China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[XXR vs XXR]

Question for the experts.

 

Is it currently possible that a US film could ever make the kind of money that TWE is going to make in China? Could a film like Avatar 2 (if it had a 9.5 on Maoyan, lets say) make $750m in China? Or is it simply impossible because of the dynamic between how US films are handled and distributed in China vs local films?

[Xiaoshu]

TWE 185M by 2p.m

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Xiaoshu said:

TWE 185M by 2p.m

232m at 4p.m. Maybe 350m today?

[Stewart]

4 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Question for the experts.

 

Is it currently possible that a US film could ever make the kind of money that TWE is going to make in China? Could a film like Avatar 2 (if it had a 9.5 on Maoyan, lets say) make $750m in China? Or is it simply impossible because of the dynamic between how US films are handled and distributed in China vs local films?

Yes. But I think only the Avatar sequels have a realistic chance based on the somewhat limit of Superheroes here and the pure dominance Avatar had in 2010.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Question for the experts.

 

Is it currently possible that a US film could ever make the kind of money that TWE is going to make in China? Could a film like Avatar 2 (if it had a 9.5 on Maoyan, lets say) make $750m in China? Or is it simply impossible because of the dynamic between how US films are handled and distributed in China vs local films?

If I am not wrong, American films dominated China boxoffice, it is just since 2016 that a non-American film is biggest grosser there. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Question for the experts.

 

Is it currently possible that a US film could ever make the kind of money that TWE is going to make in China? Could a film like Avatar 2 (if it had a 9.5 on Maoyan, lets say) make $750m in China? Or is it simply impossible because of the dynamic between how US films are handled and distributed in China vs local films?

If I am not wrong, American films dominated China boxoffice, it is just since 2016 that a non-American film is biggest grosser there. 

[charlie Jatinder]

17 hours ago, POTUS said:

Lets see how it compares to RSA last year to project out a total

CNY

Day    RSA         TWE     Over RSA

1         130m      187       +44%

2         148         258       +74%

3         188         300       +60%

4         224

5         246

6         271

7         241

8         212

Final 3565m    

TWE dailies will have to stay 60% ahead of RSA to get there. I think tomorrow will be 300m+ with 75m PS already.

It will have to get over 400m on day 5 and 6 to maintain a 60%+ pace

 

¥245mn already at 16:45 CST, Thursday is going for ¥365-375mn approx, double of RSA day 3.

Edited February 7, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[a2k]

Looking at the data above AWE is heading for a $50-55 Thu and $100-125 opening day. What's the expected multiplier off the OD in this period for such a mega-opener?

Edited February 7, 2019 by a2k

[peludo]

22 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

If I am not wrong, American films dominated China boxoffice, it is just since 2016 that a non-American film is biggest grosser there. 

Since 2015 with Monster Hunt.

 

I do have not data about evolution of market share between local films and US film in Chinese market, but it seems obvious that China is being able to produce big blockbusters that can compete or even beat HLW films. The top 4 in 2018 were all local films. A beast like Infinity War just could rank #5.

 

By the end of 2014, in the top 10 there were 5 Chinese films and 5 US films, being the top 3 entirely American: TF4, Avatar and Titanic (adding up 1998 and 2012 grosses). When 2015 finished the relation was even 4 for China vs 6 for USA.

 

But by the end of this holiday period, we could only see 1 US film in top 10 (FF8). Unless something drastically changes (maybe a more open market, with a chance to release more foreign films, for example), I do not see how US can recover the predominant position. In fact, I think the gap could even go bigger. Right now, and IMHO, just rarities like Avatar sequels have the potential to reach top positions.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

Looking at the data above AWE is heading for a $50-55 opening day. What's the expected multiplier off the OD in this period for such a mega-opener?

You mean Friday right. Friday will be bigger I think, I mean Thursday itself will be $55mn Approx.

There are 6k more shows tomorrow, shall do $60mn approx. Say another $70mn om Saturday and $55-60mn Sunday.

 

FSS $185-190mn.

 

6 days Weekend $308-313mn.

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

You mean Friday right. Friday will be bigger I think, I mean Thursday itself will be $55mn Approx.

There are 6k more shows tomorrow, shall do $60mn approx. Say another $70mn om Saturday and $55-60mn Sunday.

 

FSS $185-190mn.

 

6 days Weekend $308-313mn.

 

for a total of $600 (4.5B) I guess?

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, a2k said:

for a total of $600 (4.5B) I guess?

Yeah should be but then Dying to Survive looked like will top Wolf Warrior 2 during 1st week. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Day 3 seems like ¥350-360mn or $52-53.5mn.

 

3 days cume around ¥808-818mn or $121mn.

[charlie Jatinder]

Day 3 seems like ¥350-360mn or $52-53.5mn.

 

3 days cume around ¥808-818mn or $121mn.

[POTUS 2020]

On 2/6/2019 at 4:24 PM, POTUS said:

Lets see how it compares to RSA last year to project out a total

CNY

Day    RSA         TWE     Over RSA

1         130m      187       +44%

2         148         257       +74%

3         188         340       +80%

4         224         375       +67%   est

5         246

6         271

7         241

8         212

Final 3565m    

TWE dailies will have to stay 60% ahead of RSA to get to WW2. I think tomorrow will be 300m+ with 75m PS already.

It will have to get over 400m on day 5 and 6 to maintain a 60%+ pace

 

 

On 2/6/2019 at 4:05 PM, peludo said:

Maoyan already predicts 5.099b for TWE. Could beating WW2 (5.682b) be in play? 

I updated the daily above.  Its tracking WW2 total off of RSA's run, but will it run out of movie goers later in the run?

No new releases next weekend, it should hold well,  RSA held -30%.  We'll have to wait and see

Edited February 7, 2019 by POTUS

[fmpro]

3 hours ago, a2k said:

for a total of $600 (4.5B) I guess?

More than that. 4,5B yuan is 667 mill $ btw.

Estimated goal now is 750-800 mill $ IMO

[peludo]

17 minutes ago, fmpro said:

More than that. 4,5B yuan is 667 mill $ btw.

Estimated goal now is 750-800 mill $ IMO

Maoyan says now something similar to you: 5.334b Yuan ($791m)

[seduh]

Anyone have the numbers for day 3 of CNY? thanks

[Wotad]

12 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Question for the experts.

 

Is it currently possible that a US film could ever make the kind of money that TWE is going to make in China? Could a film like Avatar 2 (if it had a 9.5 on Maoyan, lets say) make $750m in China? Or is it simply impossible because of the dynamic between how US films are handled and distributed in China vs local films?

I think Avatar 2 has a chance but it all depend's on release date and if China block it like they did avatar.. im pretty sure avatar was pulled from Cinema's by the government im not sure if they changed their stance since then. 

Edited February 7, 2019 by Wotad

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

Maoyan says now something similar to you: 5.334b Yuan ($791m)

Could go up or down a bit. But it should go in that area