China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Fake]

Slowing down now..... $400m getting progressively difficult. Still ..... $360m is more than a decent total.

[TalismanRing]

Olive made a post about it. firedeep is predicting 2B Yuan which would be over 320M. To be honest I would be happy with 200M, anything over that amount is just icing on the cake. 

 

Considering that the projections were for FF7 days before it opened was around $180-210m I'm not sure close projections 3 weeks away is possible for a film that size in this surprising rapidly expanding market..

[POTUS 2020]

		TF4								FF7
Day	Yuan	% +/-	% BO -OW	Total	$ Tot		Yuan	% +/-	TF4 vs FF7	Total	$ Tot	% Cume	TF4 Mltplr	DayxM +OW	$Proj
Fri	195			195	32
Sat	223	14.4%		418	69		51	- MN
Sun	213	-4.6%		631	103		347		63.1%	398	64	-37.9%
Mon	123	-42.1%	9.07	754	124		184	-47.0%	49.5%	582	94	-24.0%	11.03	2,421	390
Tues	112	-8.9%	8.25	866	142		167	-9.2%	48.8%	749	121	-14.9%	12.12	2,416	389
Wed	95	-15.7%	6.97	961	157		137	-18.0%	44.8%	886	143	-9.3%	14.35	2,358	380
Thur	84	-11.0%	6.21	1045	171		114	-16.8%	35.4%	1000	161	-5.8%	16.10	2,228	359
Fri	87	3.4%	6.42	1132	186		142	24.6%	63.0%	1142	184	-0.7%	15.58	2,604	419
Sat	130	48.8%	9.55	1262	207		225	58.5%	73.6%	1367	220	6.6%	10.47	2,748	443
Sun	118	-9.0%	8.69	1379	226		184	-18.2%	56.1%	1551	250	10.6%	11.51	2,509	404
Mon	54	-58.33%	4.02	1433	235		72	-60.9%	33.3%	1623	262	11.4%	24.85	2,181	351
Tue	53	-1.85%	3.95	1486	244		63	-12.5%	18.9%	1686	272	11.6%	25.32	1,987	320
Wed	43	-18.87%	3.20	1529	251
Thu	39	-9.30%	2.91	1568	257
Fri	42	7.69%	3.13	1610	264
Sat	62	47.62%	4.62	1672	274
Sun	58	-6.45%	4.32	1730	284
														AvePro	384
		Str8 Up				TF4			1st	Week	FF7			2nd	Week
TF/FF	Day	TF4	FF7	%Cume		Day	Yuan	% Ch	Total	$ Tot	Yuan	% Ch	vs TF4	Total	$ Tot
F/Su	1	195	398	104.3%		Fri	195		195	32	142		-27.2%	142	23
S/M	2	223	184	39.4%		Sat	223	14.4%	418	69	225	58.5%	0.9%	367	59
S/T	3	213	167	18.8%		Sun	213	-4.6%	631	103	184	-18.2%	-13.5%	551	89
M/W	4	123	137	17.5%		Mon	123	-42.1%	754	124	72	-60.9%	-41.5%	623	100
T/Th	5	112	114	15.5%		Tue	112	-8.9%	866	142	63	-12.5%	-43.9%	686	111
W/F	6	95	142	18.9%		Wed	95	-15.7%	961	157
Th/S	7	84	225	30.8%		Thu	84	-11.0%	1045	171
F/Su	8	87	184	37.0%
S/M	9	130	72	28.7%		TF4			Fri	to	Thu		FF7
S/T	10	118	63	22.2%			Yuan	$$$	+/-	Yuan	$$$	+/-	TF v FF
M/W	11					Wk1	1045	171		1000	161		-4.3%
T/Th	12					Wk2	524	86	-49.9%	791	128	-20.9%	51.1%	Partial	Proj
	Total	1379	1686	22.2%		Wk3	256	42	-51.1%	400	65	-49.4%	56.3%	Proj w	Ap 30
	Tot $	226	272	20.3%		Wk4	81	13	-68.4%	300	48	-25.0%	270.4%	Proj w	M1,2.3
Proj$	30	319	384	20.3%		Wk5	42	7	-48.1%	75	12	-75.0%	78.6%
						Tot	1947.4	319		2566	414		31.8%

Numbers keep getting lower than I thought after that amazing Saturday number. Fingers crossed for a 40m + weekend. The more I look the May numbers, the more I think we're in for a surprise.

[Emirazza]

Slowing down now..... $400m getting progressively difficult. Still ..... $360m is more than a decent total.

I need this to drop hard as possible. 

[LumiaAir]

I hope Furious 7 stops at $400.000001M , that would be amazing

Not as much as you might think,there should be $380 m .

[tupek]

I need this to drop hard as possible.

Calm down dude, you ain't goin' to earn a single buck from the goldmine that will be AoU anyways

[Lordmandeep]

Lol chill TA2 is like coming for 3 more weeks dude. 

[seduh]

$400 is quite difficult, but not imposible at all. I think $375 is almost a lock (in china nothing is  a lock as movie can fall +80%)

[vc2002]

Most box office observers here are predicting $250-300M.

 

I think like what F7 did to our DOM predictions, it's doing the same to our expectations on China boxoffice. $250-300m seems too high for TA2. The feeling of nostalgia (Is that a proper translation of "情怀"?) is among the most efficient marketing tools in China, and that's why this F7 mega breakout happened. It's more efficient in China than in any other countries which is why Titanic re-release did monstrous business in China while only having average performance in the rest of the world.

 

There's no doubt that TA2 will be huge, but does it have what it takes challenge $300m? TF4 is obvious the closest case. We've seen that it took 3 record-breaking predecessors, Chinese actors involvement, scenes shooting in China to break that $300m mark. I don't see how TA2 got the same quality to even come close.

 

Normal blockbuster level in China is $100-150m at this moment. TA2 should be around $200m IMO.

Edited April 22, 2015 by vc2002

[Olive]

San Andreas -June 2nd

[Pypa94]

China wants to cut money from AOU or what? F7 has 3-4 weeks with less competition and AOU has already 2 potentially big movies from Hollywood and I guess couple of local movies too.

[druv10]

San Andreas -June 2nd

 

 

Lol, SARFT trying to sabotage TA2. By pushing TA2 to May 12th, they helped FF7 have clear path to record breaking total and now with TA2... ridiculous. 

 

Hopefully, it can still hit 250M. 

[Olive]

Wednesday(4/21/2015) estimates

#/Title: Daily(yuan)~Total(yuan)~Total($)

1.Furious 7: 51M~1741M~$281M  #2 all time grosser

2.Ever Since We Love: 10M~105M~$16.9M

3.Wolf Warriors: 5.4M~506M~$81.7M

4.Mortdecai: 1.8M~19M~$3.1M

5.The Queens:0.7M~14.2M~$2.3M

 

 

 (Current exchange rate $=6.195 Yuan). 

[Neo]

Lol, SARFT trying to sabotage TA2. By pushing TA2 to May 12th, they helped FF7 have clear path to record breaking total and now with TA2... ridiculous. 

 

Hopefully, it can still hit 250M. 

Why do they sabotage a movie? What benefit is there?

[druv10]

Why do they sabotage a movie? What benefit is there?

 

They want local movies to thrive as such they've protection months where only local movies play. With FF7 blowing up, they definitely don't want TA2 do the same so it makes sense from their point of view. 

[POTUS 2020]

Why do they sabotage a movie? What benefit is there?

Chinese are protectionists against imports, They limit,  tax or outright prohibit many imports to ensure their own products thrive. movies are a fine example of their practices

[Neo]

They want local movies to thrive as such they've protection months where only local movies play. With FF7 blowing up, they definitely don't want TA2 do the same so it makes sense from their point of view. 

But they do make a % of what it makes?

[druv10]

But they do make a % of what it makes?

 

Firedeep or Olive can better explain that.

[POTUS 2020]

But they do make a % of what it makes?

the theaters do but 100% of the money stays in China when its a Chinese film and provides thousands of jobs. Reduce foreign choices that may be more desired and a moviegoer will have no choice but opt for something local.

 

If the 4b  in BO was the amount Chinese were able or willing to spend last year and if all OS releases were released in China and not restricted to 30 days, would it have been approx. 50/50 for local and imports? Doubt it.

[Neo]

the theaters do but 100% of the money stays in China when its a Chinese film and provides thousands of jobs. Reduce foreign choices that may be more desired and a moviegoer will have no choice but opt for something local.

 

If the 4b  in BO was the amount Chinese were able or willing to spend last year and if all OS releases were released in China and not restricted to 30 days, would it have been approx. 50/50 for local and imports? Doubt it.

A movie like F7 that will do 300M+ isn't it better to maximize OW #'s so more can stay in China. I don't think a local film would do better than say AOU OW. To me it hurts China seeing they could make more, no?