Estimated Wknd Numbers - BD2(141.3M) Skyfall(41.5M) Lincoln(21M)

[Fake]

So OD for BD2 went up a little..... good for Twilight fans.

[druv10]

That's more like it. I knew that 65M estimate was way too low....70M is still dissappointing though.

Not at all, it's expected number.

[Ball Lightning]

Now we just need skyfalls numbers! Anything above $70m for BD2 isn't bad, just not good.

[DeeCee]

Rth last checked in with 63-65m around 6:30 west coast time. If he checks back in in the next hour or two he should have a fairly accurate number for Friday.

[spizzer]

I expect it to go up further from that

[FTF]

$70m is the only way it hits $135m...rth's $63-65m means $120-125m.

[JackO]

I expect it to go up further from that

I hope not. Will have to flip stocks yet again on HSX.

[MovieMan89]

The Performances are brilliant, but I'm not a big fan of Field. I'm thinking DDL, Jones, Field, Levitt in that order. None of them are my wins right now though. Normally at this point they'd be but sadly there's been some really amazing acting this year already. The movie itself is restrained and I appreciate that but I find that it just is too long and boring.

I loathe Field as an actress in general. However I thought she was near a revelation in Lincoln. It's the first time she's even come close to award worthy to me. I really am unsure if I've ever seen a more nuanced performance than DDL in this one. He didn't have the hysterics or dramatics he got to show in There Will Be Blood, but I was just as captivated by this performance as that one, just in an entirely different way. He really is deserving of that "best actor alive" title TIME plastered him with. And yeah the movie was definitely slow and dialouge heavy, but I thought it was a fascinating study of the politics and people of the time period. For some reason it never bored me despite its slowness. In fact some of the moments of silence in it were more engaging than anything else. I just found it remarkably well done and like I was actually able to step into a time machine and see how a part of history really unfolded.

[kitik]

IF she's right on Twilight, I'd say it's a mix of fatigue (BD1's poor multiplier and opening under NM points to this as well) and people being turned off by how the gossip overtook this film. They tried to do damage control, but I think a lot of fans and even the general public might have felt saturated by all the sleeze and PR crap. Gigli affect.

Good point.

[riczhang]

I loathe Field as an actress in general. However I thought she was near a revelation in Lincoln. It's the first time she's even come close to award worthy to me. I really am unsure if I've ever seen a more nuanced performance than DDL in this one. He didn't have the hysterics or dramatics he got to show in There Will Be Blood, but I was just as captivated by this performance as that one, just in an entirely different way. He really is deserving of that "best actor alive" title TIME plastered him with. And yeah the movie was definitely slow and dialouge heavy, but I thought it was a fascinating study of the politics and people of the time period. For some reason it never bored me despite its slowness. In fact some of the moments of silence in it were more engaging than anything else. I just found it remarkably well done and like I was actually able to step into a time machine and see how a part of history really unfolded.

I found all of that just draggy, and boring. I felt that the movie was just a bit bloated as well, but maybe that was just because I was really really tired when I saw it. I might see it again, especially if it gets nommed for BP and BD and has a legitimate chance of winning.

[JackO]

I loathe Field as an actress in general. However I thought she was near a revelation in Lincoln. It's the first time she's even come close to award worthy to me. I really am unsure if I've ever seen a more nuanced performance than DDL in this one. He didn't have the hysterics or dramatics he got to show in There Will Be Blood, but I was just as captivated by this performance as that one, just in an entirely different way. He really is deserving of that "best actor alive" title TIME plastered him with. And yeah the movie was definitely slow and dialouge heavy, but I thought it was a fascinating study of the politics and people of the time period. For some reason it never bored me despite its slowness. In fact some of the moments of silence in it were more engaging than anything else. I just found it remarkably well done and like I was actually able to step into a time machine and see how a part of history really unfolded.

Sally Field in the bedroom scene with DDL puts her as my #1 Best Supporting Actress till Les Mis and Hathaway comes out. Edited November 17, 2012 by JackO

[Ball Lightning]

I really think the combination of THG and 50 shades of grey took the base out from beneath twilight. That group of people are now fanning over other franchises. They're just not that into twilight anymore.. (generalisation of a small but important section of the twilight fanbase)

[MovieMan89]

I found all of that just draggy, and boring. I felt that the movie was just a bit bloated as well, but maybe that was just because I was really really tired when I saw it. I might see it again, especially if it gets nommed for BP and BD and has a legitimate chance of winning.

I expect Les Mis to be its main BP competition. So if that disappoints then I think Lincoln will take BP. I think Spielberg actually has a good chance at winning director as well.

[riczhang]

I expect Les Mis to be its main BP competition. So if that disappoints then I think Lincoln will take BP. I think Spielberg actually has a good chance at winning director as well.

Spielberg's won twice already. He's not winning again even if Lincoln takes BP. Lincoln will have to sweep to take Spielberg with it. I'm thinking if Lincoln wins BP it'll be Affleck who wins BD. However, all of that is moot for me as I'm predicting Les Mis to absolutely sweep. Funnily enough that'd give Hooper 2 BD oscars the same as a lot of legends.

[MovieMan89]

Spielberg's won twice already. He's not winning again even if Lincoln takes BP. Lincoln will have to sweep to take Spielberg with it. I'm thinking if Lincoln wins BP it'll be Affleck who wins BD. However, all of that is moot for me as I'm predicting Les Mis to absolutely sweep. Funnily enough that'd give Hooper 2 BD oscars the same as a lot of legends.

Exactly, which is why I don't think Hooper will get Director. He's too new for the Academy to give it to him twice, especially practically back to back. Affleck also hasn't really "earned" his stripes with the acadmey yet either. It's only his third movie and his first director nomination. I doubt they give it to him. It's been long enough and he's old enough that I could see them giving it to Spielberg one last time and putting him up there as one of the handful of directors to win 3 times. Edited November 17, 2012 by MovieMan89

[riczhang]

Exactly, which is why I don't think Hooper will get Director. He's too new for the Academy to give it to him twice, especially practically back to back. Affleck also hasn't really "earned" his stripes with the acadmey yet either. It's only his third movie and his first director nomination. I doubt they give it to him. It's been long enough and he's old enough that I could see them giving it to Spielberg one last time and putting him up there as one of the handful of directors to win 3 times.

I think Hooper will win that 2nd BD prize. Because, he's Academy friendly, his movie looks to be pure Oscar bait, he's well respected in the guilds (especially in TV) which will help him win the guilds which will serve as momentum for the Oscar, and he hasn't made a wrong move in probably close to a decade or more.

[TLK]

Will not surprise me if it makes over 70. Nikki's first number was 130 based on matinees, her second number (based on east coast evening shows ??) was 135. Based on spizzer's numbers the movie seems to have taken off after 7 PM on the east coast.

[TLK]

I think Affleck has a good shot. His first two movies were well-liked but he didn't get any credit from the academy, he is being touted as the next Clint Eastwood and he has a huge fan following. Besides, Argo is a very Hollywood insider type of movie with a lot of references that Academy members will get. He has things going for him that other directors don't.

[FTF]

I think Hooper will win that 2nd BD prize. Because, he's Academy friendly, his movie looks to be pure Oscar bait, he's well respected in the guilds (especially in TV) which will help him win the guilds which will serve as momentum for the Oscar, and he hasn't made a wrong move in probably close to a decade or more.

Hooper didn't deserve to win for TKS, and Les Mis (you're right) looks like more Oscar bait, so I honestly don't even want to see him nominated, let alone win.

[riczhang]

Hooper didn't deserve to win for TKS, and Les Mis (you're right) looks like more Oscar bait, so I honestly don't even want to see him nominated, let alone win.

I wanted him to win for TKS, and I want him to win again, only because I see him as the only acceptable alternative if Haneke's not gonna win.