Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[Elessar]

I`m sorry but epic trailer isn`t the only reason why LOTR was an event. Eveyrone cna have an epic trailer. Cloud Atlas has one too. The way they created the sense of living the whole thing with the cast was brilliant.

That only came after the movie hit DVD.

[Elessar]

Yeah i noticed that too. I think that just confirms that some of the bloat I found unnecessary in the first half was only added after the trilogy decision.

I would have preferred more "bloat" in the form of character moments.

[MovieMan89]

FoTR's trailers were laughably bad compared to the actual movie. It's amazing and a testament to the staying power of the LOTR books that it opened to what it did with that marketing.

[baumer]

Here is my brief analysis of The Hobbit. And this is not new, this is what I have been saying since the beginning. First, here is a post I made back in June in response to Shawn saying that for it to miss 400 is almost unthinkable:

ShawnMR, on 07 June 2012 - 11:55 PM, said:

Those last two sentences are absolutely true. That said, this is still a pretty bold club. We're looking at three likely films hitting $400m this year before Hobbit even releases. Two of them without 3D (which Hobbit will have). For Hobbit to miss $400m after the past decade of anticipation and prior successes of the trilogy, something near-disastrous would have to happen (including but not limited to a VERY underwhelming movie).

Looking at it another way: To hit $400m, The Hobbit basically only has to sell a few more tickets than Kingdom of the Crystal Skull did. If one isn't willing to look at the admissions of even Fellowship of the Ring, I think the fourth Indy is a very fair comparison.

My response:

I'll preface this post first by saying that I know times have changed and this is not the 90's and Rocky and LOTR are different. But if you look at Rocky 1-4, they were huge. All hit 100 mill except 2 which hit 85 mill. They all sold more than 30 million tickets and they adjust to more than 250 mill each, with Rocky going well over 400 mill.

Then Rocky V comes out 12 years later and opens very well at 14 mill. From there it crashed and burned because people hated it. Same actors, same director as the first but Stallone changed what we loved about Rocky. The result was disastrous because the feel of the movie changed. It went on to have less than a 3 multiplier, which in 1990 was unheard of.

The point is obviously that if an audience doesn't connect with the film the way they did in the previous films, the film tanks. Is The Hobbit going to be another Rocky V? I don't know, maybe not but at this point you can't rule anything out. And because there are other films that have crashed and burned like Rocky V, calling my prediction stupid is stupid.

Rocky was one of the biggest franchises in the 70's and 80's. No franchise is immune to it.

END RANT

Now, what I witnessed with the marketing of this is that it tried to make it focus completely on the foolishness of the dwarves. Where as LOTR was about bravado and sword fights and battles and magic, the trailers made it look like the movie would concentrate on the dwarves being silly....then the poster comes out with a bunch of dwarves sitting there and one has cream pie on his face. This is the best they could come up with? A franchise about Aragorn and Legolas and Gimli and Gandalf and all the other brave ones, and they show a bunch of drunk on cake dwarves? What an absolutely ridiculous poster. Even the trailer ends with comedy as a giant beast comes crashing down on the dwarves.

Everything about the marketing in this film just looked off to me. And splitting it into three films....geeze...I'm usually not one to use this term, because I know all films are, but what a cash grab...what a fucking cash grab.

Then you have the animal deaths and put it all together and although this is going to do well, no doubt do well, it looks like it might make 800 mill instead of the 1.5-2 bill many thought.

Check out Shawn's 2012 preview...not to center him out, but his thoughts on the Hobbit echoed many others.

http://boxofficetheo...orecast-top-10/

I know this is going to do well, for sure it will, but I am glad to see it has been, at least so far, rejected on a massive level. Right now, it's just a good sized hit, which, to be honest, is what I thought it would be.

From a few pages back.

[fishstick]

I'm not being sarcastic here....but this is Hobbit. Should it not hold better?

I think so. Built-in fandom doing repeat business plus family-friendly and better WOM than TL for sure. TLK had a terrible WOM.

[The Futurist]

Biggest Box office stories of the year :1. THG : no one saw that coming.2. TA : Everybody saw it coming but that high ? No way !3. Skyfall : UK : OMG ! Worldwide amazing and US fantastic.then4. Ice Age 4 : OS, it is the biggest animation franchise, a freak of nature ! This is madness, they are going to make 8 Ice Age movies.5. Ted was a cute box office story.

Edited December 17, 2012 by The Futurist

[stiger]

Look at the dailies from last year starting on the 19th....they have increased from the last monday:http://boxofficemojo...newyearseve.htmThis has to be because schools are out.

Yeah, December is sooo good for boxoffice now. The Hobbit will do more than fine, I'm sure.

[fishstick]

I would have preferred more "bloat" in the form of character moments.

Character moments are not bloat. However, just having characters on the screen for a long time doing nothing that counts as characterisation is bloat. I haven`t seen TH but boat ride to Skull island was epithome of bloat because nothing happened nor characters became any more fleshed out or familiar to us than when we just met them. Just wasted time.

[Heretic]

Biggest Box office stories of the year :1. THG : no one saw that coming.2. TA : Everybody saw it coming but that high ? No way !3. Skyfall : UK : OMG ! Worldwide amazing and US fantastic.then4. Ice Age 4 : OS, it is the biggest animation franchise, a freak of nature ! This is maness, they are going to make 8 Ice Age movies.5. Ted was a cute box office story.

I think Skyfall hitting £100m in the UK is by FAR the most impressive BO story this year. It's absolutely unprecedented, and for a 2D film too.

[filmnerdjamie]

Biggest Box office stories of the year :

1. THG : no one saw that coming.

2. TA : Everybody saw it coming but that high ? No way !

3. Skyfall : UK : OMG ! Worldwide amazing and US fantastic.

then

4. Ice Age 4 : OS, it is the biggest animation franchise, a freak of nature ! This is maness, they are going to make 8 Ice Age movies.

5. Ted was a cute box office story.

Hmmm...

I'd say The Avengers, of all things, destroying the 3-day record followed by its incredible run is #1 followed by The Hunger Games.

[Jake Gittes]

I'm not being sarcastic here....but this is Hobbit. Should it not hold better?

It's not going to be a LOTR film, let alone an Avatar, in terms of legs. I'm pretty sure it's going to behave like all other well-received December blockbusters that don't carry those names, and I'd be very, very surprised if it held better than 45%.

[MovieMan89]

Biggest Box office stories of the year :1. THG : no one saw that coming.

I did! I even started talking about over BD2 here as early as last December.

[fishstick]

Biggest Box office stories of the year :1. THG : no one saw that coming.2. TA : Everybody saw it coming but that high ? No way !3. Skyfall : UK : OMG ! Worldwide amazing and US fantastic.then4. Ice Age 4 : OS, it is the biggest animation franchise, a freak of nature ! This is maness, they are going to make 8 Ice Age movies.5. Ted was a cute box office story.

Swap Ted and IA. ted isa bigger story because nobody saw it coming. IA was established OS juggernaut.

[baumer]

FoTR's trailers were laughably bad compared to the actual movie. It's amazing and a testament to the staying power of the LOTR books that it opened to what it did with that marketing.

Are you kidding me? The trailer was freakin awesome:

[Elessar]

The Gandalf stuff better have been moved to the next movie. If they cut that out just for the XXL sized dinner scene and some of that boring forest stuff I'll be pissed.

The whole part in the Shire was the best part about the movie. Character moments - something the movie lacked in the 2nd half, unfortunately. Hopefully the extended edition will not have just more action.

[Moviedweeb]

From a few pages back.

Well said.

[Elessar]

So it is clear that Avatar 2 NO WAY will break Avengers' record.

It won't. That was clear long ago.

[filmnerdjamie]

The Fellowship of the Ring's trailers (not to mention the trilogy trailer from Christmas 2000) were great. Enough with the revisionist history as a means to excuse The Hobbit's soft opening.

[MovieMan89]

Lol, Avatar 2 will be a blast to track on OW here. I can't wait to see all the meltdowns and people screaming "FLOP!" when it only opens to something like $110m. Then in a few months everyone will be calling it a massive success when it hits 600m.

[fishstick]

It's not going to be a LOTR film, let alone an Avatar, in terms of legs. I'm pretty sure it's going to behave like all other well-received December blockbusters that don't carry those names, and I'd be very, very surprised if it held better than 45%.

I agree. people here forget how much awards nominations and wins helped LOTR legs. WOM + awards. This will have only WOM. So since it opened on par with adjusted TTT minus awards, it should make less than adjusted TTT whatever that amount is. Unless there`s some huge shocker and AMPAS nominate it on the heat of "December record smash" as the 10th spot on the list. Unlikely but stranger things happened.