Estimated Wknd Numbers - BD2(141.3M) Skyfall(41.5M) Lincoln(21M)

[baumer]

And it'll "barely be profitable" domestically....that's funny.

[Fake]

I am more interested in Skyfall vs BD2.....Right now I think both are headed for 270-280m.Gonna be a very interesting race.

[#ED]

I still don't understand how people say it's not going to profit domestically.

[kowhite]

Here's the funniest thing about Twilight being incredibly frontloaded....Summit gets about 90% of the films gross in the first two weeks. So that means, when it is raking in the coin, almost all of goes to Summit, where as the last few weeks when it evens out, then the theaters get the scraps. So in this case, front loaded films like Potter and Twilight are good for the studios,.

Very true, big openings are better for the studio than making the money in the long run.That being said, I should point out the 90% share you hear about is deceptive. They do get 90%, or whatever the negotiated share is, but it's not 90% of the total box office. It's 90% of a number after the nut, which is a negotiated amount representing standard theater expenses. This is why at the end of the day, the studios never really see much more than 60%, really on average more like 50%. Edited November 17, 2012 by kowhite

[Jack Nevada]

I think its hilarious how people here are like "OH ITS A DISAPPOINTMENT. MM-HMM, IT'LL BARELY DO ANY PROFIT DOMESTICALLY. THE INTEREST IN TWILIGHT HAS DROPPED"

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I do sometimes. And there's nothing childish about that. Calling it childish is childish.

[kowhite]

I still don't understand how people say it's not going to profit domestically.

$120M production cost. P&A for domestic and foreign market is at minimum $100M, probably more like $150M.Now let's say the film makes $300M DBO. Let's say the studio gets 60% of that, which is really a best case scenario. They've made $180M revenue. That doesn't cover the $220M, or potentially $270M they've spent on the film. So, not profitable. Yet.Of course, throw in all the other money this movie makes...and Summit is swimming in profits. So no, it won't be profitable domestically...but it truly is an irrelevant metric.

[Jack Nevada]

nvmd

Edited November 17, 2012 by Jack Nevada

[baumer]

Very true, big openings are better for the studio than making the money in the long run.That being said, I should point out the 90% share you hear about is deceptive. They do get 90%, or whatever the negotiated share is, but it's not 90% of the total box office. It's 90% of a number after the nut, which is a negotiated amount representing standard theater expenses. This is why at the end of the day, the studios never really see much more than 60%, really on average more like 50%.

You obviously know how it works and having said that, you know that in today's film climate, the theatrical release is basically one big trailer for its future earnings. There are not many films that truly make a profit from domestic anymore. Twilight has been a miracle over the years because they are the one franchise that grew exponentially and still kept their budgets in tact. The only reason the last two films increased its budget is salary. But when you have the final two films with a production cost of about 250 mill and they make about 1.5 billion, they have made a significant return for the studio. Twilight is one of the most consistent franchises for doing this. And if for some reason (which will not happen obviously) the final film did tank and made much less than Twilight standards, the profit they have made from the first four films more than makes up for any they losses that they may have incurred on the final one.

[baumer]

So if you are going to start throwing around budgets and then guessing at what they spent on the film to market it, then find me a blockbuster today that is truly profitable at the theater....besides Avengers.

[Jack Nevada]

Not even Avengers was profitable, really

[kowhite]

You obviously know how it works and having said that, you know that in today's film climate, the theatrical release is basically one big trailer for its future earnings. There are not many films that truly make a profit from domestic anymore. Twilight has been a miracle over the years because they are the one franchise that grew exponentially and still kept their budgets in tact. The only reason the last two films increased its budget is salary. But when you have the final two films with a production cost of about 250 mill and they make about 1.5 billion, they have made a significant return for the studio. Twilight is one of the most consistent franchises for doing this. And if for some reason (which will not happen obviously) the final film did tank and made much less than Twilight standards, the profit they have made from the first four films more than makes up for any they losses that they may have incurred on the final one.

Oh yes, they are wildly profitable. Twilight gets to be part of the awesome club of movies that actually makes money from their theatrical run. Usually, like you say, the theatrical run acts almost like a loss leader marketing to where the profit comes from...home video and TV. A movie like Twlight though, will walk away with profit from the theatrical run...then proceed to make hundreds of millions of dollars in profit from the downstream markets. And it truly is a thing they've had here...a mega sized blockbuster franchise with really modest production costs. You're right to point that out...it's an impressive thing. Summit has definitely made a lot of money off these films, probably in the billions when talking profit. And that's even considering they probably pay a hefty portion of those profits to the author.

[fmpro]

$120M production cost. P&A for domestic and foreign market is at minimum $100M, probably more like $150M.Now let's say the film makes $300M DBO. Let's say the studio gets 60% of that, which is really a best case scenario. They've made $180M revenue. That doesn't cover the $220M, or potentially $270M they've spent on the film. So, not profitable. Yet.Of course, throw in all the other money this movie makes...and Summit is swimming in profits. So no, it won't be profitable domestically...but it truly is an irrelevant metric.

Last part is so true kowhite....

[baumer]

Not even Avengers was profitable, really

Exactly, I mean it was of course, but the budget for the film was about 450 mill with all marketing costs, so it would need about 900 to break even, which it did.

[John Marston]

Not even Avengers was profitable, really

what a bunch of horeshit. I bet movies go into profitability a lot more than people like to claim

[Derpity]

Here's the funniest thing about Twilight being incredibly frontloaded....Summit gets about 90% of the films gross in the first two weeks. So that means, when it is raking in the coin, almost all of goes to Summit, where as the last few weeks when it evens out, then the theaters get the scraps. So in this case, front loaded films like Potter and Twilight are good for the studios,.

I would find it very very hard to believe that theaters have a 90/10 split during the first weeks of Twilight. Exhibitors aren't running charities and aren't stupid. I'd be interested in knowing the actual split if anyone is privy.Also my point wasn't that Twilight was some financial miscue, but rather that its not going to be the money spigot that the previous ones were.

[fmpro]

So if you are going to start throwing around budgets and then guessing at what they spent on the film to market it, then find me a blockbuster today that is truly profitable at the theater....besides Avengers.

Baumer... Buddy.. Trust me..This dude KNOWS what he's talking about.Seriously..

[kowhite]

So if you are going to start throwing around budgets and then guessing at what they spent on the film to market it, then find me a blockbuster today that is truly profitable at the theater....besides Avengers.

Ted. That definitely made a profit theatrically.

Not even Avengers was profitable, really

Yeah, it definitely was. The theatrical release more than covered all the production costs and whatever the P&A was. With $1.5 Billion box office, you're talking at least $700M revenue to the studio. Even worst case scenario, where the movie costs say $300M and the P&A was $200M...that movie made a lot of profit theatrically.

[The Stingray]

I didn't mean it like that. I obviously don't have a problem with gays per se.

[Mojoguy]

I am more interested in Skyfall vs BD2.....Right now I think both are headed for 270-280m.Gonna be a very interesting race.

BD2 wins that battle since it cost less to make.