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CoolEric258

Moonlight l A24 l Plan B l October 21, 2016 l Academy Award Best Picture

171 posts in this topic

Pretty sure Slumdog Millionaire is the only BP winner in the past who knows how many years that made really substantial money before AND after its win. 

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ROTK only made another 13m after its huge win, and it wasn't even close to coming out on video at that point. Sometimes the awards are a huge boost, sometimes not.

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Just now, Tele Came Back said:

ROTK only made another 13m after its huge win, and it wasn't even close to coming out on video at that point. Sometimes the awards are a huge boost, sometimes not.

Everyone had pretty much seen the movie at that point, though.

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6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Pretty sure Slumdog Millionaire is the only BP winner in the past who knows how many years that made really substantial money before AND after its win. 

 

That is just half of Slumdog, but King Speech made 21m after the win.

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Everyone had pretty much seen the movie at that point, though.

 

Of course, I'm not saying that wasn't the case. I'm just saying gross after Oscar win isn't indicative of quality (however you choose to perceive it).

 

I think it's fair to say MOONLIGHT appealed to a general niche of the population (one with a heavy arthouse slant) and it's not shocking that it didn't suddenly generate tens of millions more theatrically.

 

In other MOONLIGHT news, a street in Liberty City just got renamed Moonlight Way as a tribute.

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i just think the gap between the academy and the public is the widest it's ever been and i don't think that's gonna change. I'm not on some lordmandeep "they need to start awarding marvel movies" type shit since for now they're not really in any danger even if their ratings keep falling they still dominate over any other awards show for any medium. eventually when it falls too much they're just gonna have to accept themselves as a niche thing and scale it back a bit, probably. which is fine to me.

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11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What do all of these movies have in common (other than being Best Picture winners)? They were all available or about to be available on DVD by the time Oscar night came.

Exactly my point. Moonlight's post-BP box office was nothing out of the ordinary.

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Just now, CoolioD1 said:

i just think the gap between the academy and the public is the widest it's ever been and i don't think that's gonna change. I'm not on some lordmandeep "they need to start awarding marvel movies" type shit since for now they're not really in any danger even if their ratings keep falling they still dominate over any other awards show for any medium. eventually when it falls too much they're just gonna have to accept themselves as a niche thing and scale it back a bit, probably. which is fine to me.

 

Now watch AVATAR 2 get nominated for a shitload of awards. :lol: 

 

(Don't think it won't happen if the movie is solid.)

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in a few years half the oscar nominees are just gonna be netflix movies that only played in 2 cinemas for a week anyway.

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6 minutes ago, Tele Came Back said:

ROTK only made another 13m after its huge win, and it wasn't even close to coming out on video at that point. Sometimes the awards are a huge boost, sometimes not.

 

Apparently Golden Globes tend to be the big boost box office wise, because they arrive first.

 

http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/2013/01/15/golden-globe-films-are-worth-millions-more-than-oscar-winners/

 

https://mic.com/articles/164766/how-much-is-a-golden-globe-worth-how-the-prize-compares-to-oscars-and-other-awards#.pfnnxv6Kc

Helmer found that on average, Golden Globe winners receive a bigger boost at the box office than Oscar victors: about $14.2 million per film versus $3 million.

 

In the Sony leaked e-mail they talk a little bit about the value and for big movie that already had achieved some saturation like a Captain Philips the Oscar phase 2 (winning) it is not that impressive, after you remove people bonus/residual and all their expense from the added potential revenue Hanks winning best Actor was an expected added studio revenue of something like 1 million, much less than the movie 3.5 million award campaign cost and the impact of the screener leak.

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Posted (edited)

11 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i just think the gap between the academy and the public is the widest it's ever been and i don't think that's gonna change.

 

The franchise and the vast importance of the first weekend created a giant gap between quality and what the public end up seeing before oscar night (at least in theater).

 

The non-franchise/was not a success because it pre-sold a lot of ticket before anyone have even seen the movie that do big at the box office like The Martian, American Sniper, acclaimed science-fiction film Gravity and so on tend to still do well at the Oscar. Not sure the taste of the academy changed that much (or even the public), what determine what they go see in theater changed a lot.

 

If it stay that way, it will probably not change soon, if it become netflix/amazon title for who the franchise power and the first weekend has no importance in how much they are seen by the public, but it is build up on quality and word of mouth like Stranger Things, it could change extremely rapidly.

Edited by Barnack
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The shortening theater-to-home window over the last 15+ years has no doubt contributed for the most part.

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12 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

in a few years half the oscar nominees are just gonna be netflix movies that only played in 2 cinemas for a week anyway.

 

Adam Sandler comeback inbound?

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Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Adam Sandler comeback inbound?

you joke but he's in noah baumbach's next picture which is playing Cannes and just got bought by netflix so FROM YOUR LIPS TO GOD'S EARS.

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9 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

you joke but he's in noah baumbach's next picture which is playing Cannes and just got bought by netflix so FROM YOUR LIPS TO GOD'S EARS.

 

wait wtf.  now I can't wait for BEST ACTOR NOMINEE ADAM SANDLER to come up in the advertisements for his next studio comedy (if he ever makes another one?).

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19 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Apparently Golden Globes tend to be the big boost box office wise, because they arrive first.

 

Tiny example but I was a little shocked when Elle suddenly went 200+ theaters after Huppert's best actress win at the Globes and its weekend gross jumped over 400%. And then when she got nominated for the Oscar there was pretty much no box office boost in comparison. Non-foreign language Manchester By The Sea which actually won a Best Actor Oscar didn't see any boost from that either. 

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netflix could actually get nominations if they treated their movies like movies. seems like they have big expectations for Mudbound this year but wouldn't be surprised if they fuck it up since they're planning pretty much the same release strategy they've been doing. dunno why they wanna completely ignore how well Amazon did with manchester by treating it legit.

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The best actor win has the reputation to be the less valuable win of all major Oscar i think:

 

http://boxofficequant.com/the-value-of-an-oscar/

 

The-Value-of-an-Oscar-Type-of-Awards.png

 

That does fit with the leaked Sony oscar value estimate. The bonus studio gave to people for a nom or a win were not big (relatively) to, 25k for a nomination, 50k more for a win on American Hustle.

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59 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i just think the gap between the academy and the public is the widest it's ever been and i don't think that's gonna change. I'm not on some lordmandeep "they need to start awarding marvel movies" type shit since for now they're not really in any danger even if their ratings keep falling they still dominate over any other awards show for any medium. eventually when it falls too much they're just gonna have to accept themselves as a niche thing and scale it back a bit, probably. which is fine to me.

 

I agree with virtually all of the analysis in this post. It's definitely one of the consequences of all the major studios shifting to such a franchise-centric approach more so than at any other past point in their history.

 

I'm also convinced that the preferential ballot has opened the door for movies that might not have had the support to win in the past. Although there's no denying that Spotlight and Moonlight had their large share of ardent fans in the Academy, I find it hard to believe - based upon a reading of the hype in each season - that they got more #1 votes than The Revenant and La La Land, respectively. Minimizing hype backlash is now a more essential task than ever in the Best Picture race.

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15 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

 

I agree with virtually all of the analysis in this post. It's definitely one of the consequences of all the major studios shifting to such a franchise-centric approach more so than at any other past point in their history.

 

I'm also convinced that the preferential ballot has opened the door for movies that might not have had the support to win in the past. Although there's no denying that Spotlight and Moonlight had their large share of ardent fans in the Academy, I find it hard to believe - based upon a reading of the hype in each season - that they got more #1 votes than The Revenant and La La Land, respectively. Minimizing hype backlash is now a more essential task than ever in the Best Picture race.

 

I think it's quite possible both did. There were certainly some loud passionate supporters of REVENANT/LLL, but also a significant number of quieter voices that didn't support either. 

 

But I agree with your overall post, generally speaking.

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