China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[juni78ukr]

I would rather say too many mediocre films at the same time.

[juni78ukr]

I would rather say too many mediocre films at the same time.

[Stewart]

20 minutes ago, peludo said:

Maoyan already predicts 5.099b for TWE. Could be beating WW2 (5.682b) in play? 

Genuinely I've started thinking about this. 

 

Comparing with Operation Red Sea last year. Both have almost identical reviews on Maoyan (even down to percentage for each band). The first week of ORS went like this:

 

F - 123.8m

S - 141.3m

S - 177.4m

M - 211.9m

T - 231.6m

W - 254.1m

T - 225.2m

Total: 1365.3m

 

So it took until day 6 to reach peak. Also not that on its first 4 days it had less than 100k showings, which TWE already achieved on day 2.

 

However, whilst ORS increased 14% on day 2, TWE went from 175.6m to 242.7m, increasing 38%. 

 

I think this means it'll peak earlier in its run, however since the weekend hasn't happened yet (not sure if this has much affect due to holidays), I see this increasing again tomorrow, then staying largely flat Friday through Sunday, potentially having 1500-1600m on Sunday (maybe more). Perhaps about 1750m through Monday minimum. Using ORS multiplier from first week we get 4680m minimum.

 

I'd say it's too early to say if this will beat WW2, but the fact Maoyan is predicting over 5B suggests they're confident in it.

 

EDIT: I got my numbers from Maoyan, but they seem to be different to what @POTUS has 

Edited February 6, 2019 by feasby007

[POTUS 2020]

4 minutes ago, peludo said:

Maoyan already predicts 5.099b for TWE. Could be beating WW2 (5.682b) in play? 

Lets see how it compares to RSA last year to project out a total

CNY

Day    RSA         TWE     Over RSA

1         130m      187       +44%

2         148         258       +74%

3         188         300       +60%

4         224

5         246

6         271

7         241

8         212

Final 3565m    

TWE dailies will have to stay 60% ahead of RSA to get there. I think tomorrow will be 300m+ with 75m PS already.

It will have to get over 400m on day 5 and 6 to maintain a 60%+ pace

 

[POTUS 2020]

8 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Genuinely I've started thinking about this. 

 

Comparing with Operation Red Sea last year. Both have almost identical reviews on Maoyan (even down to percentage for each band). The first week of ORS went like this:

 

F - 123.8m

S - 141.3m

S - 177.4m

M - 211.9m

T - 231.6m

W - 254.1m

T - 225.2m

Total: 1365.3m

 

So it took until day 6 to reach peak. Also not that on its first 4 days it had less than 100k showings, which TWE already achieved on day 2.

 

However, whilst ORS increased 14% on day 2, TWE went from 175.6m to 242.7m, increasing 38%. 

 

I think this means it'll peak earlier in its run, however since the weekend hasn't happened yet (not sure if this has much affect due to holidays), I see this increasing again tomorrow, then staying largely flat Friday through Sunday, potentially having 1500-1600m on Sunday (maybe more). Perhaps about 1750m through Monday minimum. Using ORS multiplier from first week we get 4680m minimum.

 

I'd say it's too early to say if this will beat WW2, but the fact Maoyan is predicting over 5B suggests they're confident in it.

 

EDIT: I got my numbers from Maoyan, but they seem to be different to what @POTUS has 

Thats with out fees.  Column to the far right is with fees

 

Edited February 6, 2019 by POTUS

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, POTUS said:

Thats with out fees.  Column to the far right is with fees

Ah yes I see it now! 

 

I normally use the large screen thing searching by data than looking at a specific film's history. Even after two years here I'm still learning 

[NCsoft]

15 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I'd say it's too early to say if this will beat WW2, but the fact Maoyan is predicting over 5B suggests they're confident in it.

 

EDIT: I got my numbers from Maoyan, but they seem to be different to what @POTUS has 

Hard to say, they do tend to over-react sometimes, I think they overpredicted both HMB, and Dying to Survive last year, after a few days. 

[Stewart]

Just now, NCsoft said:

Hard to say, they do tend to over-react sometimes, I think they overpredicted both HMB, and Dying to Survive last year, after a few days. 

I seem to recall in general they even over predict or under predict, rarely hitting the mark correctly. 

 

Let's just hope it's an underreaction 🤞

[KP1025]

The Wandering Earth has a decent chance of being the highest grossing film in a single territory for 2019.  I believe only Lion King and Avengers: Endgame have a shot of crossing $700 million domestically (SW9 has an outside shot too). 

[NCsoft]

3 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I seem to recall in general they even over predict or under predict, rarely hitting the mark correctly. 

 

Let's just hope it's an underreaction 🤞

Oh yeah, they overpredict and underpredict all the time when it's all volatile for the first few days. I just thought this might be a case similar to DTS, which means they thought since WOM is so great, why not be more ambitious in predictions!

It turns out either there is a ceiling for that specific type of film, or WOM is spreading faster than they expected. 

[NCsoft]

13 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

The Wandering Earth has a decent chance of being the highest grossing film in a single territory for 2019.  I believe only Lion King and Avengers: Endgame have a shot of crossing $700 million domestically (SW9 has an outside shot too). 

Can't wait to see TWE standing on top of that Global 2019 chart 😊 At least for a few weeks, maybe?

[seduh]

Anyone has the numbers for day 2 of CNY for every movie. Thanks

[peludo]

3 minutes ago, seduh said:

Anyone has the numbers for day 2 of CNY for every movie. Thanks

1. Crazy Alien: 283m Yuan ($42.0m)

2. The Wandering Earth: 261m ($38,7m)

3. Pegasus: 188m ($27.9m)

4. The New King of Comedy: 107m ($15.9m)

5. Boonie Bears: 83m ($12.3m)

6. The Knight of Shadows: 28.9m ($4.3m)

7. Peppa Pig: 22.8m ($3.4m)

8. Integrity: 18.3m ($2.7m)

[seduh]

Thank u very much. So TWE is clearly going to win CNY box office. I'm impress with how big the other movies decrease. Last year movies that open bigger and were sequels drop better. Maybe because last year day 2 was a saturday and this year is a wednesday.

[Wotad]

At least this cancel's out the talk that China hates Sci Fi movies. 

[efialtes76]

2 hours ago, Wotad said:

At least this cancel's out the talk that China hates Sci Fi movies. 

Maybe China only hates Hollywood Sci Fi movies... 

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Maybe China only hates Hollywood Sci Fi movies... 

With Avatar still arguably the biggest success ever there, Ready Player One last year, Jurassic World, etc.. Seem to be high on their list of favorite.

[peludo]

47 minutes ago, Barnack said:

With Avatar still arguably the biggest success ever there, Ready Player One last year, Jurassic World, etc.. Seem to be high on their list of favorite.

Add Interstellar to that list

[MrGlass2]

21 minutes ago, peludo said:

Add Interstellar to that list

Quote

According to a 2018 report on China’s science fiction industry released by the Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, the total China box office for science fiction movies in 2017 was 13 billion yuan (US$1.9 billion), but Chinese productions accounted for only 1.3 billion yuan, or 10 per cent. In the first half of 2018, the total China box office for science fiction movies was 9.5 billion yuan, of which only 890 million yuan, or 9 per cent, was chalked up by Chinese productions. 

Foreign science fiction productions like Interstellar, Gravity and Lucy were blockbusters in China and account for one-third of all foreign movie imports since 2012.

In comparison, Chinese science fiction fare like Future X-Cops (2010) and Metallic Attraction:：Kungfu Cyborg (2009) are embarrassing productions where science fiction elements do not even constitute the main plot.

If anything, Hollywood is producing too few epic science-fiction movies. Thankfully, China is now coming to the rescue.

[Somoset]

7 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Genuinely I've started thinking about this. 

 

Comparing with Operation Red Sea last year. Both have almost identical reviews on Maoyan (even down to percentage for each band). The first week of ORS went like this:

 

F - 123.8m

S - 141.3m

S - 177.4m

M - 211.9m

T - 231.6m

W - 254.1m

T - 225.2m

Total: 1365.3m

 

So it took until day 6 to reach peak. Also not that on its first 4 days it had less than 100k showings, which TWE already achieved on day 2.

 

However, whilst ORS increased 14% on day 2, TWE went from 175.6m to 242.7m, increasing 38%. 

 

I think this means it'll peak earlier in its run, however since the weekend hasn't happened yet (not sure if this has much affect due to holidays), I see this increasing again tomorrow, then staying largely flat Friday through Sunday, potentially having 1500-1600m on Sunday (maybe more). Perhaps about 1750m through Monday minimum. Using ORS multiplier from first week we get 4680m minimum.

 

I'd say it's too early to say if this will beat WW2, but the fact Maoyan is predicting over 5B suggests they're confident in it.

 

EDIT: I got my numbers from Maoyan, but they seem to be different to what @POTUS has 

I think 3.5B to 4B is the ceiling for TWE, but hopefully, I'm wrong.