Geostorm | 10.20.2017 | Dean Devlin directs. Gerard Butler, Andy Garcia. The world ends in IMAX 3D. New even more ridiculous and more awesome trailer on page 25

[MrGlass2]

Quote

Meanwhile, Warner Bros’ Geostorm crossed the $100M mark internationally, whipping up a $49.3M weekend that was led by a $34.1M China debut.

 

 

[langer]

This was okay.  Chaos, Destruction and Butler!  The romance between Butler and the German chick was forced, but between his brother and the secret service agent was fine.  The politics was cliché and very lazy.  The CGI was good and fulfilled its purpose. 

[Mr Impossible]

On 10/23/2017 at 7:31 PM, vc2002 said:

One of the biggest bombs in history.

It really isn't though. It made $137M off a $49M Wknd. A bomb yes but not anything record breaking. 

Edited October 30, 2017 by Mr Impossible

[Barnack]

On 10/23/2017 at 7:31 PM, vc2002 said:

One of the biggest bombs in history.

 

It is at 137m already and is last weekend was of 55m, should get over 210m on a what 80 to 110m budget ?

 

Not even a bomb imo, let alone a specially big one.

[MrGlass2]

In my opinion, a "bomb" is when WW < Budget.

 

One thing is for sure, Geostorm isn't a disaster.

[MaxAggressor]

13 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It is at 137m already and is last weekend was of 55m, should get over 210m on a what 80 to 110m budget?

Shouldn't the budget be on the lower side of that range?? I mean according to Louisiana's budget report, Geostorm only had a 58.2 million net production budget before the re-shoots. The Wrap was reporting earlier that the cost of the re-shoots were around 15 million. Is it believable?? IIRC, JL and Skwad's respective re-shoots budget were 25 million and 22 million. Since the net production budget of Geostorm is less than even 25% of JL's production budget (assuming JL's budget will be 250m+), shouldn't the re-shoots for Geostorm cost less in comparison?? So the 15 million sounds plausible, right??

 

Nao even accounting for a bigger re-shoots budget, the final net production budget should hover around (58.2+20)=78.2 million or so.

 

Then making (210-220) million WW doesn't look that bad, does it?? Since WB and Skydance split the production budget right down the middle, WB shouldn't be in a tight corner and lose much money, right?? 

 

The Wrap also reported that WB didn't promote the movie all that much thereby cutting their marketing expense, here's the link

 

https://www.thewrap.com/gerard-butlers-geostorm-lose-much-100-million/

 

Box office and finance analysts who spoke with TheWrap estimate that the break-even point for “Geostorm” is likely between $300 million and $350 million worldwide. Usually, for a non-franchise event release, the bar is set between $350 million and $400 million. But WB cut its marketing budget for the weather-themed catastrophe movie after pushing back the release date three times from March 2016 to this past weekend, when no Thursday preview screenings were held. It didn’t help that critics gave it a 13 percent Rotten Tomatoes score.

“There really wasn’t a lot of advertising for this movie, and that’s a sign that WB was willing to cut their losses,” said Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock.

 

Can give us a potential range for the world-wide P&A cost for a disaster movie like this?? I'm asking since you have extensive data and knowledge about these budget related queries.

[Wrath]

30 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

In my opinion, a "bomb" is when WW < Budget.

 

One thing is for sure, Geostorm isn't a disaster.

I'd argue its in the process of clawing its way up to "disappointing".

 

Go, China, go!

 

Edit - I think its likely to pull a Warcraft and make more in its China OW than it does in its entire Domestic run.

Edited October 30, 2017 by Wrath

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Shouldn't the budget be on the lower side of that range??

Probably, I am not sure how to convert year's of pre-release/post production hell in budget impact, it affect the ROI in a big way also.

 

Has a little note, we cannot use the $23,739,049 tax credit and remove it from the gross to get the net budget, Louisiana like a lot of jurisdiction give a tax credit not a cash rebate, and if you do not have that amount in tax due in that state you will need to sell it to someone that want it (at a certain rebate they will not pay full price) or back to the state 85 cent on the dollar if they do not find a better buyer.

 

Net is between gross - tax credit and gross - 0.85 * tax credit

 

But it is possible that the movie also got other incentive from other jurisdiction they spent money, not sure those appear on that line.

[RobinHood26]

All WW numbers are not alike. I'm not sure why everyone uses that. 200m in china is like grossing 95m here.

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

All WW numbers are not alike. I'm not sure why everyone uses that. 200m in china is like grossing 95m here.

No one do in the really care about the numbers I think, never seen any studio executive talk worldwide number in the leaked e-mails, they always divided in dbo/intl, from what I gathered domestic = international * 1.3 being the best has i could find has a rules of thumb.

 

We use them just because breaking down by market with a weighted value is a bit complicated and the by market breakdown can take time to get.

 

That said Geostorm has already made 100m outside China, significantly above is budget with still some legs to do, clearly not a special level of bomb in any way.

[fmpro]

This will loose money but calling it the biggest bomb in history is wrong..

 

Its not even the biggest bomb this year

 

 

[MaxAggressor]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Probably, I am not sure how to convert year's of pre-release/post production hell in budget impact, it affect the ROI in a big way also.

 

Has a little note, we cannot use the $23,739,049 tax credit and remove it from the gross to get the net budget, Louisiana like a lot of jurisdiction give a tax credit not a cash rebate, and if you do not have that amount in tax due in that state you will need to sell it to someone that want it (at a certain rebate they will not pay full price) or back to the state 85 cent on the dollar if they do not find a better buyer.

 

Net is between gross - tax credit and gross - 0.85 * tax credit

 

But it is possible that the movie also got other incentive from other jurisdiction they spent money, not sure those appear on that line.

I didn't know that the tax reimbursements are not 100%, so thanks for that info on tax credits.

 

BTDubz, any comps for the world-wide marketing expense?? Also what do you think the break even point for a movie like this will be?? Do we use the general rule of thumb like the [2 x (prod. budget+P&A cost)] for the break even point estimation or is there a better way to go about it??

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Also what do you think the break even point for a movie like this will be?? Do we use the general rule of thumb like the [2 x (prod. budget+P&A cost)] for the break even point estimation or is there a better way to go about it??

2x (production budget + P&A cost) is some strange anomaly to calculate break even point that seem to have started around BvS release time.

 

Until a recent past the rules of thumb was if you doubled your budget you started to have made good money

It became double your budget to break even has the dvd market started to shrink and marketing cost to rise.

To now because of China, even smaller dvd market tend to be a bit above twice your budget, but not necessarily that much.

 

The best rules of thumb that I was able to extract from the Sony leaked accounting was

2x(production budget + participation bonus at break even point), only one major release lost money while doubling it's production budget+participation bonus and that was Girl With a dragoon tatoo (with is 107m world release cost)

 

Almost no movie ever doubled is production budget + ww P&A, Captain Phillips was a really nice success for example

 

DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (59,773)

DTH MARKETING (52,933)

DTH PRINTS (COS) (3,899)

DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (2,760)

 ITH MARKETING (28,600)

 ITH PRINTS (COS) (8,000)

 ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (2,605)

 

It's budget + P&A was: 158.57m

 

Under that rules of thumb, Captain Phillips would have needed to do 317.14m just to break even....

 

It only made 218,791,811 and sony made 50m off profit on it, one of is most profitable movie. Sony estimated the movie break even point at 119,800, 50.8 dbo, 69m intl exactly twice is budget.

 

Quote

 

BTDubz, any comps for the world-wide marketing expense??

 

World studio wide released movie tend to have an average P&A of 70m I think, Geostorm is probably close to that.

[MaxAggressor]

48 minutes ago, Barnack said:

2x (production budget + P&A cost) is some strange anomaly to calculate break even point that seem to have started around BvS release time.

 

Until a recent past the rules of thumb was if you doubled your budget you started to have made good money

It became double your budget to break even has the dvd market started to shrink and marketing cost to rise.

To now because of China, even smaller dvd market tend to be a bit above twice your budget, but not necessarily that much

I have no clue how the break even point calculations are carried out. Another forum I frequent regularly used that formula as a rule of thumb to estimate the break even points of BvS & Skwad. I was just using that as an example. You are the first person to actually give me a proper insight into how these things work

Quote

 

The best rules of thumb that I was able to extract from the Sony leaked accounting was

2x(production budget + participation bonus at break even point), only one major release lost money while doubling it's production budget+participation bonus and that was Girl With a dragoon tatoo (with is 107m world release cost)

 

That's interesting. So the break even point calculation is more dependent on the first gross deals/profit sharing after tax deductions. I thought it'll be the marketing expense that'll make or break a movies' chances at the BO. I assume the participation bonus money for the talents involved in a project are never revealed unless there is a leak. So it's kind of impossible to come to a conclusion when it comes to break even point calculation.

Quote

 

Almost no movie ever doubled is production budget + ww P&A, Captain Phillips was a really nice success for example

 

DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (59,773)

DTH MARKETING (52,933)

DTH PRINTS (COS) (3,899)

DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (2,760)

 ITH MARKETING (28,600)

 ITH PRINTS (COS) (8,000)

 ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (2,605)

 

It's budget + P&A was: 158.57m

 

Under that rules of thumb, Captain Phillips would have needed to do 317.14m just to break even....

 

It only made 218,791,811 and sony made 50m off profit on it, one of is most profitable movie. Sony estimated the movie break even point at 119,800, 50.8 dbo, 69m intl exactly twice is budget.

 

Thanks for clearing it up. I had a terrible misconception on how these things work.

 

That movie must've had solid to great HV sales and also gotten a good price from TV rights deal for that 50 million gross profit. Also if the movie turned in a 50 million profit, that must be a very good ROI.

 

Quote

World studio wide released movie tend to have an average P&A of 70m I think, Geostorm is probably close to that.

 

Thanks. I imagine that P&A cost is significantly bigger for the tent-poles/franchise movies. So what should we be looking at for a DC/Marvel/Star Wars movie when it comes the P&A budget?? 150m+?? Or are they even bigger??

Edited October 30, 2017 by MaxAggressor

[Barnack]

34 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

I assume the participation bonus money for the talents involved in a project are never revealed unless there is a leak. So it's kind of impossible to come to a conclusion when it comes to break even point calculation.

You got that right that why movie like Men in Black 3 or Angel&Demons that lost money to the studio was a bit of a shocking surprise, we just cannot know the break even point of almost any specific project, every movie is a bit of a story and 2 of the big expense, the production budget and the participation bonus tend to be unknown outside a leak or the movie made in a jurisdiction that will reveal one of them.

 

For the 2 movie above named, they didn't do too bad at the box office and some people made a lot of money, just not the studio that lost some.

 

Because of the lower margin in recent year's and access to the home video/tv revenues when the movies goes well, talents more and more accept to have some form of profit participation bonus with the bonus that start to kick close to the break even point (but with all revenus sources including soundtrack going toward the bonus if they have one). But first dollar gross or that start at an artificially low point are still not that rare for the Denzel/Dicaprio/Nolan/Bay type of name, specially on hold running franchise deal and need to be taken into account.

 

37 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

That movie must've had solid to great HV sales and also gotten a good price from TV rights deal for that 50 million gross profit. Also if the movie turned in a 50 million profit, that must be a very good ROI.

Yes they estimate the movie should do around 275 million in is life time, with only 96 million of those from the theatrical windows (35%), making 2.86x theater revenue is really good, that was the norm and not particularly good 10 year's ago. But now it is rarer, and movie skewing old, no 3D, with tom Hanks/good reviews/oscar/etc... will do it, but not all of them. And that what make creating some rules of thumb really hard, the in theater horror movie experience does need to make is movie in theater, the 3d spectacle movie people didn't really like, etc... are not the same than a Denzel Washington western like Magnificent 7 that will play on TV for year's.

 

Quote

Thanks. I imagine that P&A cost is significantly bigger for the tent-poles/franchise movies. So what should we be looking at for a DC/Marvel/Star Wars movie when it comes the P&A budget?? 150m+?? Or are they even bigger??

 

It can go ridiculously high, a big superheroes movies example:

 

Amazing spider-man 2:

  DTH MARKETING (70,900)

  DTH PRINTS (COS) (8,460

  DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (5,250) 

 ITH MARKETING (75,400)

 ITH PRINTS (COS) (21,000)

 ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (10,780) 

 

Theatrical world release cost: 191.7 million

 

Also had a home video release cost of: 46m (those cost went down a lot, it was sometime close to 100m around 2005 to 2009)

 

It is hard to estimate, but often the product placement deal are use to have just more marketing, not really to save cost.

[raegr]

Check out our thoughts on Geostorm opening in China 

 

 

[fmpro]

23 minutes ago, Barnack said:

You got that right that why movie like Men in Black 3 or Angel&Demons that lost money to the studio was a bit of a shocking surprise, we just cannot know the break even point of almost any specific project, every movie is a bit of a story and 2 of the big expense, the production budget and the participation bonus tend to be unknown outside a leak or the movie made in a jurisdiction that will reveal one of them.

 

For the 2 movie above named, they didn't do too bad at the box office and some people made a lot of money, just not the studio that lost some.

 

Because of the lower margin in recent year's and access to the home video/tv revenues when the movies goes well, talents more and more accept to have some form of profit participation bonus with the bonus that start to kick close to the break even point (but with all revenus sources including soundtrack going toward the bonus if they have one). But first dollar gross or that start at an artificially low point are still not that rare for the Denzel/Dicaprio/Nolan/Bay type of name, specially on hold running franchise deal and need to be taken into account.

 

Yes they estimate the movie should do around 275 million in is life time, with only 96 million of those from the theatrical windows (35%), making 2.86x theater revenue is really good, that was the norm and not particularly good 10 year's ago. But now it is rarer, and movie skewing old, no 3D, with tom Hanks/good reviews/oscar/etc... will do it, but not all of them. And that what make creating some rules of thumb really hard, the in theater horror movie experience does need to make is movie in theater, the 3d spectacle movie people didn't really like, etc... are not the same than a Denzel Washington western like Magnificent 7 that will play on TV for year's.

 

 

It can go ridiculously high, a big superheroes movies example:

 

Amazing spider-man 2:

  DTH MARKETING (70,900)

  DTH PRINTS (COS) (8,460

  DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (5,250) 

 ITH MARKETING (75,400)

 ITH PRINTS (COS) (21,000)

 ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (10,780) 

 

Theatrical world release cost: 191.7 million

 

Also had a home video release cost of: 46m (those cost went down a lot, it was sometime close to 100m around 2005 to 2009)

 

It is hard to estimate, but often the product placement deal are use to have just more marketing, not really to save cost.

 

MIB 3 lost money 

[Barnack]

24 minutes ago, fmpro said:

 

MIB 3 lost money 

To the studio, not to Will Smith or Spielberg and others.

 

Men in black 3 underperformed quite a bit on home video it was not well liked, expected to do a low 515m in is life time, not good for a 624m movie at the box office (82.5%) .

 

 

246m net production budget

146m world release P&A

88.43m participation bonus

42m home video world release.

 

Already 522m without overhead(around 25m), residual (15m) and some other costs, Sony expected to loose 28m on that movie, their co-financier an other 20m.

 

Remove that 88m participation bonus that started before break even point and it would have made money. That participation bonus effectively made it a 334m budget that did 624m at the box office (1.86x quite below 2.0x) and domestically light.

Edited October 30, 2017 by Barnack

[AJG]

Watching it right now. This movie is boring as shit.

[AJG]

There was no Geostorm in this movie. I've been sold a lie.