CloneWars

Ouch for BatB! I bet TPM will have a similar frontloadedness.

So, I cam into this film with some reservations, but this really took my breath away. It is a beautiful movie that is amazingly well done. I can see this making the next AFI 100 list. It is truly a work of art, and you can tell so much went into this film. Everything about it is brilliantly done. I don't think it is for everyone. It does take a certain level of appreciation. But, for me, I was very impressed.A+

You might have a point. The Help seems to be of a similar category as Crash and Shakespeare in Love. However, The Help doesn't have much going for it precussors. But, I guess we will have to wait and see what happens at the SAG awards. But, so far, everything is looking very good for The Artist.

I think 2011 is average when it comes to BO. 2010 was an exceptional year where pretty much every movie had mainstream appeal. This year looks to be the same as most past years, BO wise.

I agree 100%. Tree has a much better chance than BM at getting a nom. Anyway, at this point, it all kind of seems pointless. I don't think there is any doubt that The Artist wins BP at this point unless all of sudden backlash happens like it did last year to TSN. But, I don't think there is a film strong enough even if there is backlash. At least, with TSN, TKS was seen as the frontrunner for a while, and had a lot of support behind it. I'm just not feeling it for any of the other films.

Tinker Tailor is a British film, so I don't think that is saying much. However, good for Drive.

Please note that since 2004 only one BP winner at the GG has gone on to win BP at the Oscars and that was Slumdog Millionaire in 2008 which I believe also sweeped all the other precussors. Anyway, with that said, I think this year will be more like 2008, and we will one of the two GG BP winners end up taking home the Oscar this year, but from a statistical perspective, both The Artist and The Descendants have an uphill battle, especially if the guilds go for something else. The same happened last year when TSN looked like the clear frontrunner and won the GG just to get snubbed by the guilds, ultimately leading to TKS winning.

Hey Baumer,I think a lot of us when discussing The Artist are taking our emotions out of the equation and looking at what the Academy is going to go with. None of us have to like the film, but common sense tells us this getting many nods including screenplay and picture obviously. A lot of the posts I read, I don't see people going on about how they like The Artist, but instead, people are talking about its odds at being nominated, or rather winning sinces nods are all but locked for this film.With that said, I haven't seen the film, so I can only go off of precussor awards and stuff like that. But, everything is poinint to The Artist being a heavyweight at this years Oscars. But, I am kind of with you, I think this is the kind of film that will turn off a lot of casual viewers. Each year, the Academy seems to be losing its touch with the mainstream culture, and this winning might be another big strike and lead to lower ratings next year, or maybe even this year if everyone thinks it will win.THL is the lowest grossing BP winner adjusted for inflation since what, the 50's, or is that unadjusted. Either way, no one saw that. Slumdog Millionaire is practically forgotten. Crash...yah, who remembers that. What is odd is that if you look back at past decades we see a lot of BP winners that were also popular with the mainstream. Since the 2000s, it seems that the Academy really favors random art house films. Now, I have nothing against that, but every now and then, they do need to throw the general public a bone. Otherwise, they will just alientate everyone except "elite" film critics, and I think this may just be the film to do so. With that said, I sill haven't seen the film, so I am not 100% in a position to comment on it, but I know the concept of a B&W silent film doesn't appeal to a lot of moviegoers.

1. The Dark Knight Rises2. The Hobbit3 Prometheus4. Avengers5. Titanic 3D6. Beauty and the Beast 3D7. Lincoln8. The Amazing Spider-Man9. TPM 3D10. G.I. Joe 2

Much better than I was expecting.

I'm actually kind of liking this awards season. It is a lot more unpredictable compared to the last few years. I still think DH2 has a chance at a BP nom. Heck, a lot of films have a chance at a BP nom. I'm still sticking with there being nine noms this year, but we might get 10. But, 9 is my lucky number this year. Oh, and btw, I could care less if DH2 makes it in. I'm just saying I have that feeling it will get in, despite precursor awards saying otherwise.

Despite what that article says, War Horse is not all of a sudden front runner. No SAG love. No BD at Globes. What is this person smoking?

George Lucas made a lot of crap movies between ROTJ and TPM. Yet, everyone ignored said crap films. Kong and Lovely Bones will play zero role in people's expectations for The Hobbit. Zero. Almost everyone will feel as if this is Jackson's baby and that he knows what he is doing because he did such a great job with the LOTR trilogy. Anyway, most moviegoers forgot Jackson did Kong, and especially Lovely Bones. Just like movie-goers forgot about Howard the Duck.

I guess it depends on what they can handle. Some people suggested Indiana Jones. However, the first two are pretty intense. LOTR has some epic battle scenes, but I think are safe. Same goes for Star Wars.Toy Story is a must. The Lion King. Beauty and the Beast. Most kids seem to love the first Cars. To be honest, beyond that, I have no idea.

I'm not ready for this just yet. But, yah, we need to figure something out for Best Picture category. Maybe, you lose points for every nom over and under and get bonus points if you just get it right. At this point, I think there will be 9 BP noms.

If Lincoln delivers, it still has a shot at winning next year regardless of whether or not War Horse wins. Although, War Horse's chances at a win are looking slim. Oh, and fishnets, with a $100M BP campaign, DH2 does stand a chance at a BP nom. WB just needs to get 5% of the votes. I think they will manage. I know many people here don't think DH2 will get the nom. But, I remain optimistic. Especially, again, because WB is spending $100M just to try and secure a nom. You know, if DH2 doesn't get the nom, that would be worse than a $100M film flopping at the BO. lol I do want to see The Artist, but I feel like that if it wins, that more casual movie-goers will be alienated than ever in the history of Oscar history. There are a lot of people who are interested in the Oscar race, but a silent film might go over many film-goers heads. I know some people would love for a silent film to win, but lately people are of the opinion that the Academy Awards are completely out of touch with the mainstream, and The Artist winning would only further cement that. It's not like the 90's where we got a good mix of BP winners that also had mainstream appeal. While, I do appreciate films like The Artist winning, a mainstream film needs to win and soon. I feel like the last film with strong mainstream appeal to win was The Departed and maybe to a small degree The King's Speech.

Thanks for that. You are 100% right. People are too nice to other people and let other people walk all over them. We are taught to not stand up for ourselves, so thank you for this post. Wow! That was epic! Do they play that in front of every movie. I appreciate a theater for having the balls to put something up like that.

I don't think people will be looking at Kong or Lovely Bones when it comes to The Hobbit expectations. People are expecting a film that somewhat matches the quality of LOTR. Most people consider it the best trilogy of all-time and has yet to be tarnished by a bad film *TPM*. Also, people won't compare The Hobbit to TPM. They aren't going to say, hey, I hope this doesn't suck like TPM. No, they will compare it to LOTR, and they will say, I hope this is good like the LOTR movies.The almost yen-year wait makes The Hobbit nostalgic. Many films have failed in this area such as Star Wars, Indiana Jones, and even The Godfather. I think TS3 was the only one to live up to the hype. However, TS3, while coming off two beyond well-reviewed movies, it was still not seen as serious. I mean, they were children's movies. ROTK won 11 Academy Awards. The LOTR trilogy is serious stuff. Expectations are going to be high. This is a film being compared to a movie that won 11 Academy Awards, a feat only achieved three times.For TDKR, many people are expecting it to drop in quality slightly because there is no Joker. However, Inception has caused faith that maybe, just maybe Nolan can pull off the impossible and somehow find a way to top TDK or make a film just as good. Also, TDK has a lot of quotes that have seeped into mainstream culture, most of them quotes from the Joker. LOTR has a few quotes, but I don't think as many as TDK. Also, TDK is more recent, so it is fresh in people's mind and that makes people more anxious for the film. They are both very close, but The Hobbit has a slight edge. And, for everywhere that is not the US, The Hobbit is the definite winner.Still, though, both films have a lot to live up to. I can't recall a time in BO history where we ever had anything like this. The closest was TPM, but now we are getting two films that will have hype almost at TPM levels. That is just insane.

See, even you admit he's a super troll.

Yes, it is, but they won't have more than ten nominees or less than five. I guess in a case of such close ties they would do a recount of the votes and meticulously look over placement on ballots for tie-breakers. But, I'm sure it would work out in the end.

I've watched The Hobbit trailer a lot already. Although, I have no idea which trailer I watched the most. Probably, the TPM trailer.

I've never seen this movie, but I've probably seen a 100+ YouTube clips. I love the parodies. If someone has a link to the film, please PM me. I've always been curious to see this.

I'm not the only one with The Hobbit as my number one.

Source please.Oh, and I do think that if Bane is not made easier to understand that it is an issue. And, if I was a studio exec, I would be scared to death. So, hopefully, his dialogue does get changed. And, I think it will. I am very certain the audio mix for that prologue was incomplete. For instance, a guy shoots a gun, and we don't hear him shoot the gun. As well, Bane breaks the cuffs, and we don't hear the cuffs breaking.The piece that was written could have been written by someone to get everyone all riled up and worried about the movie. We shall see. If Bane is like he is in the trailer, we should be fine though. However, having Bane like in the prologue won't be good, and I did see the prologue in IMAX.Oh, and that video was hilarious.

I'm not sure who will win at this point, but I am like 98% certain that we will be getting a BP/BD split this year.