MovieMan89

Depends on how big each is. I'd say there's only room for three really big ones in that demo at the most. Although Strange sounds like it could be darker than typical MCU so may not be as family appealing.

Home's surprise success and KFP3 being big OS should put them back above water at least. But then Trolls is likely to be a bomb in that release slot, since next holiday is the most over-crowded ever for the family audience. And Croods 2 is a giant question mark. Still not sure about there being any real sequel demand for that one, especially if there wasn't for Dragon 2. The television branching is probably smart, since their upcoming animated feature slate is still pretty risky overall.

Yeah, there is no denying the holiday vibe of the trailer, but this would get slaughtered next holiday. It is already bound to be a bloodbath as it is for family films if some things don't move. You have Trolls, Moana, Fantastic Beasts, Sing, Jumanji, and Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children all targeting the same holiday family audience. Not to mention the inevitable family appeal of Doctor Strange and Rogue One. Either we will have a couple huge ones and tons of big flops or nothing will be huge and it will be a spread the wealth situation. Probably the former though.

If that trailer doesn't look like classic Spielberg I don't know what does. Little kid is already annoying me though. So yeah, classic Spielberg.

Again, the marketing last winter for the original date was better than the more recent stuff. Just invoked a sense of fear and panic among the crew and showed off the money shots. Didn't really try to vilify the whale as much, and the less dialouge approach for the early marketing was definitely better. And seriously, its competition in March would have been Home, Cinderella, and Insurgent. None of which were really direct competition. It could've opened well, or at least twice as well as the 15 it will be lucky to pull now.

1. What will Heart of the Sea gross OW? 14.390m 2. What will Legend gross this weekend? 313,245 3. What will Krampus' percentage drop be? -52.025% 4. What will Creed gross on Friday? 2.605m 5. What will Peanuts' Friday increase be? +243.333% 6. What will Macbeth's PTA be this weekend? 2,920 7. What will be the difference in weekend gross between Secret in Their Eyes and Love the Coopers? 161,950 8. What will Spectre's total be by end of Sunday? 189.405m 9. What will Hunger Games gross on Sunday? 3.525m 10. How many positions will separate Spotlight and Victor Frankenstein? 11 11. What will be the gross difference between Good Dinosaur's Friday and Saturday? 2.966m 12. What will Night Before's percentage drop be this weekend? -23.777% 13. What will Trumbo's Sunday percentage drop be? -36.325% 14. How much will The Martian's gross differ from the film that finishes the weekend in 10th place? (wonder what would happen if The Martian finishes 10th) 845,000 15. What will Jem and the Holograms gross this weekend? (I want to keep tradition of having the one question everyone gets right ) $500 million, but it will turn out to merely be a hologram and not actual money Placements: 2. MJ2 4. Creed 7. The Night Before 9. Spotlight 12. Love the Coopers

Doesn't matter, it's officially out of the race with those reviews. Getting nommed would be statistically very hard with that kind of critical reception. Winning impossible.

I actually think the OW would have been a solid 30-40m back in its original March release date. I thought they were doing a good job marketing it this time last year and last March had almost zero direct competition for it. However, from what I've heard about it it doesn't sound like it was destined to ever have very good WOM.

OW: $305m DOM: $1.05b WW: $2.79b

Ok, this is very early again for two reasons: 1) It's a wee bit huge as it's probably the biggest week ever in at least the Winter Game if not summer 2) I have a friend staying with me from this evening until next Wednesday so I wouldn't be able to guarantee putting a set of questions together between now and then. So... Here goes: As always all questions refer to the top 12 and are worth 1000 point UOS 1. Will Star Wars' OW exceed $150M? YES! 2. Will Star Wars' OW exceed $200M? 2000 YES!! 3. Will Star Wars' OW exceed $250M? 3000 YES!!! 4. Will Star Wars' OW exceed $300M? YES!!!! 5. Will Star Wars' Opening Day (including previews) exceed $100M? 2000 YES 6. Will Star Wars' Opening Day (including previews) exceed 33.33% of it's OW total? YES 7. Will Alvin open to more than $15M? NO 8. Will Alvin's OW be at least 5% of Star Wars' OW? 2000 NO 9. Will Sisters Open in the top 3? YES 10. Will Alvin and Sisters' OW combine to more than $25M? NO 11. Will Star Wars' OW exceed 85% of the entire weekend gross of all films? YES 12. Will Star Wars' OW exceed 90% of the entire weekend gross of all films? 3000 NO 13. Will Heart of the Sea drop less than 65%? NO 14. Will Hunger Games stay in the top 5? 2000 YES 15. Will Creed have the best drop in the top 10 (excluding anything that may be expanding)? NO 16. Will Extraction have a PTA above $2500? NO 17. Will The Good Dinosaur have a Friday Increase of at least 190% YES 18. Will Star Wars' Thursday Previews total exceed the total gross of 2nd to 5th places' 3 day weekend? 3000 YES 19. Will Chipmunks have a better Sunday drop than Peanuts? NO 20. Will The Night Before drop less than 35% this weekend? NO 21. Name any one film in the top 15 that drops more than 70% (or state none)? 3000 NONE 22. Will The Good Dinosaur cross $100M? 2000 NO 23. Will Mojin: The Lost Legend enter in the top 18? YES 24. Will Peanuts have a weekend above $1M? YES 25. Will Star Wars cross $400M WW by the end of Sunday? YES 26. Will Star Wars cross $500M WW by the end of Sunday? 3000 YES 27. Will Brooklyn end the weekend with 400k of Spotlight? NO 28. Will Frankenstein have a weekend below 125k? 2000 29. Name the film that finishes 4th this weekend? The Good Dinosaur 30. Were there enough Star Wars questions in this week's section? NO! Bonuses 20/30 - 2000 21/30 - 3000 22/30 - 4000 23/30 - 5000 24/30 - 6000 25/30 - 8000 26/30 - 10000 27/30 - 12000 28/30 - 15000 29/30 - 20000 30/30 - 25000 Part 2 1. Fine! What will the OW actually be? 303.777 2. What will Alvin and Sisters' combined OW be? 16.985 3. What will Hunger Games total gross be by sunday? Part 3. 1. Star Wars 3. Sisters 5. MJ2 8. Heart of the Sea 10. Spectre 12. Brooklyn 3/6 - 2000 4/6 - 4000 5/6 - 6000 6/6 - 10000

Holy shit Baumer! Had no idea you decided to hop on the crazy train too! Last I saw you were still saying 600 was more than high enough. At any rate, welcome aboard, we have cookies.

I'm almost certain Keaton and Ruffalo had a very similar amount of screentime, along with McAdams (who was also good). No one was really lead, especially since the plot didn't really revolve around any of the movie characters. Ruffalo just stood out way more than Keaton, so I can see that making it seem like he was the lead. If anything, that's a testament to a great supporting performance. I think Sly felt similarly like a lead, despite clearly being supporting.

Really weak field this year, I'd say at this point he's in. The question now is can he win? I've seen all the contenders except Hardy, and I personally think Ruffalo beats everyone else in contention by a long shot. But Sly would probably be my second choice. Absolute joke Keaton is leading on Gold Derby right now. There was nothing to the role and nothing to the performance. If he does win it will merely be as a make up for last year. But Sly could indeed be the frontrunner given perfect combo of factors of little competition, a very well done performance, and the whole career legacy/never won thing going for him. I can see it happening.

Quite frankly, nothing seems locked outside of Spotlight, The Revenant, Carol, and I guess The Martian. Could be all kinds of shake ups by the time noms happen.

SW over all August wide releases combined, all September wide releases combined, all October wide releases combined, all other December wide releases combined, and all January wide releases combined is pretty much locked. Hell, if it goes over 1b it could even come close to all November wide releases combined.

If audience reception mirrors critics, that will be what sinks it at the BO. The Fighter and AH both had 7.8x multis off of their wide release OW, and SLP had a staggered rollout, but the most it ever made in a weekend was 10m and finished with 130+. So his movies rely on fantastic WOM to do so well.

Wonder how this reception affects its box office now? DOR's last 3 films have all become big hits via fantastic WOM. So if that's absent for this it could be in trouble, especially with SW.

What a strange year. Now Joy's out of the picture and I can honestly say that having seen Spotlight, Room, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, and Brooklyn none of them seem remotely like a BP winner to me. I guess Spotlight the most so, but just because I can't see the others standing any chance. Can't see how Revenant wins either. Maybe Carol will end up the frontrunner? Or if Tarantino can knock if out of the park it might finally be his year, but I'm very weary of the Academy actually going as far to award him. Getting nominated is kind of a battle in itself for him. If they weren't so bullheaded about animation IO would probably be the deserved front-runner.

Well that escalated (aka went up in flames) quickly. Bye bye Joy, thanks for playing.

Not particularly good reviews for something that was supposed to be one of the frontunners. In fact, it's looking to be the worst reviewed of the 10-12 movies in contention for BP.

My problem with saying Spotlight is the frontrunner is that nothing about it said "BP winner" to me. It doesn't seem like the kind of movie that actually wins and I would have never guessed in a million years it was considered the early frontrunner if I didn't know already from the internet.

Yeah but KFP2 and Puss in Boots were both well received big commercial successes. TGD is Pixar's second worst reviewed and their first box office flop. If it were the only Pixar film of the year I think it would make it, but I can't see it happening with IO. Love to be wrong though, since TGD is only a hair beneath IO for me personally.

Huge African American female appeal if my screening was anything to go by.

If they wonder why it flopped so hard they may want to start by wondering why they made the tagline 3x bigger than the title and put it above and center on the poster.

It did just occur to me that dinosaur movies aimed at kids have never really been big at the box office. The Land Before Time was very profitable in its day, but still had a very modest 100m adjusted run. Dinosaur and We're Back were big under-performers at the time (though Dinosaur will end up being more profitable than TGD). Then there was Walking With Dinosaurs a couple years ago. Basically the only "big" kid movie involving dinos is Ice Age 3, and I'm sure that was because it was part of the Ice Age franchise not because they added dinos.