China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Asyulus]

Very good midnight number for BotFA that looks to me. It's more than twice as much as DoS took at midnight. Double the opening weekend would be even nicer.

What was DOS OW?

[Asyulus]

Let's be cautious. To double midnights can mean to be more frontloaded. Let's wait.

It doesnt always happen, TF4 has outgunned TF3 in China and it is not that frontloaded.

[MonstersandRoy]

Hold your horses.

 

How much did Apes on midnights? A little over 4, right? What was its opening wekend? Did it open on a friday?

 

Apes did a $47m opening weekend so $60m is no lock. I'm not sure how the midnights will relate to actual opening weekend though. Recon $50m is likely, but $60m sure isn't yet.

Edited January 23, 2015 by MonstersandRoy

[MonstersandRoy]

What was DOS OW?

$33m.

Edited January 23, 2015 by MonstersandRoy

[Leyla]

Let's be cautious. To double midnights can mean to be more frontloaded. Let's wait.

word

this franchise is more frontloaded so Apes comparison may not be 100% accurate

It even may be more frontloaded than DOS b/c of the final factor

 

btw here's the pages of this thread after the Apes release for reference / #s

[Asyulus]

word

this franchise is more frontloaded so Apes comparison may not be 100% accurate

It even may be more frontloaded than DOS b/c of the final factor

 

btw here's the pages of this thread after the Apes release for reference / #s

Is there a better comparison?

[Asyulus]

Guys what are your predictions for Hobbit 3's OW

[peludo]

Guys what are your predictions for Hobbit 3's OW

45-50. Total about 115.

[Asyulus]

45-50. Total about 115.

Seems cautious, i think this is the worst case scenario if it is even more frontloaded than the last two.

[Elessar]

this franchise is more frontloaded

 

I'm not so sure about that either. I think in China it's a lot about when's the release date and how's the competition. BOFA opened a lot sooner, we'll see how that affects legs, if at all.

Edited January 23, 2015 by Elessar

[peludo]

Seems cautious, i think this is the worst case scenario if it is even more frontloaded than the last two.

I prefer to be cautious and later to have a nice surprise than the contrary. I have had big disappointments with Hobbit in the past because of my very very very big initial predictions.

[Leyla]

Is there a better comparison?

idk

its the closest we have to BOTFA midnights (again maybe we shouldn't expect the dynamic of Apes in this case)

 

as 4 predictions last night I tried to apply the rule that Olive said is possible for our franchise

 

It will make about 8x its OD, for other hollywood movie they usually make 10x or slightly more.

 

& the numbers vary really from even below 100 to around 115 

so I prefer to wait for the OD numbers

[Asyulus]

I'm not so sure about that either. I think in China it's a lot about when's the release date and how's the competition. BOFA opened a lot sooner, we'll see how that affects legs, if at all.

Lack of competition plus better release date, this will be frontloaded as DOS or barely more.

[MonstersandRoy]

Is there a better comparison?

 

43.8% of total Apes gross was made on opening weekend, and 44.2% of total DoS gross was made on opening weekend, so it's the best comparison out there.

[Asyulus]

BOFA should have 41% of total on it OW.

[Leyla]

I'm not so sure about that either. I think in China it's a lot about when's the release date and how's the competition. BOFA opened a lot sooner, we'll see how that affects legs, if at all.

I just go by what Olive said

Ofc I hope it will be much better

I wonder how the competition affects mostly b/c of the screen loss (btw kinda strange rule that so many screens go to the openers no matter what  )

It def needs a good OW & good WOM & it may well have it

[Asyulus]

My goal: BOFA hits 1B WW

If not

Next hope: BOFA outgrosses DOS WW

[Olive]

Despite BOFA had way bigger presales than Apes 2, it did even beat that movie's midnights.(4.6M vs 4.7M).

Apes 2 OW(3 days) 284M, total 710M

[keysersoze123]

Despite BOFA had way bigger presales than Apes 2, it did even beat that movie's midnights.(4.6M vs 4.7M).

Apes 2 OW(3 days) 284M, total 710M

 

I think Hobbit will have worse OW and worse legs than Apes 2 for sure. I would say 250-280/600-670m RMB.

[Leyla]

My goal: BOFA hits 1B WW

If not

Next hope: BOFA outgrosses DOS WW

setting urself for a disappointment 

935-940 WW total imo