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Weekend Estimate #s FF6: 34.5 NYSM 27.8 AE: 27.3 TH3: 15.9

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X2 and X3 adjust to $283m and $284m.   Without 3D.

 

Again, that was the PEAK of the franchise. I don't see anyone claiming a Spider-Man movie is going to make $500+ million like the first one. Batman is the only franchise that has been able to actually match or exceed the ticket sales of older movies that were already very successful in the first place. And you could make a pretty compelling argument that the only reason this happened was because of Ledger's death.

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You're hatred for ASM won't necessarily translate to box office reality.ASM2 has a great release date, more dramatically/visually interesting villains than The Lizard, NO ORIGIN STORY to bitch about, way better costume, first summer event status, bigger target market than Trek 2, four quadrant potential, etc.It ain't dropping.

Good point on no origin. Lots of people probably skipped ASM just because of that
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I guess but I don't see why it would hurt it. Also, I personally believe Cap 2 will get the least amount of Avengers affect since it is coming two years later and I think to most people is one of the more less interesting characters

 

 

I agree that it'll get less of an Avengers effect than Thor, but I think it can hurt TASM2 if it's perceived as the first big superhero movie of the year. (Doubly so since it will also be the first big Marvel superhero movie of the year, so there's not even a Marvel/DC split it can benefit from.) Since it comes out only a month before, that means while people are watching TASM2 commercials on tv, they'll actually be going out to see CATWS in the theater.

 

But I'm not saying TASM2 is going to flop because of Cap. It will stand or fall on its own, but Cap is going to steal some of it's thunder.

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Again, that was the PEAK of the franchise. I don't see anyone claiming a Spider-Man movie is going to make $500+ million like the first one. Batman is the only franchise that has been able to actually match or exceed the ticket sales of older movies that were already very successful in the first place. And you could make a pretty compelling argument that the only reason this happened was because of Ledger's death.

 

True, but Spider-Man sold about 70 million tickets.  X2 and X3 sold about 35 million.  How many movies this decade have sold 70 million, 5?

 

This will drop in attendance and could still make $300m.

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Again, that was the PEAK of the franchise. I don't see anyone claiming a Spider-Man movie is going to make $500+ million like the first one. Batman is the only franchise that has been able to actually match or exceed the ticket sales of older movies that were already very successful in the first place. And you could make a pretty compelling argument that the only reason this happened was because of Ledger's death.

 

DOFP storyline has the potential to resurrect XM franchise. It has the scale and scope like TA and certainly has the potential for 300M, if it's good.  ;)  :D

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Again, that was the PEAK of the franchise. I don't see anyone claiming a Spider-Man movie is going to make $500+ million like the first one. Batman is the only franchise that has been able to actually match or exceed the ticket sales of older movies that were already very successful in the first place. And you could make a pretty compelling argument that the only reason this happened was because of Ledger's death.

 

 

How do you know that was the peak?

 

Usually the peak of a franchise is a big opening with great legs (Spider-man, TDK, Star Trek, DMC).

 

X3 had a big opening but half-decent legs. The franchise still hasn't had it's peak.

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How do you know that was the peak?

 

Usually the peak of a franchise is a big opening with great legs (Spider-man, TDK, Star Trek, DMC).

 

X3 had a big opening but half-decent legs. The franchise still hasn't had it's peak.

 

Chalk it up to a wasted opportunity. If X3 was as good or better than X2, then we would've seen the peak of the franchise.

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  • Founder / Operator

Yeah, there is next to nothing interesting box office-wise about next summer. Our only little interest is whether the holy trinity of Vin Diesel, Dwayne Johnson, and Jason Statham can give Universal their first 100M OW. If it gets IMAX screens back like its predecessor missed out on, it might have an edge.

 

Agreed, except I will say that Days of Future Past could be interesting box office-wise too. Only if Singer and co. really hit it out of the park, though.

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  • Founder / Operator

Once you get into Part 4s, the interest dies down and audience is ready to move on (with rare exceptions). Transformers 4 is going to offer more of the same (like it always has, to be fair) except with Wahlberg instead of Shia. But is that enough to keep the domestic gross at over $300M? I don't think so.

 

Some of us here are old enough to remember the Godzilla hype circa 1997. Few have trully matched that. And yet it disappointed when it opened. Seems like WB/Legendary banking on the masses wanting more giant monster mayham post Pacific Rim. A flawed strategy IMO.

 

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes feels like an unnecessary sequel to a surprise popular hit. But just because the originating film won people over (Possibly due to lowered expectations), doesn't mean they want more.

 

My gut says Jupiter Ascending and Hercules are going to be big surprises.

 

Completely agreed, with possible exception to Jupiter Ascending -- but that's it.

 

Part of me isn't completely ruling out a release date change for Winter Soldier to summer. It's crowded for that audience, but, if Marvel knows they have a good movie on their hands... who knows?

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  • Founder / Operator

He gets some great moments- all six guys do- but the MVP is McBride. There's a shouting match he has with Franco that will be one of the year's funniest scenes.

 

I know exactly the scene you're referring to as it was screened at CinemaCon, and I completely agree.

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