Passengers | Chris Pratt, Jennifer Lawrence | Dec 21, 2016 | Trailer pg 70

[trifle]

54 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

Really sad it lost so many theaters again this week. A lot of the holdovers were doing weaker business per-theater, but this will obviously hurt Passengers' holds going forward.

 

Is 100m still on the table? What do you think?

 

I think it is touch and go.  I'm going one last time this weekend, but I have to drive to Burbank for it.  Until yesterday it was playing at the Arclight Hollywood, but they are rereleasing some Oscar hopefuls etc.  Also some movies doing more poorly than Passengers have those two week agreements still in play.

 

However, TGWTDT also lost a ton of weekends on its corrosponding weekend, and last I saw I THINK Passengers was just above its run. I'll have to wait for @misafeco to do one of his great charts to be sure. Then again, perhaps Passengers is just BELOW, and he is sparing us....

 

I think its barely going to cross 100M, but that we will be sweating it to the last minute.

Edited January 20, 2017 by trifle

[misafeco]

@JennaJ @trifle

I'll post the chart after Thursday numbers are in. 100M still looks like a sure bet in my opinion.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

You guys don't know Sony? They're keeping it in theaters until it cross $100m, even if it take years to happen.

[AndyLL]

1 hour ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

You guys don't know Sony? They're keeping it in theaters until it cross $100m, even if it take years to happen.

 

At least in Puerto Rico

[Alli]

1 hour ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

You guys don't know Sony? They're keeping it in theaters until it cross $100m, even if it take years to happen.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

 

At least in Puerto Rico

 

[RandomCat]

[Beals]

LOL!

What a run!

What a gigantic, uber-smash of a run (and critically acclaimed to boot).

When will they announce the sequel?

[misafeco]

13 minutes ago, Beals said:

LOL!

What a run!

What a gigantic, uber-smash of a run (and critically acclaimed to boot).

When will they announce the sequel?

Glad we have you back. 

[JennaJ]

-	(10)	Passengers	Sony Pictures	$326,646	-19%	2,447	$133	$92,233,188	30

 

If we're done gloating, Thursday's numbers. 

[misafeco]

	Passengers	TGWTDT	%
5 day	22,19	21,15	104,97
Fri	1,52	1,94	78,58
Sat	2,26	2,64	85,66
Sun	1,57	2,08	75,43
Mon	1,15	1,37	83,53
Tue	0,63	0,67	94,93
Wed	0,40	0,57	70,10
Thu	0,33	0,57	57,22
Gross to date	92,24	91,03	101,34
Legs (5 day)	4,16	4,30	96,54
Final gross*	98,82	102,5158	96,39
*if Passengers holds the last day's %

 

Very bad Thursday number, hope it will bounce back today.

[JennaJ]

16 minutes ago, misafeco said:

	Passengers	TGWTDT	%
5 day	22,19	21,15	104,97
Fri	1,52	1,94	78,58
Sat	2,26	2,64	85,66
Sun	1,57	2,08	75,43
Mon	1,15	1,37	83,53
Tue	0,63	0,67	94,93
Wed	0,40	0,57	70,10
Thu	0,33	0,57	57,22
Gross to date	92,24	91,03	101,34
Legs (5 day)	4,16	4,30	96,54
Final gross*	98,82	102,5158	96,39
*if Passengers holds the last day's %

 

Very bad Thursday number, hope it will bounce back today.

 

And now it's losing another ~800 theaters.

Gonna slow down a lot. If it's gonna get to 100m, it'll be a crawl. Considering where Mag7 and Sausage Party ended, not sure why everyone is sure Sony will fudge this. They clearly couldn't be bothered to fudge a few of their other close calls.

[shayhiri]

48 minutes ago, Beals said:

LOL!

What a run!

What a gigantic, uber-smash of a run (and critically acclaimed to boot).

When will they announce the sequel?

 

Hey, this movie fucked up the feminazis pretty bad. That alone is a great success.

[trifle]

1 hour ago, misafeco said:

	Passengers	TGWTDT	%
5 day	22,19	21,15	104,97
Fri	1,52	1,94	78,58
Sat	2,26	2,64	85,66
Sun	1,57	2,08	75,43
Mon	1,15	1,37	83,53
Tue	0,63	0,67	94,93
Wed	0,40	0,57	70,10
Thu	0,33	0,57	57,22
Gross to date	92,24	91,03	101,34
Legs (5 day)	4,16	4,30	96,54
Final gross*	98,82	102,5158	96,39
*if Passengers holds the last day's %

 

Very bad Thursday number, hope it will bounce back today.

 

Yeah, about that bouncing back, today:

 

Under the heading of 'every little bit hurts', I tried to see Passengers with a friend today in Burbank, and had to sit through all the trailers and commercials, then the film simply failed to come on.  The theater was half full on a rainy day with flooded street intersections, and I wasn't the only one who had had to come out of our usual area to see the movie since it wasn't in as many theaters.  This was the second time in a row another man there had had this happen, it happened to him yesterday, also with Passengers, also at an AMC - but a different one.  He said they had codes to type in to show it which were specific to the showing and the code simply didn't work.  Our screening, and that other guys' screening yesterday, were both cancelled.  Refunds were given, which won't help box office, of course.

 

Edited January 20, 2017 by trifle

[amelin]

Ugh. The time when everyone expected it to cruise past 100M seems so far away. Those were the days.

[Beals]

16 minutes ago, amelin said:

Ugh. The time when everyone expected it to cruise past 100M seems so far away. Those were the days.

 

Remember when many people assumed this would do over 200 million easily because of the leads ( the leads' chemistry [that turned out to be...lukewarm at best[\])?

Remember when the film came and went, did less than 100 million, and failed to leave any mark in pop culture?

Yep.

[amelin]

7 minutes ago, Beals said:

 

Remember when many people assumed this would do over 200 million easily because of the leads ( the leads' chemistry [that turned out to be...lukewarm at best[\])?

Remember when the film came and went, did less than 100 million, and failed to leave any mark in pop culture?

Yep.

 

You seem like a lovely person.

[trifle]

1 hour ago, amelin said:

Ugh. The time when everyone expected it to cruise past 100M seems so far away. Those were the days.

 

There is an interesting discussion on breaking even v making money in the international thread:

 

54 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It did get around 30 million on it's marketing tv budget in the united states alone, it was an small for a wide release big budget studio movie, but still considerable.

 

 

 

There is no good rules of thumb to evaluate a movie break even point, because where the box office come from change it, the ratio production cost/total cost can change a lot, people can have first dollar gross type of contract, but the best I did come up with seem to be around for big movies is

(1.3 * domestic box office + foreign box office) >= 2 * (net production budget + participation bonus before hitting the mark)

 

smaller movie will need a much bigger ratio, because the production budget is much smaller relative to the releasing cost.

 

 

Movies almost never do that, most movie have a theatrical release that cost more than the theatrical revenue, if you look at a studio annual report, they do 30-40% of their annual revenue from theatrical, most of the revenue come after. Think about a movie like Passenger, imagine a 400 million world box office, divided 70 million in china, 130 million in domestic, 200 million foreign.

 

130 * 0.53 + 200 * .4 + 70 * .25 = 166.4 million, more than enough to pay the 100 million world release, but the 66 million you are left with do not pay the production budget and the overhead (and the participation bonus would have started to kick in too)

 

To not be a flop (i.e. not loose money) for a movie like Passenger the best reference is probably the movie Elyisum and looking at sony leaked document to see is break even point and expectation, it has a similar budget in a similar genre.

 

Elyisum with a 125.62 net production budget planned, with a world release P&A of about 100 million had

 

Break even point: 91.6 domestic / 128.3 international box office, 219.9 worldwide total

Targeted/budgeted to achieve (9.6% ROI): 125 dbo/175 ibo, 300 million worldwide

Wished Return break (15.5% ROI): 145 dbo / 203 ibo, 348 million worldwide

 

The movie ended up generating 297.93 million in total revenue, doing 20.453 million in profit for Sony, on a 93 million dbo / 193 million ibo 286 million worldwide box office performance. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JennaJ]

I still don't get the reviews this movie got and I probably never will. Sure it had its issues but it did not deserve to be panned and protested against. I'll probably watch it again tomorrow, for the third time, and I'm looking forward to seeing how my viewing partners respond to it.

 

It could have gone way Better, but not with these reviews. It was basically doomed as soon as they came out.

 

45 minutes ago, amelin said:

 

You seem like a lovely person.

 

Yeah. I get the irrational desire to watch something fail, but it seems particularly mean spirited to keep harping on it as if anyone here was trying to claim otherwise and needed convincing.

 

i mean, did this movie kill your dog or something? WTF is there to be so happy about that this underperformed? There isn't even any rivalry going on that would benefit anyone else by comparison (DC vs. Marvel style).

[trifle]

1 hour ago, Beals said:

 

Remember when many people assumed this would do over 200 million easily because of the leads ( the leads' chemistry [that turned out to be...lukewarm at best[\])?

Remember when the film came and went, did less than 100 million, and failed to leave any mark in pop culture?

Yep.

 

50 minutes ago, amelin said:

 

You seem like a lovely person.

 

All of that.  I assumed good reviews when I hoped for over $200M, and instead it got pilloried to the point where you were a bad person to go see it according to a subset of the reviews.  I still thought it would get over $100M and it may yet.  I'm definitely disappointed in the box office and think it deserved better.  However, take an original movie this panned by critics with no name stars, and you don't get anything like the result this film is getting.  It will break even or earn money, and without them, I don't think anyone thinks it would do either one.