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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

As I said, its 2nd Friday that matters. I still see $240mn if 2nd Friday bumps.

If its destined to bump 20% on Friday, then a lower tuesday, leading to a lower thursday will lead to a lower friday.  Fridays bump relies on competition and show retention.  A better Tues thru Thurs hold leads to more shows on Fri

46 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Why? I thought all the competition were dead?

They give 50%(2 releases) to 70%(4 releases) of shows to new releases even if they are weak.

They will take about 50% this weekend.  Weak holdovers will lose 80% of shows, Spidey will probably lose 40%

Summer Fri/sat sees typically 20-25%/40-50% bumps instead of 40-50/80-100% if there isnt much show loss

If Thursday is 55m look for 

F  61m

S  92

S  79m

T  232m -65%  but Sunday will be down just 57%

The whole week may be down just 62% 

Low $200s total still looking good

 

 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:
 
 
 
 
 
4
17 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

If its destined to bump 20% on Friday, then a lower tuesday, leading to a lower Thursday will lead to a lower friday.  Fridays bump relies on competition and show retention.  A better Tues thru Thurs holds leads to more shows on Fri.

In that case, every day is important, a low Monday will lead to low Thursday, etc.

 

But 2nd Friday isn't sure to bump. If it does, that helps in longer legs.

Ant-Man 2 and Aquaman Thursday were 61% of their Monday, both had 17% drop on Tuesday, but we know how things turned out afterwards.

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

In that case, every day is important, a low Monday will lead to low Thursday, etc.

 

But 2nd Friday isn't sure to bump. If it does, that helps in longer legs.

Ant-Man 2 and Aquaman Thursday were 61% of their Monday, both had 17% drop on Tuesday, but we know how things turned out afterwards.

Monday drop is based on the demo or summer

Tuesday displays the demand burn or spread of WoM with demand holding steady or increasing.

-20% usually means less than 2x OW even if there is little competition the following weekend, but this SW7 summer

-15% could be 2.2x OW

-10% 2.5-3x, again, depends on future competition.

+10%,  10+x OW

 

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