Weekend Estimates: The Hobbit - 73.6M | Frozen - 22.2M | Madea - 16M

[Elessar]

31m best case? That's fucking terrible.

 

And i'm not sure about better WOM, there seems to be a lot of people bummed by that ending.

[a2k]

If it does 31 mil, it's 17.4% less than the first movie's friday (37.5).

that would be an improvement over the day, as the midnights were off by 32%

[Hiccup]

Oh and also time for some classic film theory:

 

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - 107M

Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas - 27M

Hours - 17M

 

We actually looked at the grosses of AUJ and whatever the last Madea movie was before predicting. Everyone except me said a Hobbit increase up to at least 96M. Also, I made a $5 bet with someone that Hours would not be released in more than 1000 theaters. They were insisting anything less than 2000 theaters would be intense disrespect for Paul Walker.... Whatevs, they just paid for a movie for me

 

[Elessar]

Yeah but that's best case. How much are the odds for that happening?

[Hiccup]

Friday- 31M

Saturday- 23.3M

Sunday- 16.5M

Weekend- 70.8M

 

Friday- 26M

Saturday- 19.5M

Sunday- 13.9M

Weekend- 59.4M

 

This is if it follows AUJ's drops. 

Edited December 14, 2013 by Hiccup

[Elessar]

I think (hope) it'll drop less on saturday than AUJ.

[Plain Old Tele]

Friday- 31M

Saturday- 23.3M

Sunday- 16.5M

Weekend- 70.8M

 

Friday- 26M

Saturday- 19.5M

Sunday- 13.9M

Weekend- 59.4M

 

Your Sat bumps look weak. I think it'll be stronger than that.

[Hiccup]

Is this gonna pull a Sherlock Holmes 2 on us. 

[Hiccup]

I think (hope) it'll drop less on saturday than AUJ.

 

If it follows Sherlock Holmes 2 and stays flat on Saturday it will end with 70-71M with the 26M number and 84M with the 31M number. I highly doubt it will stay flat but it better not drop 25% like AUJ. 

[Hiccup]

Your Sat bumps look weak. I think it'll be stronger than that.

 

That is if it follows AUJ's drops. 

[Plain Old Tele]

If it follows Sherlock Holmes 2 and stays flat on Saturday it will end with 70-71M with the 26M number and 84M with the 31M number. I highly doubt it will stay flat but it better not drop 25% like AUJ. 

 

But midnights are softer. Go Friday day-> Saturday. AUJ jumped 15%. I think DOS has a chance to jump 15-20%.

[John Marston]

Think Saturday drops won't be as harsh as last year

[Elessar]

If it follows Sherlock Holmes 2 and stays flat on Saturday it will end with 70-71M with the 26M number and 84M with the 31M number. I highly doubt it will stay flat but it better not drop 25% like AUJ. 

 

It won't stay flat but it better not drop 25% or else it's screwed.

 

EDIT:

Just noticed i pretty much said what you said. lol

Edited December 14, 2013 by Elessar

[JohnnY]

That's a boring opening, almost as boring as the first Hobbit movie.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

It won't stay flat but it better not drop 25% or else it's screwed.

 

EDIT:

Just noticed i pretty much said what you said. lol

 

Ban?

[a2k]

DOS expected to gross, 26-30 over friday and 62-68 mil over the weekend

Source : http://variety.com/2013/film/news/hobbit-desolation-of-smaug-lagging-behind-forecasts-with-less-than-70-million-1200953903/

[Hiccup]

But midnights are softer. Go Friday day-> Saturday. AUJ jumped 15%. I think DOS has a chance to jump 15-20%.

 

That will give it a 62M opening then with the 26M and 78.4M with the 31M number. Personally I think it should do 28M on Friday and finish with 67M for the weekend. 

[Plain Old Tele]

DOS expected to gross, 26-30 over friday and 62-68 mil over the weekend

Source : http://variety.com/2013/film/news/hobbit-desolation-of-smaug-lagging-behind-forecasts-with-less-than-70-million-1200953903/

 

So within the same range as Rth, but their IMs are janky. If it does 30 Friday it won't go sub-70 for the weekend.

[Hiccup]

Right now I am happy with anything over 70M. it can't go below 65M. Then it is in serious trouble. 

[Heretic]

Isn't there a big snowstorm in the US tomorrow? Could have some effect on Saturday increase.