Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[mdubs]

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (NL/MGM/WB) NEW [Runs 4,045] PG13

Friday $36.0M, Weekend $100+.0M

2. Rise Of The Guardian (DWA/Par) Week 4 [Runs 3,387] PG

Friday $1.5M, Weekend $7.0M, Cume $71.0M

3. Lincoln (DreamWorks/Fox/Disney) Week 6 [Runs 2,285] PG13

Friday $1.9M, Weekend $6.9M, Cume $107.6M

4. Skyfall (Eon/MGM/Sony) Week 6 [Runs 2,924] PG13

Friday $1.9M, Weekend $6.7M, Cume $272.1M

5. Life Of Pi (Fox) Week 4 [Runs 2,548] PG

Friday $1.3M, Weekend $5.2M, Cume $69.4M

6. Breaking Dawn Part 2 (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 5 [Runs 3,042] PG13

Friday $1.5M, Weekend $5.0M, Cume $276.7M

7. Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) Week 7 [Runs 2,249]PG

Friday $722K, Weekend $3.0M, Cume $168.6M

8. Playing For Keeps (Millendium/FilmDistrict) Week 2 [Runs 2,840] PG13

Friday $936K, Weekend $2.9M, Cume $10.6M

9. Red Dawn (MGM/FilmDistrict) Week 4 [Runs 2,250] PG13

Friday $689K, Weekend $2.2M, Cume $40.7M

10. Silver Linings Playbook (Weinstein) Week 5 [Runs 371] R

Friday $560K, Weekend $1.9M, Cume $16.8M

Did anybody else notice that for a short time (about an hour ago?), Nikki actually had estimates near the bottom of the page that appeared to have been arrived at with relatively sound math? With this, she had The Hobbit's opening weekend at $82 M.

Assuming that her $36 M number for Friday is pretty close, based on all the comps and calculations I've done, I've got this coming in at between $74 and $77 for the weekend.

[riczhang]

This is a phenomenal number. What are you guys smoking? It broke the biggest opening day record in DECEMBER. And it might even beat I Am Legend's opening weekend record, too! Seriously, guys, that's amazing!

I'm mostly disappointed because I bombed my predictions. 105 fucking million was what I had it at.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

This is a phenomenal number. What are you guys smoking? It broke the biggest opening day record in DECEMBER. And it might even beat I Am Legend's opening weekend record, too! Seriously, guys, that's amazing!

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (NL/MGM/WB) NEW [Runs 4,045] PG13

Friday $36.0M, Weekend $100+.0M

[Noctis]

So, if this number sticks, TH1 will do around $77m on its opening weekend (give or take a couple million). So...4 days and still lower than DH2's opening day.

[druv10]

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (NL/MGM/WB) NEW [Runs 4,045] PG13

Friday $36.0M, Weekend $100+.0M

2. Rise Of The Guardian (DWA/Par) Week 4 [Runs 3,387] PG

Friday $1.5M, Weekend $7.0M, Cume $71.0M

3. Lincoln (DreamWorks/Fox/Disney) Week 6 [Runs 2,285] PG13

Friday $1.9M, Weekend $6.9M, Cume $107.6M

4. Skyfall (Eon/MGM/Sony) Week 6 [Runs 2,924] PG13

Friday $1.9M, Weekend $6.7M, Cume $272.1M

5. Life Of Pi (Fox) Week 4 [Runs 2,548] PG

Friday $1.3M, Weekend $5.2M, Cume $69.4M

6. Breaking Dawn Part 2 (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 5 [Runs 3,042] PG13

Friday $1.5M, Weekend $5.0M, Cume $276.7M

7. Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) Week 7 [Runs 2,249]PG

Friday $722K, Weekend $3.0M, Cume $168.6M

8. Playing For Keeps (Millendium/FilmDistrict) Week 2 [Runs 2,840] PG13

Friday $936K, Weekend $2.9M, Cume $10.6M

9. Red Dawn (MGM/FilmDistrict) Week 4 [Runs 2,250] PG13

Friday $689K, Weekend $2.2M, Cume $40.7M

10. Silver Linings Playbook (Weinstein) Week 5 [Runs 371] R

Friday $560K, Weekend $1.9M, Cume $16.8M

Those are great holds. 300M for BD2 and Skyfall is a lock now.

[Noctis]

I was being sarcastic...OBVIOUSLY.

[Noctis]

With a $75m opening weekend, would it be safe to say it will sell even less tickets than the lowest-selling Potter film (DH1)?

[keysersoze123]

I think WB's official estimates will say it broke december OW record but it will drop with actuals. No one would care as it at least would have got the publicity.

[Derpity]

They might have to cancel the third movie now

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

This is a phenomenal number. What are you guys smoking? It broke the biggest opening day record in DECEMBER. And it might even beat I Am Legend's opening weekend record, too! Seriously, guys, that's amazing!

[riczhang]

There's always hope for DoS.

[mdubs]

It makes me wonder, by the way, why she would do that if she knows it's not going to be anywhere close to $100 M for the weekend. Maybe to string along her over-the-top headlines for the overnight...only to blame her inflated projections on the CT tragedy tomorrow, with deservedly dramatic headlines?

[keysersoze123]

Looking at weekdays back in 2007 it may not even hit 100M by thursday if it makes only 15M sunday and 75M OW.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I think WB's official estimates will say it broke december OW record but it will drop with actuals. No one would care as it at least would have got the publicity.

They sure will. Thinking they would report 80M.

[druv10]

With a $75m opening weekend, would it be safe to say it will sell even less tickets than the lowest-selling Potter film (DH1)?

You're enjoying this entirely too much.

[riczhang]

This is just fucking depressing. Just a horrible week in movies for me.

[Noctis]

If this does $75m, when will it be able to hit $91.5m?

[Derpity]

It makes me wonder, by the way, why she would do that if she knows it's not going to be anywhere close to $100 M for the weekend. Maybe to string along her over-the-top headlines for the overnight...only to blame her inflated projections on the CT tragedy tomorrow, with deservedly dramatic headlines?

Nothing quite so elaborate. She just has no clue how math works.

[JackO]

Did anybody else notice that for a short time (about an hour ago?), Nikki actually had estimates near the bottom of the page that appeared to have been arrived at with relatively sound math? With this, she had The Hobbit's opening weekend at $82 M.

Assuming that her $36 M number for Friday is pretty close, based on all the comps and calculations I've done, I've got this coming in at between $74 and $77 for the weekend.

Complete disaster. I am still in shock.