY holiday that is worring). TF4 did 600m+ OW in 2014, MH, LiHK and MOJIN all did 600m+ OW. KFP3 has shorter runtime than all of them. it should average 100k+ shows per day in its OW, breaking the record.

[Quigley]

China's just insane. Really fun to watch this market boom. What about Star Wars presales? When do they start?

[terrestrial]

China Box Office Retweeted

Julie Makinen ‏@JulieMakLAT 

Movie ticket sales jump 48% in China, but Hollywood has reason to worry: it's not sharing equally in the bonanza. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-et-1230-ct-china-box-office-20151230-story.html …

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, quigquag33 said:

China's just insane. Really fun to watch this market boom. What about Star Wars presales? When do they start?

6256 admissions.

[Quigley]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

China Box Office Retweeted

Julie Makinen ‏@JulieMakLAT 

Movie ticket sales jump 48% in China, but Hollywood has reason to worry: it's not sharing equally in the bonanza. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-et-1230-ct-china-box-office-20151230-story.html …

 

Foreign films increased by 24%. I don't see why Hollywood should be worrying. I don't want this to sound like a generalisation but as long as your money has increased, the fact that your share of the pie has decreased shouldn't worry you. Not unless this continues to happpen for many years.

 

Just take a look at this table: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinema_of_China#Box_office_and_screens

 

Except 2012, domestic share in China was above 50% and it has hit 61% before, in 2008. Nothing to worry about. The LA Times article is just American propaganda, in combination with some taken-out-of-context data.

Edited December 30, 2015 by quigquag33

[sgchn40]

7 hours ago, firedeep said:

So Decmeber looks to clock on 4.3B, finally +60%+ from Dec 2014. That makes a 44B 2015.

 

As for Jan 2016, lets be a little conservative: DC 600m + Sherlock 200m + SW 1.2B + Panda 700m + others 1B = 3.7B (4B possible) should be floor, already 40% increase from Jan 2015. 

 

Feb should be 6B+. In fact, the first six months of 2016 should all be able to increase 40~50%, at least.  It will rely on the second half year, which seems to have much weaker slate of both local and imported films.

 

Incredible! How many new theatres will be open next year?

[terrestrial]

21 minutes ago, quigquag33 said:

 

Foreign films increased by 24%. I don't see why Hollywood should be worrying. I don't want this to sound like a generalisation but as long as your money has increased, the fact that your share of the pie has decreased shouldn't worry you. Not unless this continues to happpen for many years.

 

Just take a look at this table: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinema_of_China#Box_office_and_screens

 

Except 2012, domestic share in China was above 50% and it has hit 61% before, in 2008. Nothing to worry about. The LA Times article is just American propaganda, in combination with some taken-out-of-context data.

 

You do not have to quote me to state your opinion, I am only a kind of messenger.

I follow BO related tweets, for the moment mostly focused on NA BO if I have the time to do so, as that market is at the time my main ~ project to look more in-depth into.

If they mention details, articles... I think my be of interest for per country related threads I post them there, if no one else hadn't done so already.

I am interested into China's movie business too, but I work in ~ projects style, means if I am reading up, I do so for a few weeks very focused and never at the same time I am already focusing on another market.

I do also 2 movies per year projects, then I'll look into all ww accessable detail for those, but not focusing on any market at the same time.

 

= not unfriendly meant, it's difficult to write that in a foreign language, and only of importance if you tried to start a discussion / communication with me about that theme.

[movieboner]

All the dumb Star Wars fanboys are begging China to gross $600 million, so their precious film can destroy Avatar worldwide. The weed is strong in them.

 

Another question to ask is why would China's government let a foreign film dominate their film market, the domestic film industry is improving with domestic hits defeating their Hollywood rivals. The market is growing faster than expected which exceeded $6.5 billion this year, but with domestic films taking a larger share of the market. They would rather have their domestic films get rich, so one day a Chinese film company can rival Disney worldwide.

 

 

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, movieboner said:

All the dumb Star Wars fanboys are begging China to gross $600 million, so their precious film can destroy Avatar worldwide. The weed is strong in them.

 

Another question to ask is why would China's government let a foreign film dominate their film market, the domestic film industry is improving with domestic hits defeating their Hollywood rivals. The market is growing faster than expected which exceeded $6.5 billion this year, but with domestic films taking a larger share of the market. They would rather have their domestic films get rich, so one day a Chinese film company can rival Disney worldwide.

 

 

 

Is this any different from the Avatar fans thinking the sequel will do $600-800 million, or that it will be allowed to run for 2 months instead of 1 like the original? 

[efialtes76]

5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Is this any different from the Avatar fans thinking the sequel will do $600-800 million, or that it will be allowed to run for 2 months instead of 1 like the original? 

The dfference is that Avatar did $204m in 2010...

[KP1025]

Just now, efialtes76 said:

The dfference is that Avatar did $204m in 2010...

 

My post was less about the numbers and more about the second part of his post where he mentioned why the Chinese government would let a Hollywood film dominate. Avatar fans seem to think Cameron has special favors and will be given preferential treatment. e.g. 2 month run, less screen count drops.

 

For what it's worth, I'm not expecting Star Wars to do well at all in China. It's relatively flat without any pre-existing knowledge of the franchise. 

[Cynosure]

53 minutes ago, movieboner said:

All the dumb Star Wars fanboys are begging China to gross $600 million, so their precious film can destroy Avatar worldwide. The weed is strong in them.

 

Another question to ask is why would China's government let a foreign film dominate their film market, the domestic film industry is improving with domestic hits defeating their Hollywood rivals. The market is growing faster than expected which exceeded $6.5 billion this year, but with domestic films taking a larger share of the market. They would rather have their domestic films get rich, so one day a Chinese film company can rival Disney worldwide.

 

 

 

In the upcoming years, for the first time since popular cinema really began over 100 years ago, the domestic market won't be the biggest in the world. And it's far from anecdotic, especially if China's market growth continues for years and years, as it puts Hollywood studios in a new position which they will have to learn to accept : that of the dominated in the balance of power. With Hollywood blockbusters having exponential costs, with the domestic market increasing just moderately and with OS markets either stagnating or facing currency issues, they kind of have to play by China's rules.

 

The growth of the Chinese market and the future dynamics between it and the domestic market have the potential to make for one of the most interesting aspects of upcoming movie-making business, although it's certainly not without negative aspects such as the rough censorship in China further weakening cinematic creativity. That is if there is any creativity to destroy when it comes to big blockbusters with China already going full sequel road as evidenced by the 'Lost in' sequel and the 'Monster Hunt 2' annoucement.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Cynosure

[Elessar]

12 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

My post was less about the numbers and more about the second part of his post where he mentioned why the Chinese government would let a Hollywood film dominate. Avatar fans seem to think Cameron has special favors and will be given preferential treatment. e.g. 2 month run, less screen count drops.

 

For what it's worth, I'm not expecting Star Wars to do well at all in China. It's relatively flat without any pre-existing knowledge of the franchise. 

 

He has ties to China. He's working with a Chinese company for the Terminator 2 3D re-release, which is being made specifically for the Chinese market but will also be released elsewhere. I dunno if that will help Cameron keep Avatar 2 longer in theaters there but it certainly doesn't hurt.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/terminator-2-3d-rerelease-set-849272

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, movieboner said:

All the dumb Star Wars fanboys are begging China to gross $600 million, so their precious film can destroy Avatar worldwide. The weed is strong in them.

 

Another question to ask is why would China's government let a foreign film dominate their film market, the domestic film industry is improving with domestic hits defeating their Hollywood rivals. The market is growing faster than expected which exceeded $6.5 billion this year, but with domestic films taking a larger share of the market. They would rather have their domestic films get rich, so one day a Chinese film company can rival Disney worldwide.

 

 

 

IMHO: Even such extreme (and badly researched) bias as you show here should be possible to formulate in still a friendly way.

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, Cynosure said:

 

In the upcoming years, for the first time since popular cinema really began over 100 years ago, the domestic market won't be the biggest in the world. And it's far from anecdotic, especially if China's market growth continues for years and years, as it puts Hollywood studios in a new position which they will have to learn to accept : that of the dominated in the balance of power. With Hollywood blockbusters having exponential costs, with the domestic market increasing just moderately and with OS markets either stagnating or facing currency issues, they kind of have to play by China's rules.

 

The growth of the Chinese market and the future dynamics between it and the domestic market have the potential to make for one of the most interesting aspects of upcoming movie-making business, although it's certainly not without negative aspects such as the rough censorship in China further weakening cinematic creativity. That is if there is any creativity to destroy when it comes to big blockbusters with China already going full sequel road as evidenced by the 'Lost in' sequel and the 'Monster Hunt 2' annoucement.

 

Unless the share going back to the studio increases and a robust ancillary market actually emerges revenues made in China can't compare at all to Domestic grosses, or even those from say the UK.  Right now every $1 made in the US at a theater equates to about 7 times more profit than one in China for a U.S. film.  They're certainly not going to turn their nose at the extra growing revenue from China but it's a long way to tipping any balance of power and having to completely cater to China as opposed to adding in a couple of minutes of China service.

[Cynosure]

48 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Unless the share going back to the studio increases and a robust ancillary market actually emerges revenues made in China can't compare at all to Domestic grosses, or even those from say the UK.  Right now every $1 made in the US at a theater equates to about 7 times more profit than one in China for a U.S. film.  They're certainly not going to turn their nose at the extra growing revenue from China but it's a long way to tipping any balance of power and having to completely cater to China as opposed to adding in a couple of minutes of China service.

 

Strategies to increase shares going back to studios such as co-productions or having certain Chinese actors involved are already emerging as studios are well aware that, for example, an extra decade of 15% growth alone is enough for the box office potential of China to be multiplied by 4. Such growth which isn't really unimaginable (next year alone should again be in the 30% range) along with increased shares will mean that $1 in the US could actually quite quickly bring about as much profit as one for a U.S film in China...if not less.

Edited December 31, 2015 by Cynosure