Thursday Numbers:TH1 $10.6m,Les Mis $9.4m,DU $8.7m....

[fishstick]

I don't see how. It would have to get a huge boost from Oscars. But it's already fading and once the holidays are over, the weekdays will be too small to make a run at 200.

Also, DU, LM and ZDT will get a boost from Oscars too.

[Michael Gary Scott]

This is 40 is increased! Was that expected?

Edited December 28, 2012 by Michael G Scott

[druv10]

Great for TH1. 300M is almost a lock.

[Jack Sparrow]

I too believe LM will start fading now but not very heavily, it will still do good this week (aka till holidays) but after that it will drop big. Crossing $100m is a given for both LM and DU, so that it not even a question here

[fishstick]

Fish, what did you think of Hobbit?

My reviews in the review section. I gave it a C+. My biggest beef is with turning Thorin into the main protagonist over Bilbo. Such a boring, unegaging character played by bored-looking actor who thinks being a hottie is enough, no acting effort required. may be judging actors more harshly after seeing DU but this guy just plain sucked as Aragorn Lite, DU or not. Not to mention that he usurped the leading character status from a much more compelling one.

[Jack Sparrow]

Great for TH1. 300M is almost a lock.

I don't see why there is still doubt about $300m it will continue to be the biggest blockbuster whole of January and the PG-13 competition is non-existent for WHOLE of that month. Plus given its holidays boost it has already come close to FOTR's numbers. It will fall bigger for sure cause there will be not Oscar buzz and it will be far older than FOTR after holidays but it would only need $60m after holidays even IAL managed $50m after Jan 1st so $300m is LOCK.

[The Futurist]

Great for TH1. 300M is almost a lock.

TH, at 300m, is still loosing 33% of its attendance next to FOTR. TH bo run disapointment is a lock. Edited December 28, 2012 by The Futurist

[baumer]

300 is not locked. Hobbit isn't doing anything out of the ordinary. Everything is about expected right now. So I'm not sure how you lock in a number that is far from locked. It's not going to have FOTR's holds in the coming weeks.

[fishstick]

Plus given its holidays boost it has already come close to FOTR's numbers.

Unadjusted FOTR numbers. Lets not forget that little fact. 3D, Imax and inflation.

[druv10]

I don't see why there is still doubt about $300m it will continue to be the biggest blockbuster whole of January and the PG-13 competition is non-existent for WHOLE of that month. Plus given its holidays boost it has already come close to FOTR's numbers. It will fall bigger for sure cause there will be not Oscar buzz and it will be far older than FOTR after holidays but it would only need $60m after holidays even IAL managed $50m after Jan 1st so $300m is LOCK.

After the first 10 days, I want to stay conservative and pleasantly be surprised rather than pissed and angry with my over prediction.

[Jack Sparrow]

Unadjusted FOTR numbers. Lets not forget that little fact. 3D, Imax and inflation.

Never said anything about adjusting. I was talking about $300m OBJECTIVELY and not fan boyishly

[efialtes76]

My reviews in the review section. I gave it a C+. My biggest beef is with turning Thorin into the main protagonist over Bilbo. Such a boring, unegaging character played by bored-looking actor who thinks being a hottie is enough, no acting effort required. may be judging actors more harshly after seeing DU but this guy just plain sucked as Aragorn Lite, DU or not. Not to mention that he usurped the leading character status from a much more compelling one.

Thorin boring?For me is the best character of the movie!

[Elessar]

It's not going to have FOTR's holds in the coming weeks.

Why do you have to point that out? It's not like we don't know. It seems you don't know that it doesn't need FOTR legs to hit $300m.Mind you, i'm not in the $300m lock camp yet.

[IndustriousAngel]

At the moment, Hobbit1 has more than 70mil lead on FotR. It can afford shorter legs.

[BenedictL11]

I too believe LM will start fading now but not very heavily, it will still do good this week (aka till holidays) but after that it will drop big. Crossing $100m is a given for both LM and DU, so that it not even a question here

LM doesn't face much direct competition in January (most of the new releases are R-rated). I'm thinking a 40% drop for its 2nd weekend and then stabilize throughout January.

[Jack Sparrow]

300 is not locked. Hobbit isn't doing anything out of the ordinary. Everything is about expected right now. So I'm not sure how you lock in a number that is far from locked. It's not going to have FOTR's holds in the coming weeks.

Its not doing extra ordinary (did anyone pointed that out here?). Plus you chose to conveniently (completely) ignore the comparison made to IAL.http://www.boxoffice...&id=vs-lotr.htmAs for FOTR dailies it is running $1m ahead (13 vs 15 days) and will continue to increase this whole week. By Jan 1st it should already have a lead of about $25m+ so it does NOT need FOTR's drops to get past $300m. Edited December 28, 2012 by Jack Sparrow

[Jack Sparrow]

LM doesn't face much direct competition in January (most of the new releases are R-rated). I'm thinking a 40% drop for its 2nd weekend and then stabilize throughout January.

That could be true but it attracts a crowd that is more frontloaded. If it gets a LOT of Oscar boost then maybe but as of now I don't see that.

[Lordmandeep]

I think it will hold well after the Holidays.Still the movie to see and I don't think Les Mis and DU will do much after the Holidays.

[Jack Nevada]

Too bad Guilt Trip bombed, i think it looks better than PG

[The Futurist]

Dollars don't see movies you know.

People do.

And 33% of people who saw FOTR decided that TH wasn't worth a movie ticket.

1/3 of ATTENDANCE LOSS

Edited December 28, 2012 by The Futurist