JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Quigley]

This could surpass Frozen I guess 

[Fullbuster]

This could surpass Frozen I guess 

 

WHAT? No!

[Melvin Frohike]

This could surpass Frozen I guess 

Its OW gross will be HUGE, as we all know, but a number of other movies in the past have also opened HUGE, and none of them are in the top 3 all-time in Japan regarding total gross, while Frozen is.

I can't tell you what will happen, of course, but Yōkai Watch seems more like a front-loaded phenomenon that has a built-in audience to me, at least until we find out otherwise.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Melvin Frohike

[CelestialFairyIX]

I will not substantiate a conclusive answer as to whether Yokai Watch will become the new Pokemon franchise.  However, one cannot deny the immense success of this franchise in Japan thus far.  We'll just have to wait for another twenty years to see if it will sell over 8 million copies of a remake of its old game(s) in less than 5 weeks.

The numbers for BH6 are not surprising, seeing as it will probably become overshadowed by Yokai Watch for the next several weeks.  

 

My predictions:

 

1. Yokai Watch, $125 million, this movie is going to be huge and with great word of mouth, it will certainly pass the $100 million mark

2. Big Hero 6, $45 - 50 million, if Big Hero 6 manages to outdo my prediction, the day in which the feat is accomplished will certainly be a great day

[Cynosure]

$125 million with this exchange rate is not happening imo. I could see it maybe reaching 10 billion yen (about $83-84 million) and even that's not sure as it could slow down really quickly after the New Year (not to mention all the pre-order tickets will mean it's more front-loaded).

Edited December 20, 2014 by Cynosure

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

 

Saturday Admissions (12/20)
Usual Locations (~1/3 of the Market)

262,682 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (NEW)
83,537 - Big Hero 6 (NEW)
22,131 (-15%) - Ao Haru Ride (Week 2)
21,833 - The Vancouver Asahi (NEW)
18,722 (-30%) - The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Week 2)
14,752 (-11%) - Gone Girl (Week 2)
14,330 (-40%) - The Last: Naruto the Movie (Week 3)
10,677 (-26%) - Parasyte Part 1 (Week 4)
9,422 (-26%) - Aikatsu! The Movie (Week 2)
6,542 (-05%) - Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Gaim & Drive: Full Throttle (Week 2)

Yo-Kai Watch sold 87% of its available tickets across all 4 cinema chains reported in the usual locations above. The only seats that were empty were some of those at the latest showtimes (after 9PM), nearly every showtime was sold out from 7AM-9PM.

It recorded the biggest opening day ever that anyone is aware of, in attendance at least, in the process.

And with the admissions here, it should have earned over 700,000 admissions on Saturday, if not 800,000 admissions. Its opening day alone is far bigger than an other film's opening weekend this year except for (and it's a maybe) Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends.

Yo-Kai Watch is currently outpacing the top debuts from earlier this year at the usual locations by...

1.98x greater than Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends
2.18x greater than Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension
2.94x greater than Frozen
2.96x greater than Stand By Me, Doraemon
3.21x greater than Maleficent
3.46x greater than Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno
3.72x greater than Godzilla
4.53x greater than Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie

Sunday looks just as strong, maybe stronger, with sell outs across the majority of the country up to the late night. It still looks on track for over 1.5 million admissions, setting a new attendance record, and could handily beat the old record by a couple hundred thousand admissions. Still looks like 1.6-1.8 million admissions is the range.

Just Toho Cinemas below:

Toho Cinemas Saturday/Weekend Admissions (Overall Weekend Admissions) [2013-]

Opening Day/Weekend (Overall), OD/OW multiplier (OW/Overall Weekend multiplier)
133,455/???,??? (?,???,???), x?.?? (x?.??) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (12/20/14)
85,115/167,188 (747,451), x1.96 (x4.47) - The Wind Rises (07/20/13)
68,575/159,180 (717,948), x2.32 (x4.51) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (09/13/14)
64,398/133,273 (649,865), x2.07 (x4.88) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (04/19/14)
62,250/120,489 (500,837), x1.94 (x4.16) - Maleficent (07/05/14)
59,492/121,802 (614,969), x2.05 (x5.05) - Monsters University (07/06/13)
59,192/123,606 (602,347), x2.09 (x4.87) - Frozen (03/15/14)
51,800/108,724 (539,132), x2.10 (x4.96) - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (12/07/13)
51,181/114,523 (554,991), x2.24 (x4.84) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (08/09/14)
50,274/88,560 (396,280), x1.76 (x4.47) - The Last: Naruto the Movie (12/06/14)
46,570/??,??? (???,???), x?.?? (x?.??) - Big Hero 6 (12/20/14)
43,669*/75,635 (322,162), x1.73 (x4.26) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (08/03/13)
42,541/94,650 (530,544), x2.22 (x5.60) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (03/08/14)
42,537/91,182 (429,918), x2.14 (x4.71) - The Eternal Zero (12/21/13)
40,635/79,373 (339,048), x1.95 (x4.27) - Godzilla (07/26/14)
40,414*/74,131 (363,451), x1.83 (x4.90) - Midsummer Formula (06/29/13)
39,836/84,982 (365,356), x2.13 (x4.30) - Thermae Romae II (04/26/14)
38,885/85,462* (464,839), x2.20 (x5.44) - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (07/13/13)
37,960/88,488* (393,522), x2.33 (x4.45) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 2 (11/30/13)
37,829/78,485 (433,346), x2.08 (x5.52) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (08/02/14)
36,995/79,454 (386,994), x2.15 (x4.87) - The Kiyosu Conference (11/09/13)
35,447/68,592 (330,385), x1.94 (x4.91) - Fast and Furious 6 (07/06/13)
33,778/67,625 (360,190), x2.00 (x5.33) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (07/19/14)
33,358/76,023 (345,921), x2.28 (x4.55) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 1 (11/02/13)
32,618/64,093 (302,992), x1.96 (x4.73) - Transformers: Age of Extinction (08/09/14)
30,000+/60,000+

*Stage Greeting/Discount Day boost.

It sold 91% of its available tickets across Toho Cinemas on Saturday, and more than doubles everything else's opening day at except for The Wind Rises, but beating it by 57% is absolutely incredible, too.

And very strong for Big Hero 6, too, even if it's greatly benefitting from Yo-Kai Watch sell outs.

[Fullbuster]

Well, as long as BH6 is doing well I guess I can't complain.

[tupek]

Bh6 is doing fantastic. Will be bigger than WiR and Tangled both of which had nice grosses for animations flicks (only Pixar/Disney find success in Japan).

And wow, that super-opening for Yo kai is astonishing!!!

[TheseDays]

Doesn't Japan theaters have allocated seats? Why those lines are so huge?

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

 

Big Hero 6 is actually doing great. It looks likely to top ¥500 million over the weekend, and could even do ¥600 million+ if Sunday is strong (it's currently up over Saturday right now).

That puts its opening way above any of Disney Animation's past works (except for Frozen, but it won't be much less), and looks to be above the majority of Pixar's films as well.

The big question is how inflated is Big Hero 6's opening from the huge Yo-Kai Watch spillover. And this will remain a question for at least a week as Yo-Kai Watch is beginning to sell out showtimes on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday already, too. Parents and their children will continue to make it their #2 choice if they can't get tickets to Yo-Kai Watch.

In Japan, if people can't see their #1 choice due to mass sellouts, everything else benefits from the spillover, where as in the US and most other markets, everything usually suffers from a major film opening. Drops this weekend are looking excellent across the board; only one or two films look like they'll drop over 30%.

 

Yo-Kai Watch

It's hard to say... first film in the franchise and all makes it impossible to compare it to anything, especially considering how massive it is. It has a very wide range. Without knowing its opening weekend yet...

¥5/6 billion ($45/55 million) should be the absolute minimum, and that'd be giving it some very, very poor legs, especially for this time of year. ¥7/8 billion ($60/70 million) is probably the most realistic/conservative range. ¥10 billion or higher ($90/$100 million+) wouldn't be impossible, but should be a challenge since legs shouldn't be too great because it'll likely begin to fall hard come mid-January since its main audience are elementary aged children and pre-teens.

Its box-office is going to be absolutely humongous from now until mid-January, though. We will possibly see some records broken for highest total/admissions after one week/two weeks, and its second/third weekends themselves might be record setting. New Year is always massive for family/children films, and there's nothing more popular with them than Yo-Kai Watch right now.

[tupek]

So BH6 is actually being benefited by Yo-Kai Watch, and of course it's doing great numbers, looks like some people were thinking it would make $100m easily or it would be another kind of Frozen. 

[lab276]

10b should be done pretty easy, it's 20% of the way there already.

[Melvin Frohike]

Corpse

 

The big question is how inflated is Big Hero 6's opening from the huge Yo-Kai Watch spillover.

Inflated over what it would have grossed without Yōkai Watch selling out so much, or over what it would have grossed if Yōkai Watch had not been released on the same weekend?

 

and of course it's doing great numbers, looks like some people were thinking it would make $100m easily or it would be another kind of Frozen.

I haven't seen any of the latter--I think that some folks must be comparing Big Hero 6 with Yōkai Watch.

[lab276]

Inflated over what it would have grossed without Yōkai Watch selling out so much, or over what it would have grossed if Yōkai Watch had not been released on the same weekend?

The former.

[Melvin Frohike]

10b should be done pretty easy, it's 20% of the way there already.

It would have to have really bad WOM to fall short of even that mark in this market. Either that or an enormous percentage of everybody who wanted to ever see it showed up on OW, which is possible, but like you I think the movie should pass ¥10B without difficulty.

[Fullbuster]

BH6 will have great legs, certainly better legs than YW given the great WOM it will benefit from. So these kids having watch it will talk about their friends, they won't be able to resist Baymax

BH6 could surprise us quite a lot

[eXtacy]

Everytime I look in this thread I am reminded that the Japanese are a weird bunch.

[lab276]

Everytime I look in this thread I am reminded that the Japanese are a weird bunch.

What about this is particularly weird?

[Fullbuster]

What about this is particularly weird?

 

You really need to ask? Try to think a bit harder....

[lab276]

You really need to ask? Try to think a bit harder....

I don't know, it's a film doing well in its domestic market. Happens all the time everywhere.