China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Fake]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I did not look that long back. So that makes sense. I agree with 15m for sunday as well. I dont know how its gonna increase from sunday with 1/3 the shows. Even with early close KFP3 has 30k+ shows for tomorrow. weird that it has only 9.4% attendance.

It can increase..... but not by much.

 

Last year.... two movies with comparable showtimes did 23M (8.4% showtimes) and 19M (7.5% showtimes). So that's 2.6-2.7M yuan per % of showtime. (Major openers had 4M+ per % of showtime, but that was because of better screens.)

 

Now, even if we assume 50% increase in gross per % due to theater expansion + higher ticket price, it only works out to be 4M for small openers/holdovers (and 6M+ for big openers). So KFP3 with 5% showtimes should do around 20M.

 

I don't see 30M+ at all! I don't know why NP is predicting so high..... he is usually good with predictions......

Edited February 6, 2016 by Fake

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Last year opened to 360m and hovered close to 300m for the next 5 days.

It's definitely going to open over 500m.  The same pattern would be 4.8x OD. If it's 600m then 2.88B would happen if none of the movies collapse due BWOM. 

That's not a projection @keysersoze123 jjust an example. 

 

He was asking for prediction. So I am gonna take this as a gospel.

[druv10]

Presales have shot up plus showtimes have increased up to 4.2% for KFP3. It's going to need  one of the new openers to flop and it should survive and make a run towards 1.2B.

[Fake]

2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Presales have shot up plus showtimes have increased up to 4.2% for KFP3. It's going to need  one of the new openers to flop and it should survive and make a run towards 1.2B.

First let's do 1B..... then we can talk about 1.2B

[druv10]

4 minutes ago, Fake said:

First let's do 1B..... then we can talk about 1.2B

True, DWA can screw themselves with this ridiculous release date. With a Feb 8th release, KFP3 is looking at atleast 250-300M and probably more with great WOM.

[Fake]

2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

 

Forgot the decimal. 65.8 Yuan 

 

PS 5M

PS 12-15m Tomorrow nite

Monday 40-60m chicken

I'm thinking:

 

PS 5M

PS 9-10 Tomorrow nite

Monday 18-20

[Daxtreme]

What are your predictions for KFP3 total china gross in $USD? I know next to nothing about Chinese box office

[MinaTakla]

43 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

What are your predictions for KFP3 total china gross in $USD? I know next to nothing about Chinese box office

It was predicted last year to make around 300m USD or more (some said it might chase FF7)

But realistically given the box office performance so far it's gonna reach around 170m USD or maybe 180m USD in total. 

[MinaTakla]

1 hour ago, druv10 said:

True, DWA can screw themselves with this ridiculous release date. With a Feb 8th release, KFP3 is looking at atleast 250-300M and probably more with great WOM.

Exactly. Why was it so hard for them to just move to Feb 8? I don't get it! I don't know if it's arrogance or hastiness.. But eitherway if they had the choice to pick a date then they are to blame.

[Bluebomb]

1 hour ago, MinaTakla said:

Exactly. Why was it so hard for them to just move to Feb 8? I don't get it! I don't know if it's arrogance or hastiness.. But eitherway if they had the choice to pick a date then they are to blame.

There are probably several reasons why.

 

1. Piracy - They don't want this released a week later. They lose money otherwise.

2. No respect for/understanding of China market - They either did not know how China's market works and decided to dump in January or didn't care and thought the holidays would see it increase its 2nd weekend a la Star Wars 7.

3. Not allowed to change it - If the SARFT did not give clearance for that date because it is a Hollywood film and a co-production then maybe it is why they released it earlier.

 

If it is the 2nd reason, then they are entirely to blame. I mean come on, if Disney had Star Wars 7 on this date, do you think theaters would happily sign giving SW7 another week of the biggest screens on the biggest weekend of the year? Hell no. If it is either the 1st or 3rd reason then they should have changed the date to allow KFP3 to have the screens necessary to gross a substantial run. What about opening KFP3 one week after holidays? It certainly can't be as bad as one week before.

 

If scheduling was up to me, KFP3 would premiere in most Asian territories (- Japan) on February 8 to take advantage of the New Year holidays. Rest of the world gets it one week later including US. I still don't understand why DWA decided to dump this in January of all places in N.America. The whole release strategy for KFP3 strikes me as odd. Who releases an animation late January when it is a dead zone in most territories?

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, Fake said:

First let's do 1B..... then we can talk about 1.2B

1B, 1.1B, 1.2B will be decides on Monday when 20m , 30m or 40m.

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, Fake said:

 

I don't see 30M+ at all! I don't know why NP is predicting so high..... he is usually good with predictions......

Just going by standard presale patterns that Ive noticed. It usually works except for the occasional anomoly. I tend to hold to my guns when something works out consistently. It works for me for trading stocks and it works for the BO derby. 

We will know in 24 hours!

Edited February 6, 2016 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

Let's get something str8 here @keysersoze123 

I keep saying 30s and higher and you keep saying teens along with @Fake so don't go running victory laps if it comes in at 27m. We will both be wrong. I won't mind if it comes in at 34m. I will be damn close to right and Olive can win a premium account and change his name to Olive Johnny Kylin Storm

[Lihongkim]

7 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

It was predicted last year to make around 300m USD or more (some said it might chase FF7)

But realistically given the box office performance so far it's gonna reach around 170m USD or maybe 180m USD in total. 

If KFP3 can reach $170M, it would be great in current situation. I also hope that. But I'm afraid my heart will be broken again. 

+ today, its total gross won't pass 700M Yuan. It's hope depends on how good its leg Mon-Sat. Sun, several local romantic movies release so it won't do more. 

A question is how good its leg Mon-Sat? My answer : Hero is Back is still safe.

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Let's get something str8 here @keysersoze123 

I keep saying 30s and higher and you keep saying teens along with @Fake so don't go running victory laps if it comes in at 27m. We will both be wrong. I won't mind if it comes in at 34m. I will be damn close to right and Olive can win a premium account and change his name to Olive Johnny Kylin Storm

 

I can see it go higher than teens(may be another 5m). But that should be the best case scenario.

[Fake]

9 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Just going by standard presale patterns that Ive noticed. It usually works except for the occasional anomoly. I tend to hold to my guns when something works out consistently. It works for me for trading stocks and it works for the BO derby. 

We will know in 24 hours!

But today it will not follow the "standard presale pattern". @2PM today KFP3 is at 6M presales...... and normally it would have got 5-6x from here.... i.e. 30M+ (about 15-20% presales are done by this point). But you have to keep in mind that for the whole day 270M of presales is already done, which would be over 40% of the whole day business. I'd give KFP3 3-3.5x from here for 18-20M.

 

[keysersoze123]

I think 45% is done. For openers I would say 2.2x at this point. You should be right about KFP3 at this point.

 

I assume KFP3 would do 70% of of what it will do beyond this week in next 6 days. So I think even 1B could be tough. Especially with so many releases opening ahead and 3 big movies taking most of the screens.

Edited February 7, 2016 by keysersoze123

[Polaroids]

According to this - http://weibo.com/5768800667/DgKENmJow, Mermaid already broke Lost in Hongkong's presale record (99.92 million yuan) with 100 million yuan in opening day presales. How much are we predicting for the CNY movies?

[a2k]

The Chinese website that had written an article (which was shared here and quoted by many sources) about KFP3's under-performance during the ow, had predicted a final total of 900m.

 

Looks like it. That will be 135m USD?

[POTUS 2020]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think 45% is done. For openers I would say 2.2x at this point. You should be right about KFP3 at this point.

 

I assume KFP3 would do 70% of of what it will do beyond this week in next 6 days. So I think even 1B could be tough. Especially with so many releases opening ahead and 3 big movies taking most of the screens.

Looks like you're right. Pre-sales and screen count stalled. They usually add a percent or two on the last day. Holiday is different. 

Their distribution is quite odd. Only 6 movies with more than 1%. The rest are 0.1% which means less than 60/200 theater/shows in the entire country of 1.4b people on the biggest day of the year. 

In domestic you could see 20 movies the day star wars came out in all cities and suburbs with 1% or more shows. And most movies increased from Thursday to Friday. Same on xmas day. 5 new released and all movies thrived, not pushed aside. They really know how to kill a movie. Or the people like to see new vs choice.

Art house movies even have a chance there? I read that domestic has 11% in BO that are considered art house many with slow rollouts

Not sure it will be 2.2x at this point. That the norm. Mite be 2x or a bit less with size of the PS.

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2016 by No Prisoners