Transformers Age of Extinction: 1.05B (300 mil in China!!)

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

Regardless of whether or not it hits my prediction of 1b OS, it will be the biggest movie of the year by far.

That's locked!

Nothing can stop it!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Predicted totals based on the openings:

 

DOM ---- 250m (2.5x)

China ---- 250m (2.5x)

Korea ----- 45m (2.3x)

Russia ---- 40m (2x)

Current OS - C-K-R ------ 140m (2x)

 

Europe - R ----- 100m (TF3 was 160m)

LA + Jp -------- 100m

 

Total = 250 + 250 + 85 + 140 + 100 + 100 = 925m

 

Unless it breaks out in more markets (unlikely given how it dropped in opened developed markets), 1B could still not happen.

[Goffe]

90m OW China +61%

21m OW Russia +29%

21m OW South Korea -1%

10m OW Australia -25%

8m OW Taiwan +87%

 

less than 6.5m OWPhilipines +19%Malasya +30%Hong Kong -5%Singapore +16%

 

% from TF3 opening.

 

that's not amazing opening like some are saying, it opened in all markets that had a chance of increasing.

Edited June 29, 2014 by Goffe

[Emirazza]

90m OW China +61%

21m OW Russia -29%

21m OW South Korea -1%

10m OW Australia -25%

8m OW Taiwan +87%

 

less than 6.5m OWPhilipines +19%Malasya +30%Hong Kong -5%Singapore +16%

 

% from TF3 opening.

 

that's not amazing opening like some are saying, it opened in all markets that had a chance of increasing.

Isn't 16.9 the OW for TF3 in Russia?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

90m OW China +61%

21m OW Russia -29%

21m OW South Korea -1%

10m OW Australia -25%

8m OW Taiwan +87%

 

less than 6.5m OWPhilipines +19%Malasya +30%Hong Kong -5%Singapore +16%

 

% from TF3 opening.

 

that's not amazing opening like some are saying, it opened in all markets that had a chance of increasing.

I think only people who dont really know OS box office consider it amazing.

[Donald]

It will hit 1 billion no matter what any of u say

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

I think only people who dont really know OS box office consider it amazing.

It is amazing because it didn't open in any european market or in any market of Latin America.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It opened in all TF-friendly markets (those are also markets where overal box office is still increasing).

 

Europe ? Are you kidding ? Male action films are basically dead in Europe. TF3 is the highest grossing male driven sci-fi action film in Europe excluding Russia) with 160m in past three years. TF4 would be lucky to reach 100m there, which is still one of the highest numbers of the genre for past three years.

 

Similar to LA and Japan.

[Fullbuster]

Isn't 16.9 the OW for TF3 in Russia?

Indeed,it's a mistake,TF4 is well higher than TF3 there.

[Goffe]

Predicting 10% drop for emerging markets, 20% drop for stable markets, 30% drop for markets in bad economy and 40% drop in markets that TF3 showed bad legs.

Predicting TF4 to have slightly lower multiplier then TF3 in China, Russia, South Korea, Australia

TF3 613m (TF3's 15 biggest grosses)TF4 569m

Edited June 29, 2014 by Goffe

[Goffe]

Isn't 16.9 the OW for TF3 in Russia?

 

 

Indeed,it's a mistake,TF4 is well higher than TF3 there.

sorry my mistake, it is +29%.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

900M WW is still big enough to rank 2014 top 3.

[Goffe]

Predicting 10% drop for emerging markets, 20% drop for stable markets, 30% drop for markets in bad economy and 40% drop in markets that TF3 showed bad legs.Predicting TF4 to have slightly lower multiplier then TF3 in China, Russia, South Korea, Australia

TF3 613m (only 10m or higher total grosses)TF4 569m

with that said, 750M is the absolute maximum.

Edited June 29, 2014 by Goffe

[Godzilla]

900M WW is still big enough to rank 2014 top 3.

 

Lol you've always been lowballing this movie, you just said yesterday the film might not cross $800M WW, now you're conceding that it will $900M. The movie will likely hit $1B, and you know it. It might also be #1 of 2014 WW. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Lol you've always been lowballing this movie, you just said yesterday the film might not cross $800M WW, now you're conceding that it will $900M. The movie will likely hit $1B, and you know it. It might also be #1 of 2014 WW. 

Well, at one point (Thursday / early Friday), it did look like to fall in the sub 800m range.

[Godzilla]

Well, at one point (Thursday / early Friday), it did look like to fall in the sub 800m range.

 

Ummm no it didn't. It was just you over-exaggerating as usual. 

[alee7915]

Japan OW will be HUGE!  It will be $60M OW!

[Fullbuster]

Japan OW will be HUGE! It will be $60M OW!

No.

[Fake]

Well I'd say that chances of a Billion are there but it is not locked yet. 950-1050 is the range atm.

[eXtacy]

I don't understand how its doing as well as it is, definitely not getting my money.

Edited June 29, 2014 by eXtacy