Fake Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 I think I'll do more like 500m ($80M). I'm expecting a bigger 2nd week gross. Movies in China rarely have sub-50% weekly drops, unless they have exception WOM. 55-60% is the norm. 500m is like the really really best case scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 5, 2014 Author Share Posted May 5, 2014 Remember I said on Sunday even 35m Monday wouldnt be too bad ? Hours ago, over on Tencent I told folks that Sunday was inflated by being the OD and meanwhile a holiday for certain group of students and workers. The two factors combined helped to inflate Spidey's Sunday gross. Sunday being OD alone would not be enough to cause a huge 24m yuan drop (60 to 36m) on 2nd day if it were just a normal working day. However those guys, including the one who posts daily BO numbers on Weibo, aka the guy who originally feeds daily estimates/numbers that is usually re-posted in this thread by Olive, dont believe the part-holiday effect and simply think that 24m yuan is a normal drop after a big OD. It is disappointing that they fail to see the obvious truth. As I put earlier, Sunday was not a pure workday (they aruged it was, lol). It was a bit weaker than a normal Sunday but much stronger than a normal worday. The weekly dailies could be something like 36-34-30-25-25-40-32 = 222m week. So I guess for the whole run: Week 1: 60m Week 2: 220m Week 3: 100m Week 4: 40m Week 5: 10m Total: 430m ($70m) $100m is pretty much impossible now, especially with the average WOM it has. Yeah $100m seems indeed dead. But 500m yuan is still possible. dont think it will drop to 25m low on Thursday and Friday should increase without major openers. If I have to guess: 36+36+31+27+33+53+43=260m 2nd week. Maybe even a bit higher than 260m. See if Monday 36m changes. Week 1: 60m Week 2: 260m Week 3: 120m Week 4: 50m Week 5: 10m 500m total. Columbia China people went out to celebrate on Monday night, so they must be very pleased with Spidey's performance ... despite they once hoped ASM2 could do CA2 numbers. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastwood47 Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 I don't see any of China's numbers figured into the overseas gross on BOM on the international breakdown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 I don't see any of China's numbers figured into the overseas gross on BOM on the international breakdown. Specific #s are always added/updated mid to late week by BOM but the overall total is up to date as of Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Thanks everyone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archerdude Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Remember I said on Sunday even 35m Monday wouldnt be too bad ? Hours ago, over on Tencent I told folks that Sunday was inflated by being the OD and meanwhile a holiday for certain group of students and workers. The two factors combined helped to inflate Spidey's Sunday gross. Sunday being OD alone would not be enough to cause a huge 24m yuan drop (60 to 36m) on 2nd day if it were just a normal working day. However those guys, including the one who posts daily BO numbers on Weibo, aka the guy who originally feeds daily estimates/numbers that is usually re-posted in this thread by Olive, dont believe the part-holiday effect and simply think that 24m yuan is a normal drop after a big OD. It is disappointing that they fail to see the obvious truth. As I put earlier, Sunday was not a pure workday (they aruged it was, lol). It was a bit weaker than a normal Sunday but much stronger than a normal worday. Yeah $100m seems indeed dead. But 500m yuan is still possible. dont think it will drop to 25m low on Thursday and Friday should increase without major openers. If I have to guess: 36+36+31+27+33+53+43=260m 2nd week. Maybe even a bit higher than 260m. See if Monday 36m changes. Week 1: 60m Week 2: 260m Week 3: 120m Week 4: 50m Week 5: 10m 500m total. Columbia China people went out to celebrate on Monday night, so they must be very pleased with Spidey's performance ... despite they once hoped ASM2 could do CA2 numbers. I'm a little more optimistic than Firedeep but probably not quite as positive as Columbia China. With nothing on the 3D, IMAX or foreign film front for another 17 days, I think Spidey will be 500+ close to 600 when it's said and done, this weekend will be key. Otherwise, fire deep is right in saying day 1 was no normal "work day" and that the drop on Monday while drastic, is not tragic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Monday update: TASM2...................35.8M.........................97.1M/$15.5M 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 (edited) Here is today's big news that adventure flick The Ghouls has set release date on Dec 18th, 2015. The 300m RMB production budgeted film, which is supposed to be a tentpole franchise launcher, is produced by Chen Kuo-fu, directed by Wuershan (Painted Skin 2) and backed by Wanda, Enlight, Huayi and Union. They already are expecting at least 2B yuan box office. Edited May 6, 2014 by firedeep 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Tuesday Est: TASM2...................36M.........................133M/$21.3M 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archerdude Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Tuesday Est: TASM2...................36M.........................133M/$21.3M Virtually same number as its first Monday...no bump whatsoever from Tuesday's generally (now just slightly) lower ticket prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Tuesday Est: TASM2...................36M.........................133M/$21.3M this is good yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Remember I said on Sunday even 35m Monday wouldnt be too bad ? Hours ago, over on Tencent I told folks that Sunday was inflated by being the OD and meanwhile a holiday for certain group of students and workers. The two factors combined helped to inflate Spidey's Sunday gross. Sunday being OD alone would not be enough to cause a huge 24m yuan drop (60 to 36m) on 2nd day if it were just a normal working day. However those guys, including the one who posts daily BO numbers on Weibo, aka the guy who originally feeds daily estimates/numbers that is usually re-posted in this thread by Olive, dont believe the part-holiday effect and simply think that 24m yuan is a normal drop after a big OD. It is disappointing that they fail to see the obvious truth. As I put earlier, Sunday was not a pure workday (they aruged it was, lol). It was a bit weaker than a normal Sunday but much stronger than a normal worday. Yeah $100m seems indeed dead. But 500m yuan is still possible. dont think it will drop to 25m low on Thursday and Friday should increase without major openers. If I have to guess: 36+36+31+27+33+53+43=260m 2nd week. Maybe even a bit higher than 260m. See if Monday 36m changes. Week 1: 60m Week 2: 260m Week 3: 120m Week 4: 50m Week 5: 10m 500m total. Columbia China people went out to celebrate on Monday night, so they must be very pleased with Spidey's performance ... despite they once hoped ASM2 could do CA2 numbers. It's following the predictions of firedeep 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 (edited) Projections for the rest of week: 133M Wed 33M Thur 31M Fri 35M Sat 60M Sun 48M No powerful openings this weekend, I expect a bigger bump on Saturday. 330-340M 8-day opening, TASM1 made 315M total. Edited May 6, 2014 by Olive Maximoff 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archerdude Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Projections for the rest of week: 133M Wed 33M Thur 31M Fri 35M Sat 60M Sun 48M No powerful openings this weekend, I expect a bigger bump on Saturday. 330-340M 8-day opening, TASM1 made 315M total. And Cap 1 did 90 something total! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godzilla Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 (edited) Projections for the rest of week: 133M Wed 33M Thur 31M Fri 35M Sat 60M Sun 48M No powerful openings this weekend, I expect a bigger bump on Saturday. 330-340M 8-day opening, TASM1 made 315M total. It'll make $100M, with a 330-340m yuan 2nd week gross. Edited May 6, 2014 by Godzilla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 TASM2 didn't drop today. So that's good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Tuesday update: TASM2 dropped a bit from estimates, 33.6M Tuesday,131M total local movies Classmate 10M tues, 344M total, should clear 400M when its finished with only 20M yuan budget! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 So it dropped and were back to horrible :PBye bye 100 mill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Tuesday update: TASM2 dropped a bit from estimates, 33.6M Tuesday,131M total Ouch! Even $80m looks in trouble. By Thursday, it will be at just over 185m. Friday jump would be the key. When is the next major movie going to release? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Funny how 400.000$ can make such a difference in predicting TASM2's total Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
