I'm not that surprised with Everest's numbers. Its PTA was only $13k last week compared to $30k for MI4 in a similar kind of release. The Martian will kill it for good next week.
Tarantino is a dick but his recent observation about Oscarbait movies is correct. There is very little value to these movies outside of being oscarbait. Even Paul Haggis said that Crash, the baitiest of them all, shouldn't have won Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain.
http://www.ew.com/article/2015/08/27/box-office-preview-straight-outta-compton-set-third-weekend-number-one
$9 million for WAYF seems a bit high. War Room could've broken out if its theater count was bigger but $5-6 million seems like where it will end up.
If the movie is good then it can make $100 million. There are a lot of horror fans who aren't on board with horror movies that are being released nowadays. Crimson Peak has the potential to bring them back to the theaters. If it sucks then even $50 million may be a tough haul for the reasons you mentioned.
Piracy seems like an easy explanation for low ancillary revenue in China but not too long ago piracy was said to be the reason why movies weren't doing well in China and the rest of Asia. There is more piracy today than used to be back in the 90s but the box office is booming pretty much everywhere in Asia. I think there is another reason why studios don't see money from TV and home media. Maybe the Government there doesn't allow US studios to enter the home media market or something similar. Here is an article I found on 4K UHD TV sales in China.
http://4k.com/news/chinese-market-creating-biggest-impact-4k-uhd-tv-sales/
If 4K TV sales are so high in China then the home media industry must also be booming.
That ancillary revenue number for China has to go up in the near future. I don't see why a movie that makes $300 million in theaters should suddenly stop making money when it goes to DVD, TV and VOD.
He is over-reacting but his point about original movies is accurate. Audiences don't want to spend money on an unknown quantity. People who run the studios aren't morons. They rarely greenlight anything original these days because the odds are that people won't see it..
I think September 18th weekend is going to be huge because of Maze Runner and Black Mass ( 30 million+) and not Sicario. Sicario will be a platform release so it will probably have a slow build up to the wide release.
Compton is guaranteed to win the weekend. Sinister 2's reviews have ensured that it won't appeal to general audience so probably $20 million is its ceiling now. SOC should do $26-27 million easily.