James

I think this will beat that. There is really no other tentpole in October for OS audiences. Maybe Gill on the Train, but that's about it. I'm thinking around 370m.

BOX-OFFICE FORECAST - 3rd PART OF 2016 After an incredible start for the year and a slow 2nd PART, let's take a look at the final 4 months and the biggest (potential) movies. SEPTEMBER April currently holds the record for the weakest month of the year, but September might actually take that title. There is no guaranteed big hit! My guess is that the battle for the no. 1 will be between Miss Peregrine, Storks and Sully. I actually see no title going over 150.000 admissions which would be a first in 2016. OCTOBER October looks a bit stronger but not by much. Still, I bet on Inferno to be a big hit. The Da Vinci Code was the highest grossing movie of 2006, while Angels & Demons was #11 in 2009 (#7 in admissions). I think Inferno has a chance at $1m (and over 200.000 admissions). Other titles that have a (SLIGHT) chance at 150.000 admissions are The Girl on the Train and A Monster Calls. NOVEMBER November is generally a pretty strong month and this year is no exception. We start strong, with Doctor Strange, which should be able to top 150.000 admissions. The next weekend we have Arrival which might surprise considering we didn't have the usual big Sci-Fi Fall tentpole this year (Gravity, The Martian, Interstellar). but it all depends on the marketing. I'm gonna be ballsy and predict over 175.000 admissions. Then Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them arrives. No Harry Potter movie has ever topped $1m, but DH2 came very close back in 2011 (and was #10 for the year). But that's not really surprising. The market exploded in the last 3-4 years and 2016 looks to be double in terms of admissions compared to 2011. And most Potter movies ended up in Top 10 of their respective years. So Fantastic Beasts should have a nice chance at $1m, even with a less favorable exchange rate. And finally, we have Moana, which could also challenge $1m. So we have 4 titles with $1m potential. If all should hit that mark that would be a new monthly record. DECEMBER And now the biggest month of the year (or second biggest - January is getting bigger and bigger). That being said, the first half is quite empty, which might be a good thing, considering the crowded November. It will allow for some late legs for the holdovers. On December 16 we have Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which is the only movie left that has a shot at being the highest grossing title of the year. Star Wars: The Force Awakens is currently the second biggest movie ever, at $3.25m. It was also the second most attended movie of 2015, with 601.242 admissions, behind only Furious 7's 651.232. Rogue One won't match that, but it should be able to make over $2m. Also on December 16, we have Sing. Illumination is becoming a force to be reckoned with in the market. Minions is the most attended animation ever, with 434.415 tickets sold and The Secret Life of Pets looks to end it's run with well over 200.000 admissions. So methinks Sing will sell over 150.000 tickets, especially with Christmas to help it's legs. We have no big release for the Christmas weekend (which is odd), but on the final frame of 2016 we have Passengers and Why Him? My guess is Passengers will be huge (175.000+ admissions), while Why Him? should do decent business (maybe 100.000+). However, considering the weekend report will come on Monday, January 2, these two titles will be officially considered 2017 releases. So an overall strong end of the year. If these titles manage to resonate with audiences the way I think they will, then admissions could hit the 12.5m border this year (after last year's record-breaking 11.1m).

@Corpse, I am wondering, does Fantastic Beasts have ANY chance to win the year? Japan was the biggest OS market for 5 of the 8 HP movies. Also, if not, I see the top opening of the year is SW7 with 1.24b. Can FB beat that?

@IndustriousAngel do you have admissions figures for OW/Total for the Harry Potter series? I am curious what FB will do since Germany was always in Top 3 OS markets for HP.

Can anybody tell me what competition Fantastic Beasts will face in November/beginning of December? I'm guessing WB will manage to get it to open either on the OW or a week later. They did that for all late Potter movies. Is 100m possible? What about 150m (assuming, of course, the movie will have Potter-like quality)?

FB looks to follow DH2's patter of opening everywhere at once. DH2 opened in every market on the same weEkend, except for China. FB is the same, excepting Japan, which opens One week later (and, of course, China, which we don't have a release date for). Without Japan, DH2 made 292m on OW. Also, excluding China, it had a x2.86 multiplier from it's OS OW. FB should be able to manage a 150m+ OS weekend, which would be an absolutely massive fall from Potter (vs. 292m for DH2 without Japan). Let's say it has a typical only a x2.8 HP multi. That gets it to 420m. With 100m from China and 50m from Japan you get 570m. But let's say we choose DH1 as a comparison since that opened on the same date as FB. That one made 205m on OW OS, but it didn't have France (which opened to over 20m one week later) and a bunch of smaller markets, nor did it have 3D. So from it's OW without France it had a almost a 3x multiplier. HP has been really consistent with their OS multipliers, just like DOM. In any way, people are so fixated on the ER that they completely forget HP didn't benefit almost at all from the emerging markets, China especially (you'd think that would be obvious looking at the Hobbit/LOTR situation). I see no scenario where FB goes under 100m in China. 150m is also quite possible if the movie is good and I have no doubt it will be. That would be 90m DH2 didn't have. But aside from China there are also a bunch of smaller markets that, despite ER, have increased a hell lot in the last few years.

I know this was discussed many times, but nobody gives a shit where the money comes from, so the only figure that matters is WW, even if companies get a bigger % from the US. Warcraft lost a bit of money in it's theatrical run, but I have n doubt it will become profitable with home video. Fant4stic was an utter bomb.

But it's ridiculous to call it a massive bomb. And especially to put it in the same category with Fant4stic lol. That is some massive bullshit bias.

Lol wut?

Are those 500-550m figures adjusted for 3D? I find it hard to believe that HP1 adjusts to only 500m despite being the biggest ticket seller of the series. Also, I think people are failing to see that this series is just as cross generational as SW. Anecdotal evidence, but HP book rights here were bought last year by another publisher after the last one was bankrupt after the series ended. And they are once again topping the charts. I've seen two little kids reading them in train a week ago. 500m for a spin-off to the biggest franchise in the world would be incredibly disappointing. That would also mean brutal drops in all big Potter markets (Japan, UK, France, Germany), plus barely an increase over DH2 in China despite that market being 4-5x times bigger than in 2011.

I am expecting UK + China + Japan alone to do at least 250m. France + Germany = 90m Russia + Italy + Spain + Australia = 100m Rest of Europe = 40m South Korea + the rest of Asia = 40m Latin America + Mexico + Central America = 80m That's 600m which is the absolute floor methinks. I used very conservative numbers. If things go well and it is a great movie I see no reason why UK+ China + Japan couldn't combine for more than 300m (90m in UK, 120m in China and 90m in Japan). Same for the other markets.

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE We just had a ridiculous week, most attended one since February, thanks to Suicide Squad, which is a phenomenon. - INSANITY. That's the only word to describe what is happening with Suicide Squad. After having one of the highest opening weekends ever, the DC movie dropped a light 45%, which by far is the best drop of the year for a CBM. But the big news is it's absolutely insane week days. In the Monday-Thursday frame Suicide Squad sold almost as many tickets as it sold on it's opening weekend (!!!). It's weekly frame is the biggest for any superhero movie ever, despite opening way lower than Batman v Superman and Deadpool. For comparison, after 10 days in play: In only 10 days Suicide Squad made as much (in USD) as Captain America: Civil War did in it's entire run. And the reason is simple: the WOM is through the roof. Suicide Squad still holds at 8.2 on CineMagia, which is higher than comparable titles. Next week it will have tougher competition, with Ben-Hur (which I expect will be big), Pete's Dragon and War Dogs, so a drop over 50% should be expected. At this point it is a sure thing that Suicide Squad will become the highest grossing and most attended CBM, titles currently held by Deadpool. It also has a good chance of becoming the first $2m grosser this year and it will also be the highest grossing movie of the year if Star Wars: Rogue One doesn't surprise. - The Secret Life of Pets had to settle for 2nd again, but it's 42% drop is way better than Minions' 61% one. Of course, Minions was already past $1m through this point, but that doesn't take away from Pets great achievement. The latest Illumination flick now stands at a great $486k and it is locked to make over $1m. - Lights Out was the biggest newcomer, opening with 14.215 adm and $62k which is weak, but pretty standard for the genre. - Bad Moms had another stunning hold (-7%) and now stands at a good $293k. - Jason Bourne made up for it's drop from last week with a great one this week (-17%). Total is a decent $357k and it should inch past $500k by the end of it's run. Nothing to write home about, but not a flop either. - Ice Age: Collision Course continues to hold well, staying almost flat from last week (-7%). It now passed the 200.000 admission border and reached $971k. It will blow past $1m in the next few days and it will be one of the highest grossing movies of the year, but even so it will register a massive 100.000 adm drop from the last entry in the series. - Sausage Party opened in 7h with 8.921 adm and $41k. That's a bomb right there. - Hell or High Water debuted with 4.501 adm and $22k. Yet another bomb. - The Legend of Tarzan continues it's great run easing only 13% to reach $780k. - And Star Trek Beyond closes the top, registering it's first decent drop (-26%), but the total is a weak $329k after 4 weeks in play. As you can see, all movies had great holds and that's thanks to the extended holiday frame. This Monday was The Virgin Mary holiday and pretty much everyone was off work, but theaters ran at full capacity. Add to that the Orange Wednesday and week days should once again be massive, but this coming weekend expect bigger drops for all movies, as the market balances itself. Top 10 Next week's releases: - Ben-Hur - Pete's Dragon - War Dogs - Barbie: Star Light Adventure - Tudo Que Aprendemos Juntos Ben-Hur is the type of movie that does very well in the market. Anything less than 30.000 admissions for it would be a disappointment. Right now I'd say 35.000 - 40.000 for the three-day weekend frame. Pete's Dragon and War Dogs should both make a run at 20.000 admissions. The other two movies will open under 10.000. Top 20 Highest Grossing Movies of 2016: ***The bolded titles are still playing 2016 is running 16.5% ahead of 2015 through the same point.

Lol, what with the butthurt around here? The trailer shows too much, but it looks pretty good. Just because it has a young cast it doesn't mean the movie will be bad.

Looking t the trailers for this again I am excited! It will be so huge here. This type of movies are always among the biggest for the year.

Am I the only one who thinks War Dogs might have a decent opening? I'm thinking around 25m.

So 45m weekend for SS.

Lol, Jahns kinda destroyed PD.

People are so convinced that Moana is doing 300m lol. I will love the meltdowns on that one.

Who the FUCK writes those articles?!!!!! 41-48m range????

OMG YES! I love these movies! Second one is my favorite!

It's getting IMAX today?

UPDATE 2: After Orange Wednesday I thought Suicide Squad would slow down a bit, but no such thing. Sellouts keep popping out everywhere and entering it's second weekend many theaters actually give it more showtimes than it had on OW!!! That is insane. Those theaters were probably caught by surprise on OW. The week days must be truly massive for that to happen. Can't wait for the Monday numbers. I'm starting to wonder if SS might drop less than 50%. It would be the only superhero movie this year to do so. The grade on CineMagia is still 8.2.

10.2-10.3m is where it should land methinks.

Of course not. You bias will come in the way. It will stop millions of people from seeing it...

Lol, just checked out and there's a chance this makes more on the second weekend than BvS did (51.3m), despite opening 32m lower. It would need a 61.6% drop at most, which is far from impossible.