yeah I also think Weathering With You is gonna miss the nomination, its buzz is non-existent and being mostly inferior to Your Name and having a really late release date probably doesn't help.
I agree with the top 4 choices but I'd replace Missing Link with How To Train Your Dragon 3. the first 2 were both nominated with the 2nd one winning the globe. though having 3 sequel movies out of the 5 nominations will probably not look very great so we'll see.