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baumer

ERC Monday 11/11/12 Numbers (Bond 11M)

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BD1 pulled a DH1. BD2 will pull a DH2.

But BD 1 pulled a triple DH1...Skyfall is just massive. I think we have to wait till friday, but there is a chance for it to reach 275 mio or maybe even more, so it could become a close race for november crown.Ralph shouldn't be able to top 200mio, TG is just too much competition this year, on the other side, christmas 2012 has just no family movies, it's ridiculous, so maybe i'm wrong.
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If a 14 screen theater is showing BD2 on 12 screens at 10 PM then Skyfall and other movies won't be getting many shows after 8-9 PM.

Pretty sure Skyfall would be second choice in that scenario, which means it won't be as affected as the lesser grossing films. I'm not saying it won't be affected, but 15-20% is overstating the potential impact a bit. 5-10% seems more likely as the effect will be more indirect than anything else.
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We are losing the last 5 shows(at least) of Skyfall on Thursday to make room for the marathons, double features and 10pm shows.

That's your theater and has been proven many times before, the conditions there are not representative of the country as a whole. For example, there is some moving around, but there are just as many shows at my theater on Thursday as there are today. Where I used to live, Sacramento, Skyfall is losing just a total of 7 shows out of 110, or less than 7%. With a couple theaters showing SF and not even carrying BD2 that night.
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That's your theater and has been proven many times before, the conditions there are not representative of the country as a whole. For example, there is some moving around, but there are just as many shows at my theater on Thursday as there are today. Where I used to live, Sacramento, Skyfall is losing just a total of 7 shows out of 110, or less than 7%. With a couple theaters showing SF and not even carrying BD2 that night.

Totally. We only have 14 modestly sized theaters that can be matched in 4-5 big houses at some mega-theaters across the country. But, for each of those 25+ screen theaters, there are plenty of smaller theaters like us, that will lose lots of Skyfall shows. We're dropping from 13 shows to 9, that's what 30%? 10 of our 11 first run theaters are losing about the same percentage. Just one small chain, but it adds up.
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I guess it has, but I expect that to change starting this weekend. I don't see any reason it would drop 45%. BD2 won't affect it.

Let's hope it's not another average performer like Bee Movie. I remember distinctly certain movies where the board, including I, would claim week after week that it would hold better- OH WAIT KFP2 - and of course that never panned out.
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I'm being forced to go to a preview of Twilight.I havent seen any of them in the cinemas. The first one was alright, but the sequels were shockingly bad. Some of the worst acting and writing I have ever witnessed.

You're a horror movie fan. You have seen worse.
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How exactly are twilights numbers declining? BD1 FELL but only cuz it eas penultimate in series. Besides bond won't make more than 250 in my opinion

Do penultimate movies typically decline? It may out gross BD1 just like in DH1 & DH2, but I still think the series peaked in Eclipse and won't cross 300. But I may not be the best person to predict this because I am definitely not a fan. :) And I think Skyfall will cross 250, but not 300.
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Do penultimate movies typically decline? It may out gross BD1 just like in DH1 & DH2, but I still think the series peaked in Eclipse and won't cross 300. But I may not be the best person to predict this because I am definitely not a fan. :) And I think Skyfall will cross 250, but not 300.

How many series of films have more than 3 films? Not many. So look at it like this. NM went up from Twilight, Eclipse went up from NM and BD1 dropped from Eclipse. Seems pretty logical to me.
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