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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

Posted
Posted

why is MI5 not being in 3d a major issue. MI4 was not in 3d and it was one of the biggest movies back then. Market has expanded big time and so I dont see anything wrong with the expectations. Also the movie has had great reception and is kind of movies china should love.

Because China LOVES 3D. If MI4 did not have 3D (I thought it did in China), maybe the reason MI5 is not exploding is for some reason people have said here: the film seems (I have not seen it) to have less action or more plot than MI4. I do not know if that is true, but it could be a reason: not pure action, but a more complex film.

 

Anyway, it seems to be headed to $160-170m, what means a 50% increase and nearly the same than US gross. I guess that is not bad.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)

Nah. I have seen MI5 twice. Its definitely no less action packed than MI4. I think its more though there is no single action scene that registered as well as the Burj khalifa scene in MI4. Plot wise all these movies are straight forward. Only MI1 had kind of complex plot. All the rest are easy to follow. Except MI2 rest have been executed very well as well.

 

Today both the movies are headed towards monster drops. Not a good sign for healthy legs.

Edited by keysersoze123
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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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But aren't these facts? It is the highest OD for an animation - that's impressive in its own merit.

 

 

Yes, but some of the comparison's are off base. I mean Monkey King: Hero Is Back had almost no expectations and opened significantly low for how much it ended up making thanks to strong word of mouth. Just be wary of these articles as they're often written by people who don't really follow the industry closely.

 

no matter the actual articles... Deadline also 'steels' often infos without naming the source article / interview or only adding the source by name insted via link as it is usus & expected in the industry, too often only after they get called on that = afterwards

And they are too often way off or only rehashing already since hours or longer exisitng knowledge in a new outfit to appear as 'News'.

They are the last of all sources I try (not) to use

 

Btw MinaTakla, do not forget: you have to add a link if you quote an article here, and are not allowed full quotes....., see forum rules,

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Giesi Box Office Gold

Giesi

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There is someone who predicted $300m for Star Wars?? That is huge and illogical, IMHO  :blink:

 

Anyway, you can not completely discard that some movie can hit again, like F7, AoU, Monster Hunt or Jurassic World have already done. I am not saying that KFP3, SW7, IA5, IO... all of them will make tons of money, but maybe 1 or 2 of them will. You can not rule out it. Or maybe none of them will smash, but 1 or 2 local films are able to. BO never is completely predictable as we have already seen.

 

MI5 does not have 3D, Minions has been released with good pirate copies, ... you can not just low every prediction just because 2 presumed huge successes have not hit as hard as we thought.

 

The reality say that last year, US had 33 films over $100m and China 11 films over 600 million Yuan (that amount is a bit lower than $100m, but I use those figures to not depend on exchange rates). This year, the gap for those figures has narrowed, for the moment, to 19-12. China keeps increasing the number of hits, and, in some moment, another film will hit again, grossing $300 or $400m. And then, for sure, we will go crazy with predictions again. It is a matter of keeping the perspective.

What would a more proper prediction for Star Wars run in China?
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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

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What would a more proper prediction for Star Wars run in China?

I will compare with Harry Potter and LOTR, which were the franchises that were competing with Star Wars during last trilogy:

 

Phantom Menace was the biggest Hollywood release in 1999 ($3.9m)

Attack of the Clones ($5.4m) was behind Harry Potter 1 ($7.1m) and Fellowship of the Ring ($6.4m) in 2002, but over Spider-man ($5.2m)

Revenge of the Sith ($9.3m) was behind Harry Potter 4 ($11.7m) in 2005. Previous year, ROTK already did $10m.

 

If this follow the same pattern and we take into account that:

 

* Last Harry Potter did about $65m in 2011 (just for reference, the same year that KFP2 did $100m, for which sequel we are talking about $250-300m). So we could talk about $180-$200m for a today HP film.

* This year, Hobbit 3 has done $125m. Hobbit films have been in a lower level than LOTR everywhere, about a 40% drop in attendance. So LOTR films could have done today about $180m-$200m, same figures than Harry Potter.

* Last Spider-man film did a bit less than $100m last year, and Attack of the Clones already beat SM1, a quite better film than TASM2.

 

If SW7 gets a normal release date, the logic tells me that a more accurate prediction should be $150-175m. Probably the 1999-2005 figures are not the best references because the market has changed dramatically, but we do not have another way to compare.

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MinaTakla Box Office Gold

MinaTakla

Posted
Posted (edited)

I will compare with Harry Potter and LOTR, which were the franchises that were competing with Star Wars during last trilogy:

 

Phantom Menace was the biggest Hollywood release in 1999 ($3.9m)

Attack of the Clones ($5.4m) was behind Harry Potter 1 ($7.1m) and Fellowship of the Ring ($6.4m) in 2002, but over Spider-man ($5.2m)

Revenge of the Sith ($9.3m) was behind Harry Potter 4 ($11.7m) in 2005. Previous year, ROTK already did $10m.

 

If this follow the same pattern and we take into account that:

 

* Last Harry Potter did about $65m in 2011 (just for reference, the same year that KFP2 did $100m, for which sequel we are talking about $250-300m). So we could talk about $180-$200m for a today HP film.

* This year, Hobbit 3 has done $125m. Hobbit films have been in a lower level than LOTR everywhere, about a 40% drop in attendance. So LOTR films could have done today about $180m-$200m, same figures than Harry Potter.

* Last Spider-man film did a bit less than $100m last year, and Attack of the Clones already beat SM1, a quite better film than TASM2.

 

If SW7 gets a normal release date, the logic tells me that a more accurate prediction should be $150-175m. Probably the 1999-2005 figures are not the best references because the market has changed dramatically, but we do not have another way to compare.

Agree with this.

170m for Star Wars

and 288m for KFP3 (3 x times its 2011 number as a best case)

Edited by MinaTakla
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