China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[fmpro]

12 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

PS for tomorrow at 25.6. 6x multi gets it to 150-155 or about 44-45% increase. Right as Potus predicted

 

If it reaches a 45% increase tomorrow then we have great WOM. I still see 35-40%

[peludo]

7 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

it's good but nothing really special. Guess Thor is not as popular here as Captain America

Captain America needed another 11 characters to reach 1.2b Yuan

 

To make something special in SH genre is, for the moment, reserved for Avengers films (Ultron and Civil War).

 

$100m means to double what Thor 2 did. I see it a quite good result. Thor enters into the average SH club in China, in the same league than Spider-man, Guardians, Wonder Woman or Batman (If I am not wrong, and excepting Avengers films, every SH film in last 3 years has landed into 600-800m range).

 

And unless something strange happens, we will not see any other SH film making over 1 billion Yuan until Infinity War. For the moment, it seems to be a very predictable genre in China.

[Barnack]

26 minutes ago, peludo said:

Captain America needed another 11 characters to reach 1.2b Yuan

 

Winter soldier did a lot in 2014 (115m, #7 of the year), Thor 3 making 100m would be out of the top 20 (maybe top 25)

Edited November 3, 2017 by Barnack

[Deja23]

Does Maoyan update their Total BO Forecast on a daily basis? And how accurate are they?

 

Also, anyone know when Justice League presales start?

[bruchav]

29 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Winter soldier did a lot in 2014 (115m, #7 of the year), Thor 3 making 100m would be out of the top 20 (maybe top 25)

2014 was a weak year at the box office, did not have many big films, Guardians of the galaxy was the 3 largest film worldwide in 2014 with $773m, in 2017 would not even be in the top 8, and with the releases of Justice League, Star Wars 8 and Thor 3, these numbers would not be enough to enter in the top 10 worldwide.

[peludo]

41 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Winter soldier did a lot in 2014 (115m, #7 of the year), Thor 3 making 100m would be out of the top 20 (maybe top 25)

Sure, but in the same way Guardians of the Galaxy already did 600m Yuan the same year than Winter Soldier, with great WOM. So one could have thought that people in China would be back to see the sequel. But the sequel has barely increased a 10% with 3 years of expansion of the market.

 

Thor is jumping a 100% after 4 years because it comes from a lower amount and it is converging to the usual SH range. I do not know if a solo Captain America sequel could have jumped in a similar proportion, but looking at recent results, it seems that the genre has reached its limit in China, or at least, it seems to be stagnant, no matters the character. And just Avengers have shown to be able to break that $100-120m barrier. I would bet that Justice League will make 600-700m Yuan, similarly to BvS.

 

And said this, I do not see any solo SH film ranking #7 of the year right now. It would need more than 1.5b Yuan, more than the biggest SH film ever (Ultron). Maybe the reasoning is that the genre is not so important in China as it used to be 3 or 4 years ago.

Edited November 4, 2017 by peludo

[Barnack]

I think you could be right, looking at Guardian 1 vs 2, if Winter Soldier would have released today would have probably not made much more than in 2014 would also be out of the annual top 15.

 

Spiderman doing only 116 show (when spider-man 3 was in the top 5 in 2007) that it could have some plateau installed and that local productions became a bigger competition over time.

[fmpro]

68,66 mill at 3pm

[fmpro]

77,71 mill at 4pm

[fmpro]

82,14 mill at 4,30pm

 

currently running 9 mill pr hour. Should do more in a couple of hours. Looks like 145-150 maybe.

Standart jump. Nothing unusual going on here. Should be able to reach 100 mill $ total with nothing major next friday(eventhough there are 5-6 new releases)

[druv10]

Up to 117M, 14M for the last hr. If it can maintain that for couple of hrs then 160M+.

[ZeeSoh]

124.2 at 8 pm. 

 

Should finish between 140-150 for a solid 40% increase from yesterday

 

Update - 141.5m at 10pm. Might make a couple million more by night

Edited November 4, 2017 by ZeeSoh

[Olive]

+38% from true Friday(105.6M), GOTG2 +38% , SMH +37%

will beat Thor 2 lifetime (342M) even without service fees, if excluding fees, under 26% Sunday drop needed.

[ZeeSoh]

Looks like will finish with 145 by the end of tonight. Slightly higher jump than Geostorm last Saturday which jumped 35.4% 

 

Geostorm dropped 20% on Sunday. If this falls the same then it will get to 116 on Sunday for an OW of about 375 ($56.5)

[POTUS 2020]

16 hours ago, Deja23 said:

Does Maoyan update their Total BO Forecast on a daily basis? And how accurate are they?

 

Also, anyone know when Justice League presales start?

any day now

[fmpro]

54,3 at 3pm

 

Looks like a 27-30% sunday drop

 

Edited November 5, 2017 by fmpro

[ZeeSoh]

100m at 9pm. May get to 103-105 in the end for about 27-28% drop from yesterday. OW around 54-55 million which is about the same as Thor 2 made in its entire run

Edited November 5, 2017 by ZeeSoh

[Gavin Feng]

SUN
after service fees
Thor: Ragnarok  -  103.5m / 360.9m
Eternal Wave  -  13.8m / 49.5m
Geostorm  -  17.4m / 381.8m
Never Say Die  -  6.92m / 2,175m
Kingsman 2  -  5.15m / 463.5m
BR2049  -  1.73m / 72.9m

[a2k]

$54.5 ow for Thor3

1.8-2.0x gives $98-109 total

[keysersoze123]

Very good OW. It should hit 100m with ok hold this weekend.