Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[RichWS]

Box office observers, however, are cautioning that the elementary school shooting in Newton, Conn., that left 26 people dead, including 20 children, could dampen moviegoing among families. The killing rampage is a reminder of the mass theater shooting in Colorado last summer that left 12 dead and 58 others injured.

I really don't think so.

[fishstick]

Good for Neo. He has helped you to return from the dark side.

Neo lives up to his heroic code name.

BTW, you will hate me for this, but I was absolutely stunned by Blanchete in this. I had never really viewed her as truly beautiful until today- not even in the first trilogy. She captured the look and essence of Galadriel with perfection.

Essence of Galadriel is kindness. Blanchett never captured that because she comes off smug. But maybe mo`cap acted in her place or something. I mena, they digitally place actors heads on stunt double bodies and than actors take full credit, so I wouldn`t be shocked if performences are digitally inhanced too.

[The Futurist]

Even if the Opening week-end ends up being somewhat disapointing (85-90 ish, a record I know), the movie is still going to do big busineess during the Holiday season.Unless terrible or average WOM.It has NO competion in the tentpole departement, only comedies and Oscar movies.But 400m seems far away now ...

Edited December 15, 2012 by The Futurist

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Box Office Report: 'The Hobbit' Eyeing $82 Million-Plus Domestic Opening

[Elessar]

It's not missing $300m.

Even if it opens to $82m?

[Poseidon]

Franchises behave like a clock. But prequel to a trilogy is not a usual situation. It could continue franchise pattern or it could start behaving like a new one. It really depands on the overlap with first trilogy`s audience. I`m just insisting on it that TH is likely going to follow LOTR because of weak Friday which was typical for LOTR. LOTR always unmistakably recovered on Saturday. And by recovered I really mean recovered.

If you compare the saturdays, then you have to compare it with LOTR opening saturdays and those were all lower than their wednesday opening days and went up by only 19-26% from friday. Edited December 15, 2012 by Poseidon

[John Marston]

Even if it opens to $82m?

yeah, with two weeks of Christmas holidays coming up it would have to get absolutely toxic WOM to miss 300m Edited December 15, 2012 by John Marston

[The Futurist]

yeah, with two weeks of Christmas holidays coming up it would have to get absolutely toxic WOM to miss 300m

Yep,that s why 320-350 seems a realistic target.

[fishstick]

Even if the Opening week-end ends up being somewhat disapointing (85-90 ish, a record I know), the movie is still going to do big busineess during the Holiday season.Unless terrible or average WOM.It has NO competion in the tentpole departement, only comedies and Oscar movies.

I wouldn`t say no competition in tenpole department because at least Les Mis is advertised as a tentpole and Xmas event. Also, lets not forget that TH was supposed to be Oscar movie too because LOTR ones were. You can`t really convince anyone that you did not have Oscary intention if you keep traditional release date that worked for previous 3.

[RichWS]

I understand it's so easy to freak out, but it'll be fine with the holidays.

[blenderbus]

The fact that no one here is bringing up the tragedy today as possibly hurting box office (which I'm glad people aren't) when that's all you heard about here with TDKR, just proves my point now that I got so mad about this past summer that most people here were using the Aurora tragedy to justify their crazy TDKR predictions not coming true. Shame on those people. Glad us Hobbit fans are above using tragedies to justify a movie not meeting our highest expectations.

Oh be realistic. Those thoughts were true in such a devastation. The Aurora travesty hit movie goers worse then this tragedy will because it was right in the heart of movies.The horrific events that have transpired aren't going to put some families in the mood to go out to see the film these weekend, especially ones in the general area of the tragedy.

[Elessar]

yeah, with two weeks of Christmas holidays coming up it would have to get absolutely toxic WOM to miss 300m

Sunday could be as low as $17m. Next week it could drop 50% or more. I'm not doing any calculations but that seems awfully low. Edited December 15, 2012 by Elessar

[fishstick]

If you compare the saturdays, then you have to compare it with LOTR opening saturdays and those were all lower than their wednesday opening days and went up by only 19-26% from friday.

But they still went up from friday even with Wednesday opening. Friday was not the next biggest day or something. Besides, of course that numbers won`t match entirely since TH opened on Friday. So lets wait for Saturday.

[MovieMan89]

Oh be realistic. Those thoughts were true in such a devastation. The Aurora travesty hit movie goers worse then this tragedy will because it was right in the heart of movies.The horrific events that have transpired aren't going to put some families in the mood to go out to see the film these weekend, especially ones in the general area of the tragedy.

Yes I know that, but that won't have a significant impact on BO and if this underperforms it certainly shouldn't be used as the excuse like it was with TDKR for some people here.

[RichWS]

The horrific events that have transpired aren't going to put some families in the mood to go out to see the film these weekend, especially ones in the general area of the tragedy.

I disagree. Movies are an escape in a situation like this. I could see plenty of families going to take their minds off of today's events. Any negative effect on the box office would be very minimal.

[lab276]

Even if it opens to $82m?

Its legs would have to be outrageously bad for December. Rb02 brought up Sherlock Holmes 2, and he's right about it, $39m opening, $186m finish, with those legs, TH would reach $390m. I don't think its legs will be that good, but writing off $300m now seems at least a bit premature. Edited December 15, 2012 by lab276

[Noctis]

But they still went up from friday even with Wednesday opening. Friday was not the next biggest day or something. Besides, of course that numbers won`t match entirely since TH opened on Friday. So lets wait for Saturday.

fishnets, the REASON those films went up on Saturday was because they opened on a Wednesday. That is not the case here.

[John Marston]

I disagree. Movies are an escape in a situation like this. I could see plenty of families going to take their minds off of today's events. Any negative effect on the box office would be very minimal.

if every movie has a big drop this weekend then I think you could say it hurt, If not then no

[RichWS]

This is not a great weekend to open with $100M+. This is a huge shopping weekend. People are gearing up for Christmas.

[Elessar]

Its legs would have to be outrageously bad for December. Rb02 brought up Sherlock Holmes 2, and he's right about it, $39m opening, $186m finish, with those legs, TH would reach $390m. I don't think its legs will be that good, but writing off $300m now seems at least a bit premature.

Hmm, ok, i'll take your word. Edited December 15, 2012 by Elessar