ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' becomes biggest 2024 film

[keysersoze123]

huge increase. What is the total (Adm and €) and where do you see it ending?

[XO21]

Infinity War second Friday was 549k euros. Second Saturday was 977k euros. Looks excellent to me.

[Nakamura]

23 hours ago, pepsa said:

FSS looking at €2.9m I would say. 

Total Fri sat sun =€2.9m = $3.2m ?

[Omni]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

huge increase. What is the total (Adm and €) and where do you see it ending?

29.5/30.0 for 3.9M admissions. Multiplier after this weekend will be closer to 2x than to 2.5x.

[Nakamura]

6 minutes ago, Omni said:

29.5/30.0 for 3.9M admissions. Multiplier after this weekend will be closer to 2x than to 2.5x.

That is 35% higher than $22M of IW. 

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

That is 35% higher than $22M of IW. 

Over 45% in € I think.

[Omni]

7 hours ago, Nakamura said:

That is 35% higher than $22M of IW. 

IW did 18.8 millions, and all data here is in euro. EG will be 55/60% above it.

Passing 30M is very doable if it remains about flat today - or if weather doesn't improve considerably next weekend.

[Omni]

05/05/19 (Sunday)

 

1	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 1.315.973	178.598
2	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 356.939	52.872
3	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 252.731	37.269
4	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 171.950	24.980
5	NON SONO UN ASSASSINO	30/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 124.650	18.999
6	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 111.410	16.636
7	A SPASSO CON WILLY (TERRA WILLY - PLANETE INCONNUE)	18/04/2019	FRA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 105.483	16.203
8	I FRATELLI SISTERS (THE SISTERS BROTHERS)	02/05/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 102.851	15.131
9	DUMBO	28/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 87.807	13.360
10	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 39.216	5.281

 

Dumbo fell below WP and Terra Willy, but its Sunday gross is still more than enough to pass the 11M mark. This is a strong result and hopefully a good sign for Aladdin.

Pretty damn good for Endgame, now at 26 millions. Bohemian Rhapsody is toasted, and - assuming the forecast for next weekend is reliable - 30M is more likely than not.

[pepsa]

Second weekend is the best drop in Italy right? (noramly speaking)

[Omni]

With equal conditions...yes. Of course EG can drop better than 67% next weekend or the weekends after as the 4-day opening was greatly inflated by the holidays.

Usually movies in Italy drop well-to-decently on their 2nd weekend, even the big blockbusters - and the disappear quickly as soon as they get out of the top 4/6. The three main reasons are likely: 1) the substantial assence of any previews/midnight thing (Endgame was the exception, and even that had just a couple of showings at midnight); 2) the competition for the screens (see China on a smaller scale); 3) the (lack of) culture element: Italian moviegoers rarely watch a movie more than once and they often just go to the theaters and see what's the offering - with the obvious result that the movies with lesser showtimes are hurt (recent exceptions for the non-repeat viewing rule are Bohemian Rhapsody (endogenous cause) and a few Oscar winners (exogenous cause)).

Edited May 6, 2019 by Omni

[Omni]

WEEKEND ACTUALS 2-5 MAY

- all in million € -

 

RANK	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	PROJECTED GROSS
1	Avengers: Endgame	3.93	-67%	26.08	30.00
2	Stan & Ollie	0.85	NEW	1.08	2.70
3	Ma Cosa Ci Dice il Cervello (It)	0.61	-51%	4.46	5.10
4	Hotel Mumbai	0.43	NEW	0.58	1.10
5	Non Sono un Assassino (It)	0.30	NEW	0.43	0.80
6	The Sisters Brothers	0.25	NEW	0.25	0.60
7	Wonder Park	0.16	-43%	1.80	2.00
8	Terra Willy (Fr)	0.15	-43%	0.85	1.00
9	The Curse of La Llorona	0.15	-60%	1.84	2.00
10	Dumbo	0.14	-60%	11.03	0.30

 

Weekend was overall fine only thanks to bad weather and Avengers.

It's up 16.9% from the same weekend last year (which was pretty bad due to the good weather). 2019 is now back above 2018 (first time after January): +0.09%.

 

Avengers held relatively well, mostly thanks to the bad weather. IW got a 2.2x multiplier from its 2nd weekend, which was not inflated by meteorological factors. Captain Marvel got slightly less than that. Endgame will get anything between 1.9x and 2.3x depending on how weather will improve - and considering an improvement doesn't look likely before next week, a finish above 30M is certainly more probable than not.

Which means that ALICE IN WONDERLAND (30.4M) is in serious trouble.

 

Stan & Ollie got a solid opening well above the 100K admissions. It should end with a respectable total.

Ma Cosa Ci Dice il Cervello will get a multiplier closer to 5x than to 4x. The total gross is not stellar, but it's still the 2nd best result of the year so far for a local product.

 

This week:

* Pet Sematary > probably the average number for a horror movie (opening close to 1M, total around 2)

* Detective Pikachu > unfortunately I don't really know what to think about this; we don't have any indication by presales as we're in Italy; from a personal experience, the trailer never got any reaction (just a kid saying "look the Pokémons") - but I can't make a prediction out of this

The rest: Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile...and a couple of local products I frankly don't care about.

[Omni]

06/05/19 (Monday)

 

1	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 248.621	39.309
2	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 47.521	8.597
3	IL GIOVANE PICASSO	06/05/2019	GBR	NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A.	€ 39.623	4.577
4	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 26.587	4.779
5	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 21.714	4.223
6	I FRATELLI SISTERS (THE SISTERS BROTHERS)	02/05/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 16.650	3.101
7	NON SONO UN ASSASSINO	30/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 13.639	2.611
8	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 10.285	1.669
9	L'UOMO CHE COMPRO' LA LUNA	04/04/2019	ITA	INDIGO FILM	€ 5.566	945
10	DUMBO	28/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 4.465	894

 

Very weak dailies - shows how much the weekend was helped by low temperatures and rain.

Endgame now on par with IW (243K). Here's how that one held during its 3rd week:

 

IW vs EG

 

Mon > 243K vs 249K

Tue > 239K (-2%)

Wed > 206K (-14%)

Thu > 156 (-24%)

Fri > 222K (+42%)

Sat > 406K (+83%)

Sun > 350K (-14%)

 

And the TOP 5 for Hollywood movies (Cinetel = incomplete but official)

 

1. Avatar > 65.67

2. Titanic > 50.22

3. Alice in Wonderland > 30.39

4. Ice Age 3 > 29.69

5. Bohemian Rhapsody > 28.89

 

Aaaand the TOP 5 with complete numbers "released" (when they feel like it) by Siae:

 

1. Titanic > 71.10

2. Avatar > 66.80

3. The Lion King > 32.90

4. Ice Age 3 > 31.15

5. Alice in Wonderland > 31.00

(Endgame need approx 30.5M to be revised up to 31+ by Siae)

 

We'll see...

[Nakamura]

What does the 39.309 behind the 249k mean? 

[anti-Pedantic]

1 hour ago, Nakamura said:

What does the 39.309 behind the 249k mean? 

Attendance ~ 39,309

[Omni]

07/05/19 (Tuesday)

 

1	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 267.163	43.334
2	IL GIOVANE PICASSO	06/05/2019	GBR	NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A.	€ 58.275	6.700
3	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 55.929	10.240
4	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 27.406	5.100
5	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 27.060	5.335
6	I FRATELLI SISTERS (THE SISTERS BROTHERS)	02/05/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 18.920	3.473
7	NON SONO UN ASSASSINO	30/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 16.503	3.323
8	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 10.481	1.802
9	SHAZAM!	03/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 7.859	2.236
10	L'UOMO CHE COMPRO' LA LUNA	04/04/2019	ITA	INDIGO FILM	€ 7.134	1.265

 

Discount tickets made Shazam! see the top 10 one last time.

Endgame held better than Infinity War. With some more bad weather both this weekend and the weekend after, beating Alice has become a near-lock.

 

Mon > 243K vs 249K

Tue > 239K (-2%) vs 267K (+8%)

Wed > 206K (-14%)

Thu > 156 (-24%)

Fri > 222K (+42%)

Sat > 406K (+83%)

Sun > 350K (-14%)

[Omni]

08/05/19 (Wednesday)

 

1	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 269.579	46.370
2	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 63.882	12.328
3	IL GIOVANE PICASSO	06/05/2019	GBR	NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A.	€ 62.312	7.078
4	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 35.516	6.996
5	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 29.522	5.654
6	I FRATELLI SISTERS (THE SISTERS BROTHERS)	02/05/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 21.143	4.074
7	NON SONO UN ASSASSINO	30/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 19.049	3.815
8	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 10.064	1.824
9	L'UOMO CHE COMPRO' LA LUNA	04/04/2019	ITA	INDIGO FILM	€ 6.611	1.239
10	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 6.446	1.361

 

A very tiny increase for Endgame, not bad but since Wednesday is the strongest of weekdays it's not exciting either. I have the feeling it drops 40%+ today.

If EG just mirrors IW's grosses from today to the rest of its run, it will end up at 29.55M. In order to beat Alice in Wonderland as the highest grossing non-Cameron movie ever (by Cinetel #s) it has to find an extra 800K.

 

Mon > 243K vs 249K

Tue > 239K (-2%) vs 267K (+8%)

Wed > 206K (-14%) vs 269K (+1%)

Thu > 156 (-24%)

Fri > 222K (+42%)

Sat > 406K (+83%)

Sun > 350K (-14%)

Finish with IW's grosses from here on > 29.55 (800K below Alice)

 

About Detective Pikachu, which opens today, it's got a strong late boost in advertisement (many many tv spots) - meaning they likely didn't feel like advertising it before EG and just waste their money. That said, the number of showtimes it's receiving is far from stellar: at the theater near where I live, for example, it has 21 showings over the 4-day weekend, which is much lower than what Dumbo had, a little more than half of what EG still has on its 3rd weekend and just a little more than the 18 showings of Pet Sematary. It's true that a high number of showings doesn't directly translate into a big gross (see The Grinch for example: 35+ showings and sub-2M opening) but to just have about twenty on OW isn't the greatest of signs.

[Nakamura]

1 hour ago, Omni said:

08/05/19 (Wednesday)

 

1	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 269.579	46.370
2	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 63.882	12.328
3	IL GIOVANE PICASSO	06/05/2019	GBR	NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A.	€ 62.312	7.078
4	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 35.516	6.996
5	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 29.522	5.654
6	I FRATELLI SISTERS (THE SISTERS BROTHERS)	02/05/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 21.143	4.074
7	NON SONO UN ASSASSINO	30/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 19.049	3.815
8	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 10.064	1.824
9	L'UOMO CHE COMPRO' LA LUNA	04/04/2019	ITA	INDIGO FILM	€ 6.611	1.239
10	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 6.446	1.361

 

A very tiny increase for Endgame, not bad but since Wednesday is the strongest of weekdays it's not exciting either. I have the feeling it drops 40%+ today.

If EG just mirrors IW's grosses from today to the rest of its run, it will end up at 29.55M. In order to beat Alice in Wonderland as the highest grossing non-Cameron movie ever (by Cinetel #s) it has to find an extra 800K.

 

Mon > 243K vs 249K

Tue > 239K (-2%) vs 267K (+8%)

Wed > 206K (-14%) vs 269K (+1%)

Thu > 156 (-24%)

Fri > 222K (+42%)

Sat > 406K (+83%)

Sun > 350K (-14%)

Finish with IW's grosses from here on > 29.55 (800K below Alice)

 

About Detective Pikachu, which opens today, it's got a strong late boost in advertisement (many many tv spots) - meaning they likely didn't feel like advertising it before EG and just waste their money. That said, the number of showtimes it's receiving is far from stellar: at the theater near where I live, for example, it has 21 showings over the 4-day weekend, which is much lower than what Dumbo had, a little more than half of what EG still has on its 3rd weekend and just a little more than the 18 showings of Pet Sematary. It's true that a high number of showings doesn't directly translate into a big gross (see The Grinch for example: 35+ showings and sub-2M opening) but to just have about twenty on OW isn't the greatest of signs.

So starting from next week, EG will not be played in the thearers anymore? 

[Omni]

1 hour ago, Nakamura said:

So starting from next week, EG will not be played in the thearers anymore? 

And how did you reach that conclusion?

[Legion Again]

5 hours ago, Omni said:

Alice in Wonderland as the highest grossing non-Cameron movie ever

You guys are a funny market 😛 

[Omni]

09/05/19 (Thursday)

 

1	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 314.788	48.892
2	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 152.943	23.219
3	PET SEMATARY	09/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 75.079	11.923
4	TED BUNDY - FASCINO CRIMINALE (EXTREMELY WICKED, SHOCKINGLY EVIL AND VILE)	09/05/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 64.483	10.350
5	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 36.159	6.263
6	RED JOAN	09/05/2019	GBR	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 15.758	2.840
7	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 15.560	2.692
8	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 14.225	2.488
9	IL GRANDE SPIRITO	09/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 12.134	2.191
10	I FRATELLI SISTERS (THE SISTERS BROTHERS)	02/05/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 8.522	1.386

 

Not bad at all for Detective Pikachu. Failure wisely avoided. It remains to be seen if it performs like a kids movie (in that case, 4M OW and 10M total are even possible) or if it attracts a more adult audience (3M OW/7-8M total) or again if it's just attracting the fans and will show rapid signs of frontloadness.

Endgame...first bad daily gross for it. -43%, in line with my pessimistic prediction of yesterday. It's now fallen behind IW, and while it will recover over the weekend thanks to the worse weather, it's likely looking at a 60%+ drop from last weekend.

 

Mon > 243K vs 249K

Tue > 239K (-2%) vs 267K (+8%)

Wed > 206K (-14%) vs 269K (+1%)

Thu > 156 (-24%) vs 153K (-43%)

Fri > 222K (+42%)

Sat > 406K (+83%)

Sun > 350K (-14%) 

Finish with IW's grosses from here on > 29.55 (800K below Alice - no change)