Weekend Estimates Hobbit 36.7 pg 33

[Gopher]

it seems no movie can hurt TH but TH itself cause its immunity to movies that cut into its audience is really a wonder to behold.

Look at past Holiday seasons. The market is able to handle multiple kids movies. Right now there's The Hobbit... Guardians and MI3D aren't making much. Parental Guidance can do well without hurting Hobbit.

[fishstick]

14 13 10 Silver Linings Playbook Wein. $1,821,000 -13.7% 371 - $4,908 $19,901,000 $21 6

Best hold of the week end.

Shittt, it still hasn`t hit $20 mio? C`mon, Harvey, this should have been much bigger hit.

[The Futurist]

Shittt, it still hasn`t hit $20 mio? C`mon, Harvey, this should have been much bigger hit.

Slowly but surely, hopefully.

[riczhang]

Harvey's already fucked up SLP's release beyond the point of any saving.

[fishstick]

Look at past Holiday seasons. The market is able to handle multiple kids movies. Right now there's The Hobbit... Guardians and MI3D aren't making much. Parental Guidance can do well without hurting Hobbit.

I`m looking at past holidays seasons and since TH dropped 56% which is unheard of for ME movies I`d say that WOM isn`t nearly as strong as fanboy-inflated Cinemascore suggested nor there`s as big interest in lesser ME as it was for the real deal.

I bet there are many LOTR fans who say they liked TH to avoid argument but reeally think "I wouldn`t sit through this again for free let alone otherwise."

Edited December 23, 2012 by fishnets

[Gopher]

Real winner of the weekend is Zero Dark Thirty. 82k PTA this weekend, 128k PTA since Wednesday. Stellar reviews plus the government saying it wasn't realistic means good things I suppose.

[Punishment]

Rank*	Title	Friday 12/21 (Estimates)	Saturday 12/22 (Estimates)	Sunday 12/23 (Estimates)	Monday 12/24
1	THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Warner Bros. 4,100	$10,190,000 +54% / $2,485 $123,343,000 / 8	$14,300,000 +40.3% / $3,488 $137,643,000 / 9	$12,215,000 -14.6% / $2,979 $149,858,000 / 10	N/A
2	JACK REACHER Paramount 3,352	$5,100,000 -- / $1,521 $5,100,000 / 1	$5,768,000 +13.1% / $1,721 $10,868,000 / 2	$4,732,000 -18% / $1,412 $15,600,000 / 3	N/A
3	THIS IS 40 Universal 2,912	$3,700,000 -- / $1,271 $3,700,000 / 1	$4,400,000 +18.9% / $1,511 $8,100,000 / 2	$3,900,000 -11.4% / $1,339 $12,031,000 / 3	N/A
4	RISE OF THE GUARDIANS Paramount (DreamWorks) 3,031	$1,566,000 +82.4% / $517 $75,360,000 / 31	$2,252,000 +43.8% / $743 $77,612,000 / 32	$2,082,000 -7.5% / $687 $79,694,000 / 33	N/A
5	LINCOLN Buena Vista 2,293	$1,403,000 +57% / $612 $112,551,000 / 43	$2,259,000 +61% / $985 $114,810,000 / 44	$1,971,000 -12.7% / $860 $116,781,000 / 45	N/A
6	THE GUILT TRIP Paramount 2,431	$1,493,000 +49.2% / $614 $3,524,000 / 3	$2,061,000 +38% / $848 $5,585,000 / 4	$1,836,000 -10.9% / $755 $7,421,000 / 5	N/A
7	MONSTERS, INC. (3D) Buena Vista 2,618	$1,391,000 +97% / $531 $2,876,000 / 3	$1,885,000 +35.5% / $720 $4,761,000 / 4	$1,764,000 -6.4% / $674 $6,525,000 / 5	N/A
8	SKYFALL Sony / Columbia 2,365	$1,275,000 +51.6% / $539 $276,367,000 / 43	$1,910,000 +49.8% / $808 $278,277,000 / 44	$1,515,000 -20.7% / $641 $279,972,000 / 45	N/A
9	LIFE OF PI Fox 1,750	$1,000,000 +41.1% / $571 $73,356,000 / 31	$1,525,000 +52.5% / $871 $74,881,000 / 32	$1,275,000 -16.4% / $729 $76,156,000 / 33	N/A
10	THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN PART 2 Summit Entertainment 2,000	$767,000 +38.6% / $384 $279,773,000 / 36	$1,017,000 +32.6% / $509 $280,790,000 / 37	$816,000 -19.8% / $408 $281,606,000 / 38	N/A
11	WRECK-IT RALPH Buena Vista 1,444	$477,000 +34.7% / $330 $170,400,000 / 50	$767,000 +60.8% / $531 $171,167,000 / 51	$759,000 -1% / $526 $171,926,000 / 52	N/A
12	SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK Weinstein Company 371	$440,000 +62% / $1,186 $18,520,000 / 36	$727,000 +65.2% / $1,960 $19,247,000 / 37	$654,000 -10% / $1,763 $19,901,000 / 38	N/A
13	CIRQUE DU SOLEIL: WORLDS AWAY Paramount 840	$802,000 -- / $955 $921,000 / 1	$703,000 -12.3% / $837 $1,624,000 / 2	$630,000 -10.4% / $750 $2,254,000 / 3	N/A
-	ARGO Warner Bros. 450	$210,000 +48.6% / $467 $105,746,000 / 71	$373,000 +77.6% / $829 $106,119,000 / 72	$320,000 -14.2% / $711 $106,439,000 / 73	N/A
-	ZERO DARK THIRTY Sony / Columbia 5	$115,000 +10.4% / $23,000 $344,000 / 3	$155,000 +34.8% / $31,000 $499,000 / 4	$140,000 -9.7% / $28,000 $639,000 / 5	N/A

 

[Punishment]

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	WB	$36,705,000	-56.6%	4,100	+55	$8,952	$149,858,000	-	2
2	N	Jack Reacher	Par.	$15,600,000	-	3,352	-	$4,654	$15,600,000	$60	1
3	N	This Is 40	Uni.	$12,031,000	-	2,912	-	$4,132	$12,031,000	$35	1
4	2	Rise of the Guardians	P/DW	$5,900,000	-17.4%	3,031	-356	$1,947	$79,694,000	$145	5
5	3	Lincoln	BV	$5,633,000	-19.9%	2,293	+8	$2,457	$116,781,000	$65	7
6	N	The Guilt Trip	Par.	$5,390,000	-	2,431	-	$2,217	$7,421,000	$40	1
7	N	Monsters, Inc. (3D)	BV	$5,040,000	-	2,618	-	$1,925	$6,525,000	-	1
8	4	Skyfall	Sony	$4,700,000	-28.3%	2,365	-559	$1,987	$279,972,000	$200	7
9	5	Life of Pi	Fox	$3,800,000	-29.8%	1,750	-798	$2,171	$76,156,000	$120	5
10	6	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2	Sum.	$2,600,000	-49.4%	2,000	-1,042	$1,300	$281,606,000	$120	6
11	N	Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away	Par.	$2,135,000	-	840	-	$2,542	$2,254,000	-	1
12	7	Wreck-It Ralph	BV	$2,003,000	-37.7%	1,444	-805	$1,387	$171,926,000	$165	8
13	10	Silver Linings Playbook	Wein.	$1,821,000	-13.7%	371	-	$4,908	$19,901,000	$21	6
14	N	Debangg 2	Eros	$1,000,000	-	53	-	$18,868	$1,000,000	-	1
15	12	Argo	WB	$903,000	-22.8%	450	-217	$2,007	$106,439,000	$44.5	11
16	9	Red Dawn (2012)	FD	$800,000	-66.8%	1,011	-1,239	$791	$42,632,000	$65	5
17	11	Flight	Par.	$709,000	-62.9%	742	-1,081	$956	$90,989,000	$31	8
18	14	Anna Karenina	Focus	$668,000	-34.7%	331	-78	$2,018	$9,646,000	-	6
19	13	Hitchcock	FoxS	$600,000	-45.8%	535	-26	$1,121	$4,215,000	-	5
20	8	Playing for Keeps	FD	$430,000	-86.3%	851	-1,989	$505	$12,416,000	-	3
21	N	Zero Dark Thirty	Sony	$410,000	-	5	-	$82,000	$639,000	-	1

 

[Gopher]

I`m looking at past holidays seasons and since TH dropped 56% which is unheard of for ME movies I`d say that WOM isn`t nearly as strong as fanboy-inflated Cinemascore suggested nor there`s as big interest in lesser ME as it was for the real deal.I bet there are many LOTR fans who say they liked TH to avoid argument but reeally think "I wouldn`t sit through this for free let alone otherwise."

Sherlock dropped -49%, Tron dropped -57%, IAL dropped -57%, King Kong dropped -58%. I really think Hobbit is fine. Nothing terribly out of the ordinary.

[fishstick]

Harvey's already fucked up SLP's release beyond the point of any saving.

I`m so mad. This was supposed to be another blockbuster for JLaw and he ruined it.

[fishstick]

Sherlock dropped -49%, Tron dropped -57%, IAL dropped -57%, King Kong dropped -58%. I really think Hobbit is fine. Nothing terribly out of the ordinary.

I don`t mind ordinary because that`s not what fanboys and arrogant PJ expected. They expected extraordinary which were LOTR drops between 18% (FOTR) and 30% (ROTK). TH is clearly not behaving like that franchise and has more in common with above mentioned movies.

[ecstasy]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

Skyfall climbs to $974.1M worldwide & shd break $1B before end of yr joining Avengers & TDKR in 2012 Billion $ Club.

I seem to recall someone saying this movie doesn't have a chance of joining the club.

[JackO]

meh weekend overall.ZDT couldn't even match Master or Moonrise Kingdom 's PTAsAmour barely got a better PTA then Anna Karenina's first weekendJack Reacher -ZZZZThis is BombingAn absolutely boring weekend

[riczhang]

I`m so mad. This was supposed to be another blockbuster for JLaw and he ruined it.

Yeah, it should've done descendants numbers, and now it's doing shit numbers.

[Gopher]

[Fake]

Big drop for Flight.... 100m looks out of reach.

[Jack Sparrow]

it seems no movie can hurt TH but TH itself cause its immunity to movies that cut into its audience is really a wonder to behold. Jack Sparrow`s numbers were based on the " lack of family movies" and I`m just saying that PG is a family movie and numbers should be revised accordingly. Now you claim family movie is no competition. Defenders should really decide on what excuses they are going to make because you are contradicting yourselves.

Wait did I say anything in defense of Hobbit? That was my prediction for rest of its run which could very well end up short of $300m. What do you expect will Hobbit end up with if it falls short of $300m? Do you think it will not make even $290m? If you are thinking that way then please revisit your numbers.Plus I said in JANUARY and not December. Parental Guidance will be out in December and even though majority of its run will be in January the most money it will make will come from its first 8-9 days of release. Take Gulliver's Travel (another FOX family movie released over December 25) for example it made only $15m of its total $48m after holidays. I believe Parental Guidance will be bigger than GT still it won't make enough to hurt Hobbit after holidays. And I hope you don't disagree that family movies can co-exist over holidays without really eating into each other's business.Let's just look at PG-13 competition for IAL in January 2008 (This is not even considering the fact that National Treasure 2 was a $200m family movieJan 4-6 - One Missed Call (PG-13)Jan 11-13 - The Bucket List, First SundayJan 18-20 - Cloverfield, 27 DressesJan 25-27 - Meet the SpartansWith all this PG-13 competition (even though not necessarily its target audience) IAL made $50m.Let's look at Jan 2012 competition.Nothing except Mama and maybe Hansel and Gretel (but the initial reports have confirmed R-rating)Plus Mama will be released over MLK weekend.You can nitpick anything you want from here also but this was the base of my logic. Not only that with bigger than IAL weekends itself TH will end up with $55m-$60m adding about $5m is not really overstating the effect.

[filmnerdjamie]

2 weekends out and still under $500M. Damn.

[Jake Gittes]

meh weekend overall.ZDT couldn't even match Master or Moonrise Kingdom 's PTAsAmour barely got a better PTA then Anna Karenina's first weekendJack Reacher -ZZZZThis is BombingAn absolutely boring weekend

ZDT has the best PTA ever for a Wednesday releaseAmour had as good a PTA as The Lives of Others and better than A Separation, A Prophet and The White RibbonThis is 40 has a chance of doubling its budget domestically

[filmnerdjamie]

Skyfall is gonna out-gross Twilight. So, so weird.