2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

[The Panda]

I think Boyhood stands a pretty reasonable chance at winning. Birdman though doesn't. Selma probably has a chance. I don't think Unbroken, Imitation Game, Theory, or anything else can really win. I think Boyhood is underestimated by some. Oh what the hell, Grand Budapest not only pulls a nom, but a surprise win, as well. 

 

While this year has been strong quality wise, it's very weak when it comes to strong awards contenders.  

[Blankments]

I think imitation game can win too, but ric since you're you I'm not gonna believe you for a minute when you say it's "extraordinary"

I don't believe anything Ric says about Oscar season anymore, since the last two years, he's written off the winners of BP as "no chance" until the Guilds Awards made it obvious

[Cmasterclay]

I wouldn't call Imitation Game extraordinary, but it is a very-well done biopic. Cumberbatch IS extraordinary.

[riczhang]

I don't believe anything Ric says about Oscar season anymore, since the last two years, he's written off the winners of BP as "no chance" until the Guilds Awards made it obvious

 

In my defence, everyone thought Argo was dead until the mysterious Guild resurgance/backlash happened. I wasn't the only one calling Argo dead when Affleck was snubbed and I was right in saying that it peaked too early to hit a director nod. Baumer called Argo dead after the Affleck snub, Sasha Stone, all of AW, all the prognosticators. If I remember correctly a respected pundit tweeted, 'BP now between Lincoln, SLP and Life of Pi.' I was justified as writing it off as a no chance winner. The stats had me back up and the momentum had me backed up. Before Argo only 2 films had won with out a BD nom, Driving Miss Daisy and Grand Hotel, one of which was from 1932 in a completely different voting era and set of conditions. There was zero precedent for Argo winning.

 

And 12YAS barely beat Gravity and the only reason it won was the all the main contenders, save a space film, didn't do very well. Otherwise, it wouldn't have won. Looking at the season from around now, 12YAS was the frontrunner atm, but definitely hard to see it as the frontrunner in February b/c of genre and etc. And also the Guild Awards didn't make it obvious; the GG's are not guilds, American Hustle won SAG, 12YAS and Gravity tied at the PGAs and Gravity won at DGA. This was not an obvious BP winner. 

 

 

And also in my defence, I do end up being right pretty often and I at least pick a horse and stick with it. 

Edited November 24, 2014 by riczhang

[Blankments]

Still you thought Meryl had a chance to win for Hope Springs

 

(I actually respect your opinion a lot usually, but I refuse to write off Boyhood until I actually find reason to personally. Unbroken reviews might do that, but I really don't see Imitation Game doing it. I haven't seen it, but I just can't see it beating Boyhood)

[riczhang]

Still you thought Meryl had a chance to win for Hope Springs

 

(I actually respect your opinion a lot usually, but I refuse to write off Boyhood until I actually find reason to personally. Unbroken reviews might do that, but I really don't see Imitation Game doing it. I haven't seen it, but I just can't see it beating Boyhood)

 

 

Well I never thought she had a chance to win. I said she had a chance to get nominated. That post was blown so out of proportion by whoever quoted it, I refuse to dignify that trash with a response. And that was a pretty weak year for Actress up until that point, I mean who the fuck knew Quve-whatever her name is and Nanny would make it in? Meryl could've made it in if she campaigned for that shit and her gracious majesty made a conscious decision not to send out screeners for the film (Deadline reported that it was her decision in the end) to allow all those skinny bitches a fair shot for once. 

 

And honestly, I really don't see Boyhood winning. Everything about Imitation Game screams vote for me over Boyhood and I can only imagine Unbroken being even more so. I really don't see how any Academy voters outside maybe some of the younger, hipper and the Director's branch would even consider voting for Boyhood. Like nothing about it is really up the Academy's wheelhouse. Actors will be behind it because of the craft and that'll get it into BP and get it acting nods, but that's not going to translate into emotional grippingness that gets those votes in the end. I mean Imitation Game, Unbroken, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Whiplash, Theory of Everything, Mr. Turner, Selma, AMVY all have that emotional edge that Boyhood doesn't and half of these aren't even contenders. Boyhood should honestly be thankful that it's going to get nominated and that it's being considered; that is its reward. It winning would honestly be one of the biggest shocks imo because it is such unfriendly material. It'll be like Inherent Vice winning if it had gotten better reviews a la TWBB. 

[Blankments]

See, ric, that's my main issue with your argument. You keep on saying Boyhood isn't emotional. A vast majority of those who like Boyhood like it because of its relatable emotions, and how it manages to touch the heart without being the typical tearjerker or drama. I don't see how, for example of the ones you listed, Interstellar, Whiplash, Mr. Turner, or A Most Violent Year can be considered more emotional than Boyhood (I'll throw Into the Woods in there too).

 

I don't think you can knock Boyhood's emotional response even if you personally didn't have an emotional response to it

[Blankments]

Also, your comparison to Inherent Vice honestly made me shake my head. Force watch an average American on Boyhood and Inherent Vice, and Boyhood's going to get a much more traditional response.

 

For all it's Linklaterness and the central "gimmick," Boyhood is actually a fairly simple to understand and enjoy film unless you're Jay Hollywood

[CoolioD1]

Let the record show that when talking about Meryl, Ric resorts to calling a nine year old girl a bitch.

[riczhang]

Let the record show that when talking about Meryl, Ric resorts to calling a nine year old girl a bitch.

Oh I called her a bitch anyways during the race.

[riczhang]

See, ric, that's my main issue with your argument. You keep on saying Boyhood isn't emotional. A vast majority of those who like Boyhood like it because of its relatable emotions, and how it manages to touch the heart without being the typical tearjerker or drama. I don't see how, for example of the ones you listed, Interstellar, Whiplash, Mr. Turner, or A Most Violent Year can be considered more emotional than Boyhood (I'll throw Into the Woods in there too).

I don't think you can knock Boyhood's emotional response even if you personally didn't have an emotional response to it

Academy loves typical dramas. Even interstellar inside the hole at the end had that tearjerker, look at me oh I'm so important, grand feel to it. There's something about the quality and character of those types of films that boyhood lacks and that is its disadvantage.

[CoolioD1]

Oh I called her a bitch anyways during the race.

I'm glad your so proud of yourself for it.

[The Panda]

In my defence, everyone thought Argo was dead until the mysterious Guild resurgance/backlash happened. I wasn't the only one calling Argo dead when Affleck was snubbed and I was right in saying that it peaked too early to hit a director nod. Baumer called Argo dead after the Affleck snub, Sasha Stone, all of AW, all the prognosticators. If I remember correctly a respected pundit tweeted, 'BP now between Lincoln, SLP and Life of Pi.' I was justified as writing it off as a no chance winner. The stats had me back up and the momentum had me backed up. Before Argo only 2 films had won with out a BD nom, Driving Miss Daisy and Grand Hotel, one of which was from 1932 in a completely different voting era and set of conditions. There was zero precedent for Argo winning.

 

And 12YAS barely beat Gravity and the only reason it won was the all the main contenders, save a space film, didn't do very well. Otherwise, it wouldn't have won. Looking at the season from around now, 12YAS was the frontrunner atm, but definitely hard to see it as the frontrunner in February b/c of genre and etc. And also the Guild Awards didn't make it obvious; the GG's are not guilds, American Hustle won SAG, 12YAS and Gravity tied at the PGAs and Gravity won at DGA. This was not an obvious BP winner. 

 

 

And also in my defence, I do end up being right pretty often and I at least pick a horse and stick with it. 

 

Yes, but you'd still have been a fool to write off 12YAS at any point of the Best Picture cycle.  It was a frontrunner from its release to when it won.

[4815162342]

Ric is very opinionated and sticks to his guns.

[riczhang]

I'm glad your so proud of yourself for it.

 

Oh I am. 

[riczhang]

Yes, but you'd still have been a fool to write off 12YAS at any point of the Best Picture cycle.  It was a frontrunner from its release to when it won.

 

And I didn't write it off. I just said I had a very hard time seeing it winning. And it was true; with the slate that bombed last year, if any of those had been good, 12YAS would've been out of the convo in an instant. And also, I wouldn't argue it was ever a 'frontrunner,' it might've been in the lead, but I don't think it qualifies for the term 'frontrunner' as it is commonly used. 

[CloneWars]

Honestly, I think Blank is right. Boyhood imo seems like something the Academy would go for, and I can really see it winning BP. I think ric is really jumping the gun here.

[The Panda]

And I didn't write it off. I just said I had a very hard time seeing it winning. And it was true; with the slate that bombed last year, if any of those had been good, 12YAS would've been out of the convo in an instant. And also, I wouldn't argue it was ever a 'frontrunner,' it might've been in the lead, but I don't think it qualifies for the term 'frontrunner' as it is commonly used. 

 

12YAS and Gravity were winning just about every precursor (with the exception of American Hustle's SAG win), it was a two way race (with a potential upset from American Hustle).

[The Panda]

Honestly, I think Blank is right. Boyhood imo seems like something the Academy would go for, and I can really see it winning BP. I think ric is really jumping the gun here.

 

Unless Unbroken breaks out critically (and financially), I can't really see anything else winning.  Competition is weak this year.

[Leyla]

Sema

Imitation game

Unbroken

Boyhood

Theory of everything

Birdman

Into the woods

 

 

my gut agrees with Ric

not about the (lack of) emotional aspect but Idk I feel that 'Boyhood' isnt such a strong candidate as the majority thinks. I dont see it winning against Selma/TIG but I def will be very happy to be wrong!

 

 

also the support for GBH in this thread is

Hopefully its not completely