Passengers | Chris Pratt, Jennifer Lawrence | Dec 21, 2016 | Trailer pg 70

[The Futurist]

Surprised about how lush and spectacular it is/looks, didn't expect so much action either.

 

If the movie's emotional beats work, this could do really well.

 

This Christmas,in space, are you

 

Team_Jlaw_Pratt_Pratt_Did_It

 

or

 

Team_Fifth_Movie-About_A_Death_Star

 

?

 

Choose Wisely.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2016 by The Futurist

[Goffe]

11 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Show even the simplest of math of how you think Passengers beats Rogue One.  

Generally, huge breakouts can't be logically predicted, they just happen out of the blue.

 

Granted, a lot of things has to go wrong for RO while everything has to go so very right for Passengers for that scenario to happen.

[Hermia]

This is a love story in an extremely luxury place with two gorgeous people and a cheesy story.

Of course it will do great in women audience.

What i wait to see is if JL will manage to get again an Oscar nomination, the academy loves both her and the director.

[CJohn]

I am expecting a 170-190M total for Passengers and a 440-460M total for Rogue One. 

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Goffe said:

Generally, huge breakouts can't be logically predicted, they just happen out of the blue.

 

Granted, a lot of things has to go wrong for RO while everything has to go so very right for Passengers for that scenario to happen.

 

Right, and I am not saying this can't break out huge, but what I am trying to do here is stomp out any ridiculous expectations as I have seen them not only here but a few other sites where people are predicting this will do more than Rogue One.  

 

I don't think any of them did a single second of math and instead threw out a random hot take.  

 

Disney could have re-shot Darth Vader taking a shit and it will gross $450m based on the franchise, release date and theater count dominance it will have for that opening week.  

[Elessar]

6 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Choose Wisely.

 

 

I might check out both, no need to chose a team.

 

The trailer was kinda meh but it is sci-fi, so it has that going for it, and the plot twist might be somewhat intriguing? I dunno...

 

 

[The Futurist]

A Movie with Darth Vador burping in Taiwanese would do 550m domestic I think.

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

That isn't showing the math, that is throwing 2 numbers out.  

 

Basically that would mean people are predicting a $80m opening for Rogue One.  $50m+ less than Suicide Squad or Deadpool opening.  $13m less than Godzilla.  

 

Again, I challenge anyone on here to show me even the simplest of math on the opening for Rogue One that gets it below Passengers unless you think Passengers is breaking out to $450m+ domestic.

 

Well, but here's the thing, Rogue One might not do what you think it will.  

 

My early prediction was like 130/550 or something, but the closer we get to it, the colder I get on it.  All these anecdotal reports of people not knowing what exactly Rogue One is doesn't help.  This could just as easily pull a Hobbit on us as it is to win the year.  As crazy as that sounds, it's possible.  

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, Rallax said:

 

Well, but here's the thing, Rogue One might not do what you think it will.  

 

My early prediction was like 130/550 or something, but the closer we get to it, the colder I get on it.  All these anecdotal reports of people not knowing what exactly Rogue One is doesn't help.  This could just as easily pull a Hobbit on us as it is to win the year.  As crazy as that sounds, it's possible.  

 

I very much doubt Rogue One goes lower than $400m. Maybe if all goes wrong i tiny bit bellow.

[Goffe]

20 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think the much more realistic number IF it is decently reviewed and they unleash Darth Vader in the trailer when tickets go on sale is around $550m - $625m.  

I think we all need perspective here. 550m is still a HUGE number and no movie is going to reach that benchmark without strinking the right chords with GA.

[dashrendar44]

9 hours ago, The Futurist said:

The last movie that had a "you die I die" type of line dine't do badly If memory  serves.

 

 

It's not so subtle the studio wants to sell this so bad like Titanic in space odyssey (or Love Boat in spaceballs if you cringe at the romcom dialogue like I did). Minus Celine Dion's belting and

Creepy and paranoid Jake stalking Rose in her sleep from the start and bullshitting her somehow that everyone on the Titanic are out to keep them apart to tie her with a mental leash in a possessive relationship.

 

They're playing up audiences for mass marketing sake keeping the slightest hint that it isn't the straight up starcrossed lovers action romance they should expect.

[The Stingray]

Maybe it's not trying to be 2001? Looks more like Titanic in space.
 

[The Futurist]

Romance has to be a bit cheesy guys, it's the nature of the beast I guess.

 

 

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Rallax said:

 

Well, but here's the thing, Rogue One might not do what you think it will.  

 

My early prediction was like 130/550 or something, but the closer we get to it, the colder I get on it.  All these anecdotal reports of people not knowing what exactly Rogue One is doesn't help.  This could just as easily pull a Hobbit on us as it is to win the year.  As crazy as that sounds, it's possible.  

 

It isn't possible and the trailer is coming where Disney marketing is going to throw out everything they have if they even sense there is still confusion like the anecdotal stories.  Also, I don't even see how the anecdotal stories even would hurt it.  Supposedly people are confused and think it is a continuation of The Force Awakes so that means they won't show up?  Ok.......

 

Either way, Rogue One isn't opening below Suicide Squad or Deadpool.  It has a massive theater count and the calendar is essentially clear for the opening. 

 

It would take complete and utter disaster for Rogue One to go say below $400m.  I'm talking a HD copy of the movie leaks 2 weeks before, it is Razzie level bad and there is the worst blizzard in history shutting down most of the country.  

[Bishop54]

"This Christmas In Space, No One Will Be Awake To Hear You Scream"

[Hiccup23]

Beautiful trailer! I am definitely seeing this film!

[EmpireCity]

10 minutes ago, Goffe said:

I think we all need perspective here. 550m is still a HUGE number and no movie is going to reach that benchmark without strinking the right chords with GA.

 

It is Star Wars and the same holiday release.  I am being conservative for the most part in thinking it will open to $150m and get a 3.5x multiplier or so.  

 

My more optimistic side is thinking more like $175m opening and $625m+ domestic total.  My really optimistic side thinks $200m and $700m is still in play, but need to see 90% positive reviews and a great trailer.  

[EmpireCity]

Anyways, I will stop arguing about this and Rogue One.  I think Passengers is going to do very well and this is a good trailer.  

[NCsoft]

34 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Should have been directed by James Cameron, then it would have beaten Rogue One.

 

If James Cameron has directed this movie it'd be by far my most anticipated of the year, the director of Aliens and Titanic just seems uniquely suited for this story to me.

[The Futurist]

If I can get serious for 2 nano seconds, this project is really interesting in today s climate.

 

It s really incredible how "branded" films have become in the last 15 years or so, just look at the blockbuster calendar for the next 5 (50)  years it s really incredible, almost no big "original" movie on the horizon.

 

GA seems to move their delicate buttock in a theater only if there s brand to soothe their mind and fears.

 

As I already said, this situation is not Hollywood s doing, it s the audiences that have become incredibly risk averse.

 

If you want my ten bucks, give a me an iPhone, I mean, a brand.

Edited September 20, 2016 by The Futurist