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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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bangbingchan Sleeper Hit

bangbingchan

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, POTUS said:

W3 dropped 15% and will do 2.1x OW.

At 12%,  2.2x OW is very possible. Kong will not be huge nor direct competition, plus a holiday boost in the third weekend.

Logan doesn't  have much competition from new release on 2nd and 3rd week.March.10 is empty.March 17 only has BtaB.

BtaB will face Hongkong on 2nd weekend.3 local films on 3rd week.showtimes will be problems.Local films won't be Big.But wide local releases will occupy many screens.imax screen will taken by Kong this weekend.The situation BatB Face is much similar to Fantastic beast.FB daily drop is even better.FB cross 590M before service fees.BtaB might around 600M after services.

Edited by bangbingchan
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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, bangbingchan said:

Logan doesn't  have much competition from new release on 2nd and 3rd week.March.10 is empty.March 17 only has BtaB.

BtaB will face Hongkong on 2nd weekend.3 local films on 3rd week.showtimes will be problems.Local films won't be Big.But wide local releases will occupy many screens.imax screen will taken by Kong this weekend.The situation BatB Face is much similar to Fantastic beast.FB daily drop is even better.FB cross 590M before service fees.BtaB might around 600M after services.

It didn't matter there was little competition. It dropped 15% daily T-Th which made it lose more shows to the weak openers and the 66% 2nd weekend drop occurred.  When a new release drops 12% it will hold more shows than the older releases. This weekend Kong and the other release will take 50%. BatB will likely keep 55% while others lose more. And the festival will give it a bump bigger than than the loss it takes from from the local releases which aren't very big in PS right now. If it does -12% again today I say 700m is a lock. 

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bangbingchan Sleeper Hit

bangbingchan

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, POTUS said:

It didn't matter there was little competition. It dropped 15% daily T-Th which made it lose more shows to the weak openers and the 66% 2nd weekend drop occurred.  When a new release drops 12% it will hold more shows than the older releases. This weekend Kong and the other release will take 50%. BatB will likely keep 55% while others lose more. And the festival will give it a bump bigger than than the loss it takes from from the local releases which aren't very big in PS right now. If it does -12% again today I say 700m is a lock. 

That's different from what You said for Fantastic beast Last year.FB daily drop is even better，But fall short of 600M，for lacking screens.Local films take screens not depending on presale.They just occupy the screens on first week

Edited by bangbingchan
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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, bangbingchan said:

That's different from what You said for Fantastic beast Last year.FB daily drop is even better，But fall short of 600M，for lacking screens.Local films take screens not depending on presale.They just occupy the screens on first week

If a film holds well it will hold a better percentage than what's being taken by the new releases normally.  

FB did 2.1x OW but 5 new releases took 69% of screens it's second week. That was an oversight on my part. That  didn't leave room for it hold a much larger share of the overall drop.  It lost 67%. 

 

The releases will take 50% this friday. I think BatB will lose 45%.  The other film's market share % are under their show % and will lose 55-85% of their shows.

 

Next friday I see just 3 releases so far with small PS. I doubt they take more than 50% of shows. I think BatB And Kong will hold well with holiday help. We have seen-25 to -40% holds on these holidays competing with new films totaling combined 100m  for OD.

 

So BatB had a larger OW. It will have at least 20% of shows this weekend, FB had 10%. Next week BatB will have 8-10% of shows. FB had 5%.

 

Kong has an 8.9 rating after previews. That might boost OD. PS on track to go up more than 50% today.

 

Edited by POTUS
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TheDarkKnightOfSteel Box Office Gold

TheDarkKnightOfSteel

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, POTUS said:

It didn't matter there was little competition. It dropped 15% daily T-Th which made it lose more shows to the weak openers and the 66% 2nd weekend drop occurred.  When a new release drops 12% it will hold more shows than the older releases. This weekend Kong and the other release will take 50%. BatB will likely keep 55% while others lose more. And the festival will give it a bump bigger than than the loss it takes from from the local releases which aren't very big in PS right now. If it does -12% again today I say 700m is a lock. 

700m in China is absolutely fantastic for a musical.I though it would do something like 80M $

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Gavin Feng Blockbuster

Gavin Feng

Posted
Posted

WED estimates
 
before service charges
Beauty & Beast  -  23.1m / 369.5m(-14.5%, worse than TJB 11%)
A Dog’s Purpose  -  7.3m / 502.8m
Logan  -  4.3m / 662.8m
Resident Evil 6  -  2.3m / 1,033m
 
after service charges

Beauty & Beast  -  24.6m / 396.8m
A Dog’s Purpose  -  7.95m / 548.5m
Logan  -  4.65m / 713.2m
Resident Evil 6  -  2.46m / 1,109m

 

 

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, juni78ukr said:

What about Russian movie Guardians? It also opens next week. Have you seen any advertising? How much screens it will get?

With 3 local movies and 2 hollywood movies , I doubt it will get more than 5% of showtimes.

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