REVISED Weekend Estimates 6/14--6/16: Man of Steel OW $116.7M($128.7M including WM)

[baumer]

Can someone in the US show me proof that u still have midnight shows?

[#ED]

Ed, change ur avatar already? So with a 36mil estimation, Monday should be at worst $10mil. 

 

Yeah, I still support the movie, but 

 

I don't always change my avatar, but when I do, it's Dos Equis.

[Shawn Robbins]

The Wal-Mart argument is our new Puerto Rico, IMO. I can see both sides of the argument because until this year, I bet it would have been universally agreed that the money should be excluded from the weekend. But since the studios started changing that standard, it blurs every line in the book. It completely violates any sense of consistency with the nature of every movie this year having Thursday preview grosses included in Friday.

 

If we're talking about holding one standard, I personally prefer the money to be excluded. But that standard would have to go on in perpetuity and that clearly won't happen going forward.

 

The one good thing coming out of this is that we know exactly how much money WB made from Wal-Mart. But as long as they had released that figure anyway, I don't think lumping it in with Friday would really distort things that much. The best move they made was releasing the $12m and $9m figures separately.

Edited June 17, 2013 by ShawnMR

[RichWS]

lol no one cares here probs but what a wonderful average The Bling ring has

 

It did well. I have surprisingly little interest in it. Too many other movies I wanna spend money on. I still have Before Midnight and Mud waiting for me.

[redfirebird2008]

Thats 100% wrong. There were no midnight shows in Canada. All our shows were 7-10 pm. Midnight are basically gone. They have been since Aurora.

 

No it is not 100% wrong. I looked at all of my usual theaters in Texas and there were ZERO Thursday night shows, not even the Wal-Mart shows. Midland, Houston, Lubbock. Hell, Las Vegas, where I actually saw the film Friday night, only had midnight shows available and zero Thursday shows. All midnights. This was NOT the case with Iron Man 3 where the shows were 10 PM or whatever. You should not assume that Canada is a good representative of North America in general. After all, you guys have cheap Tuesdays when a vast majority of the United States does NOT have that.

[Chewy]

Can someone in the US show me proof that u still have midnight shows?

 

For MoS in the US the only Thursday previews were the Walmarts, everything else was midnight only

[Sam]

The Wal-Mart argument is definitely our new Puerto Rico, IMO. I can see both sides of the argument because until this year, I bet it would have been universally agreed that the money should be excluded from the weekend. But since the studios started changing that standard, it blurs every line in the book. It completely violates any sense of consistency with the nature of every movie this year having Thursday preview grosses included in Friday.

 

If we're talking about holding one standard, I personally prefer the money to be excluded. But that standard would have to go on in perpetuity and that clearly won't happen going forward.

I agree with Shawn. Well, I see a lot of our members had expressed they wish that studios grow a pair and start reporting them separately. Now that WB did, we're still complaining 

[redfirebird2008]

Can someone in the US show me proof that u still have midnight shows?

 

We can't go back in time since Fandango won't let us, but I promise you when I clicked on Thursday for a number of theaters in Texas and Las Vegas, the only shows available were midnight Friday. It was definitely different for Man of Steel than it has been for a bunch of other movies lately.

[#ED]

So basically MoS could have had a 56M OD.

[Blankments]

 

#ManOfSteel had super slim SAT-SUN drop of 0.07% thx to Fathers Day love. Revised wknd $116.7M, $128.7M since THU.

https://twitter.com/giteshpandya/status/346629090893250561

 

 

Cavill was supposed to be Bond.

[Louis Lux]

A sign of good legs.

 

But the Sunday hold could only make the Monday drop look a lot bigger than it should.

 

It will look big BUT IT WILL BE NORMAL.

 

12M is expected for Monday.

 

And the movie was expected to drop 10%-15% on Sunday by most here...

A monday in the 15M-20M is not out of the table just yet.

Edited June 17, 2013 by Louis Lux

[Chewy]

It must've been part of their deal with Walmart, because WM was marking up their tickets by a buck or so. So WB didn't schedule other preview shows to compete with them, aside from the midnight shows

[Shawn Robbins]

So basically MoS could have had a 56M OD.

 

Maybe. I think a more reasonable case would have been around $50m had those 7pm attendees not had the option of an early viewing and went to midnight instead. Since we don't know exactly how many tickets Wal-Mart couldn't sell, there's no way to ever know.

 

File it under the same "unknown box office possibilities" as Aurora last year. We'll always debate them, but we'll never really have all the answers.

Edited June 17, 2013 by ShawnMR

[mcclaine]

As far i know, all movies since the Aurora tragedy have move the midnight screenings to start earlier. And all those movies have count the money as friday money. If we don't count this, we shouldn't be counting "midnights" from Iron Man 3, Hobbit, BD2, FF6, etc, etc.

[redfirebird2008]

It must've been part of their deal with Walmart, because WM was marking up their tickets by a buck or so. So WB didn't schedule other preview shows to compete with them, aside from the midnight shows

 

Yes, there was a report that Wal-Mart was granted exclusivity. Sounds to me like Canada broke that deal, but here in the U.S. it was midnight only from everything I checked.

[junkshop36]

Every big movie that comes out here in the US has midnights. They just happen to have the late night 7, 8, 9 or 10pm screenings the night before as well. IMO, putting the grosses from those screenings into the opening day and therefore the OW, is not right; but as I've said, the studious will do whatever they want in this regard.

[#ED]

Regardless, 116M is amazing!

[Dementeleus]

For MoS in the US the only Thursday previews were the Walmarts, everything else was midnight only

Which, IMO, makes the MOS numbers even more impressive. Having a single set of 7pm shows at certain theaters (and then traditional midnights) is very different than starting all shows at 8:00pm and having them run every half-hour or hour all the way to midnight.

[redfirebird2008]

Every big movie that comes out here in the US has midnights. They just happen to have the late night 7, 8, 9 or 10pm screenings the night before as well. IMO, putting the grosses from those screenings into the opening day and therefore the OW, is not right; but as I've said, the studious will do whatever they want in this regard.

 

It's not right, but WB did the correct thing in this situation. It will be a lot easier for us to figure out how the film is performing from here on out relative to its opening weekend. The deal with Wal-Mart was very good for WB, but it was not a true reflection of demand from the public.

 

NotFabio reported that Wal-Mart tickets were selling around 30% of the number of tickets of regular midnight shows. If that held true across the country, then that would be around $2.7m in Wal-Mart tickets that the public actually bought. Meaning you've got $9.3m of extra money added to the film's gross that it didn't really earn from the public. So that's why I'm just treating the $12m as an added bonus. Anything it made from the $9m midnights and the rest of the weekend is legit, so you can use those numbers to figure out multipliers and so forth. Just tack on the $12m at the end.

[RichWS]

Can someone in the US show me proof that u still have midnight shows?

 

There were zero shows before 12:01 in NYC, and we don't have Walmart.